November 14, 2006

6 Billion Yen

Or $51,110,000.

Peter Gammons's comments, as posted by SoSHer JohntheBaptist:
-would be "shocked" if deal didn't get done
-sox want 5 years, boras wants 3
-"he's the best pitcher on the market, youngest pitcher on market"
-red sox can market, "sell all their games in japan"
-theo did a lot consulting w japanese teams
-thinks 30-40% of the great players in world will be coming out of asia
-sox feel very strongly "he's the best pitcher on market"
-thinks biggest adjustment will be his pitching every 5th day, instead of once a week
-think they may use 6 starters here and there
-DM sometimes throws "200 pitches day before start to warm up"
-In WBC, everyone was notedly impressed by his control of all pitches
-Thinks Sox will get another starter to build up depth
-Thinks Yankees aren't worried about "responding," Cashman too smart
-Hopeful about Pavano coming back, throwing 200 IP
-MFY aren't in love with Zito
-Loves their two trades
-Sees Hughes in rotation in July
-Cashman wants to get younger
-Thinks Sox/Yankees are beyond the "arms race" in offseason
SoSHer ragecage:
Minor point, but I just caught the replay of the Gammons interview. When I first read your point about Theo's consulting, I took it to be in regards to the posting bid (I probably just mis-interpreted), but when I listened again he mentioned the consulting in regards to two Japanese teams Theo consulted with last Fall/Winter, when he was away from the RS. When you look at it from that perspective, you get an idea of how long this has been brewing in the RS FO (if not even much longer as some have suggested). Without having details, when you add this all up, you get the sense that this was a long time coming, and they wanted to leave nothing to chance.
And geoduck no quahog:
What is it about JWH's money compartments that some people don't understand?

If Henry wanted to buy the John Hancock Building with $50M leverage, would some be complaining about the impact on Red Sox financials?

The posting bid is a sunk cost based on a return-on-investment related to Asian marketing and relationship issues. It has nothing to do with Red Sox payroll. It's a cost that was calculated outside of payroll based on smart people's assessments of potential return.

I have yet to hear or read any impact of the posting on the Red Sox' intention to maintain (or increase) payroll. Complain about Matsuzaka's "cost" after the contract is negotiated.
tywebb444:
For those of you who aren't pleased with the amount of money or with Matsuzaka himself, would you have been happier with a 5 year 80 million offer for Zito? Personally I'd rather take the 26 yr old, with 4+ pitches and who lets us put our foot in the Japanese market. Oh yeah and a ton of potential to boot. Of course it's a risky move for the money and the fact that he hasn't pitched in the majors, but none of the options out there are better for us.
drleather2001:
First of all, the Japanese Leagues are at LEAST comparable to AAA, I believe. And this guy has been tearing the shit out of the Japanese League for several years. He's as close to a sure thing as anyone is going to get coming from out there, so saying he hasn't proven anything is a little unfair, don't you think? You can only win the games you're allowed to play in, after all.
I know not every Red Sox fan is head over heels about this deal, but how can you say this is not FUN? This winter will not be dull.

7 comments:

allan said...

To me, hitting other teams over the head with your checkbook isn't "fun." ... To paraphrase the punch-line of the Mastercard commercials:
"Watching Sox fans who cursed the Yankees for "buying championships" go into raptures over this obscene deal: priceless!"


Almost ten years ago, the Red Sox dropped $75 million (and two of our top pitching prospects) for another 26-year-old pitcher who was good, but had only one super-duper ace season.

I don't remember that being called "obscene" in too many circles -- and Pedro did bring us a championship, and I don't think that many fans felt we "bought" it.

Of course, DM will likely not come to Boston and put up the greatest seasons ever thrown by a pitcher like Pedro did, but the point is the Red Sox have $ and they spend $.

Peter N said...

And the up side dwarfs the down side...this is an all around great business deal. The $51.1 million? Already in the profits for next year for the business called the Red Sox. And the rotation..way better. Right? And the Boras dealings? No other teams. No other agenda. Two camps that want the deal done. Welcome to part one of 2007. AND SMILE. I am

Jim said...

Jack, I guess you wouldn't have much fun at a silent auction. Sox were forced to 'overbid' cuz they had no idea what Yanks would come in at, and quite rightly, feared the worst. I think it's fun that rather than piss and moan about being outbid by the Evil Empire yet again, we can eagerly look forward to a winter of more good player moves. All the stories point to the Sox having stalked Dice-K for awhile--I'd be shocked if they suddenly went cheap.
Fun to me is winning, Jack. There is extra fun here cuz a Sox failure on the field will be accompanied by world-wide laughter. And like I said earlier, you're never going to know whose pockets the posting fee comes out of, or how many pockets ALL of the future Japanese business deals go into.
Let the signings begin.

laura k said...

Jack, lighten up and enjoy it! This is Christmas, and you're the Grinch.

allan said...

Jack, if Rice's doggrel and merely the idea of "playing the game right" is what matters, then almost any cheap-ass baseball owner should satisfy you.

You know JWH et al. are making gobs of money off Fenway and the Red Sox. And they are putting it back into improving the team.

Would you rather Henry stash those extra millions in his wallet while keeping Jason Johnson or Sexy Lips as our #5? Not me.

Call this an MFY move if you must, but those are the rules as set out by MLB and the Red Sox played fair.

And you can take an estimated (and sizeable) $120 million Red Sox payroll, toss in the $51 million bid for DM and his 2007 salary (say $12 million) -- and STILL not match a $200 MFY payroll.

It is obvious that the team had been scouting DM for at least 3-4 years with this day/week in mind. Maybe that's one reason why they did not want to overpay for Pedro -- a wise decision in hindsight (though who knows if he would have been similarly injuried in Boston) -- and said Bye Bye Johnny (also a wise move).

In 2007, we will have three starters age 26 or younger -- Beckett, Papelbon and the Dice Man. When Lester returns, we'll have four.

This is good news.

laura k said...

Oh goodlord, Grantland Rice and the Great Scorer. I missed that last time I was here. My teeth are aching from the sacchrine.

But back here on planet earth, we are watching our favourite game and our favorite team, and we want them to win.

Lucky for us the FO is playing by the official rules, not the Jack Marshall rules.

Anonymous said...

Hey all. New guy here.

If the Sox have been looking at Matsuzaka for so long, why didn't they pick him up for a much lower price than $51.1 before the WBC brought him to the attention of other major league teams? From what I understand, this bidding process is the result of a previously standing agreement between MLB and the Japanese leagues to keep American teams from stealing away all of the young Japanese talent. Is this the first year Matsuzaka is elligible under this rule?

For the nay-sayers who think this is "obscene," this is just an example of capitalism at its best. What's worse than a silent auction with a billionaire? How about being that billionaire and finding out your most coveted prize was lost to another rich man in the room?

So what is the risk associated with the $51.1? Zip. Zero. Nada. This sunk cost will be made back with gained revenues in the East. The real risk the Sox take will be what they agree to pay an unproven arm (and I've heard everything between $10 to $19 million per). The Sox made an investment in their future that they think will have greater returns than what they put into it.