Lindy's 2022 Preview: Red Sox Predicted To Finish 4th & Make Postseason

[Note: If anyone is able to send me scans or even cell phone pics of the AL/NL predictions and Red Sox/Yankees previews from the Athlon and/or Street & Smith magazines, that would be great. The store in my small town doesn't carry them.]

AL East

Blue Jays
Yankees
Rays
Red Sox
Orioles

Red Sox

Few teams have had as impressive or dramatic a turn-around as the Red Sox did last year, going from a last-place finish in 2020 to not only making the playoffs but also coming within two wins of capturing the AL pennant. . . .

That type of up-and-down trajectory has been all too common for the franchise. In the last 10 years, the team has won two World Series titles and four AL East crowns, and also finished fifth in the division four separate times. . . .

The floor for this roster is higher than most probably expected after the 2020 disaster. Bloom deserves plaudits for addressing Boston's major problem: pitching. But will the Red Sox owners, now that the team is back on a winning track, re-open their pocketbook to raise the ceiling? With how tough the rest of the East is, it's hard to imagine lightning striking twice without some help on the ground.

Rotation: Last season reminded everyone just how good a healthy Nathan Eovaldi can be. His success in 2020 was built on limiting walks; last year he cut down on home runs, once a persistent issue for him. Eovaldi also benefited from throwing his too-hittable cutter less in favor of more curveballs — his best pitch — and sliders. Chris Sale looked rusty . . . in his return from Tommy John surgery . . . His fastball velocity fluctuated and was down from his pre-injury years. Sale's slider was his only reliable secondary, with his changeup losing some bite. . . . Nick Pivetta took a big step forward . . . doing a better job placing his fastball at the top of the strike zone to set up his elite curveball at the bottom. Pivetta is frustratingly inconsistent and inefficient, but he can be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. If Rich Hill can stay healthy, he should be able to help with his ability to throw quality strikes consistently. At age 42, though, he's a five-and-fly guy, and last year's sticky-stuff crackdown took spin off his curveball. Michael Wacha will be the default fifth starter, although he doesn't miss enough bats  . . . Hill or Wacha could give way to Tanner Houck, whose vicious slider and excellent velocity helped him forge a 11.3 K/9 IP rate last year.

Bullpen: Garrett Whitlock [went] from Rule 5 draft pick to postseason relief ace . . . His 96-mph sinker consistently avoids the barrel of bats, and his secondaries missed bats entirely. [He might also be used as a starter this year.] Matt Barnes went from All-Star closer in the first half last year to nonentity in the second, due to a too-heavy workload and a positive COVID diagnosis. Barnes' occasional command issues are frightening . . . Ryan Brasier reemerged as one of Alex Cora's preferred right-handed setup men late last year. However, his high strikeout totals did not make the trip with him. . . . COVID wrecked Josh Taylor's 2020 season, but he didn't miss a beat in his return, racking up whiffs as Boston's top lefty. . . . Hirokazu Sawamura . . . faded late. His virtually unhittable splitter helps make up for shaky command. The rest of his arsenal is so-so.

Catcher: Don't be surprised if this is Christian Vazquez's final season in Boston. After a poor showing at the plate last year and set to turn 32 in August, he appears to be in fast fade. The excessively high BABIP that helped him to a career year in 2020 vanished last year, and in its place was a lot of weak contact. . . . Kevin Plawecki is an able backup, and prospect Connor Wong is about a year away.

Infield: First baseman Bobby Dalbec is a king of two true outcomes: home runs and strikeouts. A second-half surge last year (.269/.344/.611) saved his roster spot, but persistent contact issues keep Dalbec in and out of the lineup. . . . Triston Casas [should get] a look. Kike Hernandez . . . as a hitter is best suited to be a part-time player, but his defense [at second base] makes him a viable starter. . . . Xander Bogaerts is as reliable a hitter as there is in the league. He does it with a blend of patience, contact and power. . . . However, his glove is a problem. Per Statcast, his minus-9 Outs Above Average last year ranked in the low-end percentile among shortstops. Like Bogaerts, Rafael Devers is a foundational franchise piece. No one else on the team boasts the raw power he has, and last year he simultaneously cut down on strikeouts and upped his walk rate. Like Bogaerts, Devers isn't cut out for his position . . .

Outfield: On one hand, [Alex Verdugo is] a patient hitter who avoids excessive whiffs, makes quality contact and can handle fastballs. On the other hand, he struggles to get the barrel on the ball, frequently driving it into the ground. . . . [I]t doesn't add up to as much production as you would expect. . . . Jackie Bradley is a superb center fielder, but he was the worst hitter in MLB last year . . . [T]here's not much reason to expect better from Bradley. . . . The left fielder will be determined during spring training. At the top of the depth chart is Jarren Duran . . . Rob Refsnyder also is available. [With the signing of Trevor Story to play second base, Hernandez will spend most of his time in the outfield.]

Designated Hitter: J.D. Martinez . . . was at the forefront of the team's resurgence [in 2021]. Locking in on fastballs was crucial for Martinez. He went from hitting .184 with a .377 slugging percentage against heaters in 2020 to .270 and .479, respectively, last year. There's no question that Martinez has slipped from his 2015-2019 salad days, but there is no reason to believe he has emptied his MLB tank.

Organization/Management: . . . Alex Cora was back in the manager's chair last year, and it probably was no coincidence that the team flourished again. Cora fosters clubhouse chemistry, and he is a superb motivator and leader. His tactical decision-making is open to debate. Cora sometimes lets his emotions and the moment dictate his strategy. . . . Chaim Bloom [is] a shrewd judge of player talent, has done well revitalizing Boston's farm system, and has turned the team's fortunes around much faster than most would have imagined  . . . It would help Bloom should principal owner John Henry relent on his newfound stinginess.

Yankees

The Yankees were less than the sum of their parts last year. . . . [The MFY] stumbled its way to 92 wins — the Yankees spent less time in first place in the AL East than the Orioles did — and barely made the playoffs. Their postseason stay was short, too, with their hated rival, the Red Sox, easily dispatching them in the Wild-Card game. It's now 12 years and counting without a World Series title or pennant for the Yankees . . .

Along the way, there have been some odd and hard-to-explain stumbles: wrong turns for Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres; a refusal to spend beyond the occasional splurge for an upper-echelon player . . . a roster so shallow and inflexible that Rougned Odor and Brett Gardner were counted on for regular playing time last year. . . . [T]he 2021 squad . . . couldn't hit, couldn't field, couldn't stay healthy and couldn't find consistency . . . [T]he Yankees can't act like they don't need help . . .

Rotation: Aside from some panic concerning his spin-rate dip during MLB's sticky stuff crackdown, Gerrit Cole's 2021 season was ace-level. There are some cracks in the foundation — fewer whiffs and less bite on his curveball than in his Houston years — but Cole still pumps fastballs at 98 mph with a strikeout rate better than 30 percent. Jordan Montgomery gave the Yankees unexpected volume and durability . . . grinding out five- and six-inning starts . . . [He] throws strikes (albeit hittable ones) . . . What Luis Severino can contribute after missing essentially three seasons because of elbow and shoulder injuries is anyone's guess. . . . Nestor Cortes was a big surprise last year, racking up quality starts and strikeouts as a fill-in starter. . . .  Domingo German remains a back-end starter with some upside . . . although he needs to locate [his fastball] better . . . Jamison Taillon, recovering from ankle surgery, is due back in April. . . .

Bullpen: Closer Aroldis Chapman . . . struggles to throw strikes regularly, and batters are making plenty of loud contact. . . . Jonathan Loaisiga is a multi-inning weapon in high-leverage situations . . . Chad Green contributes quality late-inning work . . . Clay Holmes was swiped from the Pirates . . . and morphed into a valuable asset. . . .

Catcher: Gary Sanchez crawled his way back toward respectability last season, returning to league-average production offensively. . . . [H]e still ranks as one of the Yankees' big disappointments. . . . [H]e now hits a lot of harmless fly balls and pop-ups . . . [H]e hasn't improved his pitch recognition and continues to flail at off-speed pitches and breaking balls. . . . He remains a poor blocker whose . . . strong arm . . . doesn't make up for his shortcomings. [The MFY finally wised up and traded Mr. Maniloaf, aka the Crouch Potato, to the Twins.] . . . Backup Kyle Higashioka is . . . a weak hitter.

Infield: A balky left knee kept first baseman Luke Voit out of the lineup at times . . . [P]itchers . . . are challenging him with off-speed and breaking stuff, which confounds him. After two miserable years at shortstop, Gleyber Torres is back at second base. . . . [H]e struggles to reach balls hit to his right. Offensively, Torres remains a mystery. . . . Gio Urshela . . . was too aggressive at the plate last season, getting himself out with whiffs and weak ground balls. He no longer looks like a viable regular. DJ LeMahieu . . . didn't make enough quality contact in 2021, and his days as an above-average defender are probably over. . . . [H]is skillset might be in terminal decline.

Outfield: Left fielder Joey Gallo didn't make an impact . . . striking out too much, even by his standards. . . . Just like in 2019, Aaron Hicks spent more of the 2021 season off the field than on it . . . [I]t came with a big downturn in his offense — an increase in whiffs and dip in walks. Advanced metrics indicate Hicks has lost a significant step in center field. . . . Strikeouts will always be part of [Aaron] Judge's game . . . while his defense grades out as average.

Designated Hitter: Giancarlo Stanton . . . comes with routine injury concerns, no defensive or base-running value, and $179 million owed to him over the next six years.

Organization/Management: It's not exactly clear how or why Aaron Boone kept his job after last season . . . He was hammering square pegs into round holes and trying to convince fans and reporters that they fit perfectly. . . . This will be Brian Cashman's 25th year in charge of the Yankees [and] the roster-building of late has not been good enough. . . . [T]he Steinbrenners have reduced the cash flow to a trickle . . . in-house moves - Gleyber Torres' disastrous stint at shortstop, Gary Sanchez's lack of progress, the stop-and-start development of young pitching - haven't panned out.

Scout's Take: . . . If George was still alive, Boone would be gone for sure. George wouldn't like it that they've won the World Series once in the last 21 years. . . They have so much swing-and-miss and all-or-nothing in their lineup. They kind of remind me of a beer-league slow-pitch softball team.

AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Astros
AL WC: Red Sox, Rays, Mariners, Yankees
AL: Champions: White Sox

AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
AL Cy Young: Shane Bieber, Guardians
AL Rookie: Spencer Torkelson, Tigers
AL Manager: Scott Servais, Mariners

NL East: Atlanta
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Dodgers
NL WC: Cardinals Mets, Padres, Phillies
NL Champions: Dodgers

NL MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres
NL Cy Young: Zack Wheeler, Phillies
NL Rookie: Alek Thomas, Diamondbacks
NL Manager: Buck Showalter, Mets

HEY, YOU! WHO THE FUCK STILL READS A BLOG? . . . ANYWAY, SOME
REAL NEWS! I'M RUNNING THE METS, BABY, ME AND MY MIGHTY BINDERS
OF AWESOME! TOO BAD WE WON'T GET TO POUND THE PISS OUT OF YOU
LOSERS THIS YEAR! JUST WATCH HOW A REAL TEAM GETS IT DONE!