Lindy's Sports Baseball 2023 Preview

If anyone out there is considering starting a Yankee Schandenfreude blog, posting bits of the Red Sox's 2023 preview from Lindy's Sports' baseball annual would not be the worst way to kick things off.

In other words, these editors do not like the Red Sox's chances this season. In fact, they are picking Boston to finish sixth in the five-team American League East. Brutal. Okay, that's an exaggeration, but they certainly have a glass half-empty outlook (or the glass shattered and the liquid soaked into the ground). Here is how it begins:

What exactly are the Red Sox doing?

I read that question and instantly thought of Greil Marcus's infamous Rolling Stone review of Bob Dylan's 1970 Self Portrait album. Marcus started his 7,000-word screed with these four words:

What is this shit?

Things get steadily worse from there.

That was one of the big baseball questions of the offseason, as Boston spent the winter making offers to seemingly every free agent on the market, but routinely coming up short; let its franchise shortstop leave after underbidding him the entire time; and enters 2023 with a roster that feels half-finished. Last year's Red Sox squad was an injury-riddled mess that barely made it to the season's end, limping into last place. After such a disappointing offseason, it's hard to see how exactly this year's edition is supposed to be much better.

Great seats are available NOW!

[NOTE: I was expecting to see what Athlon and Street & Smith had to say during a trip to Oregon earlier this month, but I could not find either magazine. If anyone feels like napping some cellphone pics of the relevant pages and emailing them to me, I'll devote a post to them.]

This shitty situation is directly connected to the "self-inflicted wound" of trading Mookie Betts, according to Lindy's, a bad decision at the time and one that "has only gotten worse". The current roster is "woefully short of depth, especially pitching-wise and in high-end talent". (Yeah, but those aren't really important concerns, right?)

Chaim Bloom's on-the-fly rebuild has been bumpy, messy, often confusing, and ocasionally blundered. . . . [T]he driving impulse seems to be to slash costs wherever and whenever possible. Boston won't contend with this team, and it's an open question as to when Red Sox fans can expect that to happen again.

Some scouts say: "How did it get away from them so quickly? . . . They could be sitting in last place for a long time."

Here is Lindy's prediction for the AL East and the various awards:

Yankees
Blue Jays
Rays
Orioles
Red Sox

Other division winners: Guardians, Astros / Atlanta, Cardinals, Padres

Wild Cards: Blue Jays, Rays, Texas, White Sox / Mets, Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers

Pennant winners: Yankees / Atlanta

MVPs: Kyle Tucker, Astros / Manny Machado, Padres

Cy Youngs: Dylan Cease, White Sox / Corbin Burnes, Brewers

Managers of the Year: Bruce Bochy, Texas / Bob Melvin, Padres

Rookies of the Year: Gunnar Henderson, Orioles / Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks

Rookies Pitchers of the Year: Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles / Andrew Painter, Phillies

Let's take a closer look:

Starting Pitching

Despite barely pitching the last two seasons due to injury, Chris Sale is penciled into the rotation atop it. . . . Nick Pivetta is a lock to finish every season with about a 4.50 ERA. . . . [H]e struggles to command [his stuff] and he's far too hittable when he's in the strike zone . . . Corey Kluber couldn't overcome his fastball falling below 90 mph last season . . . he couldn't draw enough swings-and-misses to offset an increase in hard contact. . . . Garrett Whitlock didn't take fully to being a starter last year . . . Boston will try again this year, and with good reason, given Whitlock's above-average arsenal and high strikeout potential. Lefty James Paxton hasn't appeared in a major-league game since 2020. . . .

Bullpen

After a year of constant blown saves and late-inning meltdowns, Boston imported Kenley Jansen to add stability. [Jensen] los[t] velocity last season and has seen his control slip . . . All Chris Martin does is throw strikes . . . He misses bats with fastballs up, cutters away, and splitters and sliders down. John Schreiber broke out last season as Boston's most reliable reliever. Shoulder problems have diminished Matt Barnes' effectiveness. He's lost velocity . . . and has a tendency to lose control . . . Joely Rodriguez takes over as the primary lefty in the bullpen. Too many walks sunk him with the Mets, but he's good at avoiding homers and getting whiffs . . .

Catcher

After trading Christian Vazquez last summer, the Red Sox opted to hand the catcher position to the tandem of Reese McGuire and Connor Wong, and then decided to let that duo hold onto the spot through the winter. That says more about Boston's unwillingness to spend than anything positive about either guy. McGuire is a glove-first catcher who rode an inflated BABIP to a nice second half, but he's a below-average hitter with little to no pop. Wong is a contact-first hitter with minimal thump and a glove that's probably average at best.

Infield

Triston Casas . . . arrived in Boston down the stretch and showed excellent power and patience. . . . [H]e has a great eye at the plate and a lot of thunder in his big left-handed stroke. . . . Trevor Story [moves] from second base to shortstop . . . Arm troubles and the presence of [Xander] Bogaerts forced Story off the position last year and over to second, where he was excellent. Offensively, Story was a mess, too aggressive and streaky . . . Christian Arroyo [at second base] . . . is best deployed as a platoon bat against lefties, and he grades out as a below-average defender. . . . Rafael Devers is easily the best hitter on the team, marrying top-of-the-charts bat speed with plus-plus power and a freakish ability to cover the plate. He's improving defensively, too, making fewer mistakes and curbing his rushed throws. Considering Devers is just 27 years old, Boston made a wise decision in keeping him around for the long term.

Outfield

Alex Verdugo keeps going backward . . . Verdugo's ceiling looks to be a 2-WAR outfielder with inconsistent offense, not enough power, deer-in-the-headlights defense, and a propensity for boneheaded base running. Verdugo has plenty of tools, but seems at a loss as to how to develop or use them. Back problems kept Enrique Hernandez off the field most of last year, turning center field into a black hole for Boston. . . . Most of Hernandez's value comes with his glove. As a hitter . . . he can't handle right-handed pitching on a regular basis . . . Masataka Yoshida is coming from Japan as essentially the foreign version of Andrew Benintendi. Yoshida is a contact hitter with a gap-to-gap style and a power tool that grades out at 15-20 homers a season. Helping Yoshida along is his potential 70-grade plate discipline, as evidenced by low strikeout and huge walk rates in Japan. He is limited defensively . . .

Designated Hitter

Justin Turner is getting close to the finish line, but the Red Sox hope he has one or two more good years left in his bat. Being a regular DH should keep him healthier. . . .

Organization/Management

Alex Cora can't escape the inconsistency that has plagued the franchise the last decade. Two wins away from the World Series in 2021, he oversaw a last-place team in 2022 . . . Boston had a dozen players serve time on the IL in July, and went 8-19 for the month. Not that Cora helped much. His frantic bullpen management and hyper-aggressive style tend to exacerbate mistakes and shallow rosters. . . . [T]his team is unlikely to win [Chaim Bloom] much praise. That's in large part Bloom's own fault. . . . Bloom's trades have not yielded much fruit. The farm system has improved, albeit slowly . . .

On the plus side, the games will be over quicker.