tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5730822.post4468188068855347741..comments2024-03-28T19:45:50.194-07:00Comments on the joy of sox: More Projected Standingsallanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04673233312198832937noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5730822.post-29728926175416662212011-01-25T16:53:28.490-08:002011-01-25T16:53:28.490-08:00But we are still winning the East.
And we might b...<i>But we are still winning the East.</i><br /><br />And we might be winning it even more.Benjaminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00421785398444449007noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5730822.post-56649574166863272232011-01-25T16:01:33.684-08:002011-01-25T16:01:33.684-08:00so a day later those sims are already out of date
...<i>so a day later those sims are already out of date</i><br /><br />But we are still winning the East.allanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04673233312198832937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5730822.post-90487651362411442002011-01-25T12:59:47.850-08:002011-01-25T12:59:47.850-08:00Toronto flipped Napoli to Texas for Frank Francisc...Toronto <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/01/25/blue-jays-trade-just-acquired-mike-napoli-to-the-rangers-for-frank-francisco/" rel="nofollow">flipped Napoli</a> to Texas for Frank Francisco, so a day later those sims are already out of date.Benjaminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00421785398444449007noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5730822.post-85581579132425780642011-01-25T09:04:05.424-08:002011-01-25T09:04:05.424-08:00Jere--it was 15 below outside my house in Swanvill...Jere--it was 15 below outside my house in Swanville Maine yesterday morning and a bit of a breeze, but ish/rob lives in southern maine, I believe, and that is pretty much a wimpy suburb of Boston with near tropical temperatures compared to the real Maine where we hardy types live.johngoldfinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09322562737172405323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5730822.post-23200109961150333762011-01-25T07:57:23.378-08:002011-01-25T07:57:23.378-08:004.6 games sounds like a large lead for the AL East...4.6 games sounds like a large lead for the AL East. I'm expecting the difference to be 2 or 3 at the most.Pokerwolfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06087637119337918275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5730822.post-78637096305244707152011-01-25T05:19:03.390-08:002011-01-25T05:19:03.390-08:00Maybe the other one did not properly account for t...Maybe the other one did not properly account for the ASF*.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />*: Awesome Showalter Factor!<br /><br />(though you would think the Kirk Effect would be stronger...)allanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04673233312198832937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5730822.post-48224341542568438792011-01-24T23:35:33.160-08:002011-01-24T23:35:33.160-08:00The O's finished 66-96 last season so even if ...The O's finished 66-96 last season so even if they played the Sox and Rangers evenly they made up for it by losing a heck of a lot to every other team. 7% still seems high to me. I went back and looked at the earlier projection and the O's had a 4.7% chance before. I'm not sure what happened to raise their chances by 3%, especially when you consider that two other teams in their division improved themselves since then.mattymattyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08291132296368578632noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5730822.post-32809578380965151912011-01-24T20:14:07.497-08:002011-01-24T20:14:07.497-08:00Considering the O's beat the Red Sox 50% of th...Considering the O's beat the Red Sox 50% of the time and the AL champion Rangers 60% of the time in 2010, I think 7% seems plausible. I'd probably bet on the other 93& happening though.<br /><br />Meanwhile, has anyone heard from ish/rob? I heard it's like 20 below in Maine!Jerehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13448619048422750447noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5730822.post-55014333805638815772011-01-24T16:07:32.045-08:002011-01-24T16:07:32.045-08:00Assuming he ran the same amount of sims, 10,000 se...Assuming he ran the same amount of sims, 10,000 seasons is <i>a lot</i> of time/chances.allanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04673233312198832937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5730822.post-57893133919454660302011-01-24T15:15:01.813-08:002011-01-24T15:15:01.813-08:00Maybe the most surprising aspect of those simulati...Maybe the most surprising aspect of those simulations is the Orioles making the playoffs just over 7% of the time. How that team has the pitching to overcome three of the Sox, Yankees, Rays and Jays I don't understand.mattymattyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08291132296368578632noreply@blogger.com