G86: Royals at Red Sox, 7 PM

Brian Bannister (3.87, 111 ERA+) / Jon Lester (4.16, 112 ERA+)

Current Royals roster against Lester: 5-for-50 (.100/.179/.120)

Current Red Sox roster against Bannister: .396/.423/.625 for a 1.048 OPS. Drew is 4-for-9 with a double and a dong. And OMG -- Julio Lugo is 3-for-4!

NYY/LAA at 10 PM: Chamberlain/Saunders

Papelbon Through 38 Games - 2008/2009

Jonathan Papelbon's first 38 appearances in 2008 and 2009, respectively:

DATE    IP    H  BB   K   BF  PIT P/INN
0706   37.2  28   7  48  148  576  15.3
0708   38.0  34  18  40  167  688  18.1

        AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   WPA   aLI
2008   .203  .241  .312  .553  0.51  1.60
2009   .234  .325  .352  .677  2.58  2.15

(WPA: Win Probability Added and aLI: Average Leverage Index)

Papelbon is pitching in (on average) more high-pressure situations than he was through his first 38 games last year -- and, therefore, has had a greater contribution to Red Sox victories.

While his strikeout rate has remained the same (down from 10.0 to 9.5), his hit rate is up slightly (8.1 from 7.5) and his walk rate has skyrocketed (from 1.0 to 4.3).

Papelbon has altered his motion this year to use his legs more and put less of a strain on his shoulder. On June 26, he said his arm is "feeling better than any year I've had" -- and that was due to the way Francona was using him.

Through 38 appearances in 2008, Papelbon had six games of more than one inning. However, three of those came in the first 12 games of the season -- on six, three and one days rest. (The other three were all on one day of rest).

Thus far in 2009, he has made only two appearances of more than one inning: April 11 on three days rest and May 4 on four days rest.

Francona suggested that perhaps expecting Papelbon to duplicate his 2008 performance is too much to expect:

There's been a few more walks than we've seen in the past, but I think it's more realistic, almost, what he's doing this year. What did he have last year - four walks, for a while? That's unheard of. ... There have been some instances where he's pitched himself into binds, but then he still has the ability to reach back.

Bot:

I don't think I have to hit a panic button [regarding the increased number of pitches], but it concerns me to the point where I have to pay more attention to my delivery. ... I look at it as: Did I get the job done or not. That's basically what it all boils down to for me. To me, the efficiency, the pitches per inning, kind of takes a back seat to: Did I get the job done?

It seems logical for the team to sacrifice some day-to-day excellence in the hopes of protecting Papelbon's arm/shoulder for the long-term, but if the drop in effectiveness means he has to throw more pitches to more batters, are those long-term benefits being undercut?

***

John Smoltz:

I love when people - and I've already heard some of it - say, "Ummmmm, I don't know. I don't think he can do it" ... I'm amused by it, because it happens all the time. I can tell you thousands of cases where I've started off a little slow and people have said, "He's getting older," and at the end of the year they're saying, "Well, he did it again." This is no different.

If you're going to be a major league pitcher, you have to have a little bit of that chip on your shoulder. At the same time, there are about 10 variables that are brand new to me, including the catcher and including the league. It's going to take some time. ... This may not make sense now, but I can see down the road, if the opportunity for some pretty big games exists, what I'm going to be able to do.

Naturally, there will come a time when an athlete cannot keep doing it again, but I don't think we have any idea right now if Smoltz is at that point.

Smoltz says he has been working on a new changeup:

The game's going to dictate when I use it. And I haven't had the feel I want with it yet. But it will happen. It's my fifth pitch, and I'm certainly not going to use my fifth pitch in too many situations. The bullpen is a nice place to work on stuff, but when you take it out to the mound in a game, that's something entirely different.

Mike Lowell's workout on Thursday included "soft tossing, tee work and taking ground balls at third". He will work out today and Saturday and the team will re-evaluate him on Sunday. He hopes to be activated a week from today.

I'm really happy. The [medical staff] told me they'd be shocked if I didn't feel like everything was in sync by the end of the week. ... They assured me it was going to get better each day, and it has.

A Twitter post from Peter Gammons indicated that Dustin Pedroia may miss the All-Star Game to be with his wife in the hospital. Francona: "I'm not sure how to answer that. I guess there's always a chance that he couldn't play because you don't know what's going to happen. But the plan is for him to play."

Julio Lugo was back with the club last night after missing one game because of what Terry Francona called a "pretty serious family issue". ... Rocco Baldelli has been working out at first base, though he has never played the position in a major league game. ... Daniel Bard's last four outings: 5.1 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, 10 strikeouts.

Report: Sox Sign Cuban SS Jose Iglesias

El Nuevo Herald reports that the Red Sox have signed 19-year-old Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias to a $8.2 million contract for four seasons.

Iglesias defected last July in Canada during the World Junior Championships.

Last Friday, SI reported:

Scouts who have seen Iglesias liken him to Ozzie Smith defensively.

"His hands and arm are deluxe," one American League executive said. "The question is how much he'll hit."

Baseball Prospectus, June 4, 2009:

Iglesias has [drawn] attention for his flashy glovework at shortstop, with one scout grading his fielding as an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. His arm is enough to stick at shortstop, but his range is somewhat limited by his fringe-average speed. Iglesias makes the most of his ability, with instincts that enhance his tools and excellent makeup. He bats from the right side and while his overall offensive package leaves a bit to be desired, most scouts agree Iglesias will hit enough to allow him to profile as a big league regular. He has decent pop in his 5'10 frame, at a maxed-out 180 lbs., though he can get pull-happy at times. An international scouting director called Iglesias' total package, "Ryan Theriot with better hands." Iglesias is a defensive-oriented overachiever and executives say he would be more of a 2nd-3rd rounder if eligible for the recent draft.

G85: Royals 8, Red Sox 6

Royals  - 000 304 010 - 8 13  1
Red Sox - 301 010 010 - 6 10  1

David Ortiz hit his 300th career home run in the first inning, but Manny Delcarmen and Justin Masterson could not hold a 5-3 lead in the sixth.

Boston had a golden scoring opportunity in the eighth. They trailed 8-5, but had the bases loaded with one out. Down 0-2, Mark Kotsay fouled off five pitches from Juan Cruz before lofting a sacrifice fly to center field. With Sox on first and third and two outs, Joakim Soria came out of the pen and quickly struck out Nick Green (who had singled and doubled earlier) on a filthy 12-6 curveball inside.

Dustin Pedroia singled, doubled and homered -- his AL-leading 14th three-hit game of the season; he also scored two runs. Kevin Youkilis singled and doubled and scored twice. Daniel Bard finished the eighth and pitched the ninth, striking out three of the four batters he faced.

The Yankees beat the Twins 6-4 during the day, so Boston and New York are tied yet again -- at 51-34 -- atop the AL East. The MFY head to Anaheim for the weekend.

***

Luke Hochevar (5.08, 85 ERA+) / Brad Penny (4.67, 100 ERA+)

Since May 3, Penny has been remarkably consistent -- and quite productive for a 5th starter.

A 3.68 ERA in 12 starts. At least six innings pitched in eight of those 12 starts. He's allowed two runs or fewer in half of the starts -- and three runs or fewer in 10 of the 12 starts. He is allowing a lot of baserunners, however: 97 hits + walks in 71 innings.

Zack Greinke (2.12, 203 ERA+) pitched last night, so the Red Sox will not see him during this four-game series. Boston plays in Kansas City September 21-24.

The Yankees (1 GB) play this afternoon in Minnesota (Aceves/Liriano).

***

Julio Lugo left the team yesterday because of a family matter. There was no word on when he would return.

David Ortiz's home run last night was #299 of his career. He has 773 RBI with Boston, tied with Rico Petrocelli for 8th on the Red Sox All-Time List.

Jed Lowrie was activated and optioned to Lowell (A). He went 2-for-3 last night with two doubles, two walks, two runs and an RBI. The earliest the Red Sox could bring Lowrie back to Boston is July 18 -- the second game after the All-Star break.

Daisuke Matsuzaka is in Fort Myers doing spring training drills, though it's in the heat of July now and not the relative cool of February/March. Francona:

[I]f you go down to Fort Myers in the middle of July at 7:30 in the morning, and the first day you run the shuttle and the second day you run the mile-and-a-half, he did a good job.

Steve Buckley says Wakefield should start the All-Star Game. Eric Wilbur says (and I agree) that's coo coo bananas.

G84: Red Sox 5, Athletics 4

Athletics - 010 000 201 - 4 13  0
Red Sox   - 000 004 10x - 5  7  1

It took awhile, but the Red Sox finally stole Cahill's lunch money and gave Wakefield (6-10-3-1-8, 100) his 175th career Boston win. Only one of the three runs was earned and the eight punchouts was a season-high.

Wakefield trailed 1-0 because of three Oakland hits to start the second inning. He allowed a bunch of hits in his outing, but his knuckleball was also moving like I've rarely seen it move before. It darted in towards hitters' heads, it suddenly swerved sideways (both left and right), it dropped straight down. NESN had a great shot of Orlando Cabrera shaking his head in disbelief in the dugout, demonstrating for a coach how Wake's pitches were defying the laws of physics.

J.D. Drew tied the game at 1-1 with a home run to begin the sixth. Dustin Pedroia singled and Kevin Youkilis walked. It was clear that Cahill -- at 92 pitches -- was cooked, but Oakland manager Bob Geren stayed with him. Big mistake. David Ortiz crushed a 2-1 pitch to deep right field for a three-run dong -- and a 4-1 lead. Boston got an insurance run in the seventh when Drew walked, Pedroia doubled and Ortiz had an RBI groundout. Tiz ended the night with four RBI.

Bot began the ninth by walking Adam Kennedy and surrendering a single to Orlando Cabrera. Scott Hairston's fly ball to left-center -- which both Don Orsillo and Dennis Eckerlsey thought was leaving the park -- was pushed back by the wind and was only a sac fly to Jacoby Ellsbury on the track. Papelbon fanned Matt Holliday for the second out, but Kurt Suzuki singled to move the tying run to second. Bot struck out Jack Cust to end the game.

FY went 3-for-4 with two doubles, Yook and Bay each walked twice, and Ellsbury and Mark Kotsay each singled and stole a base.

***

Trevor Cahill (4.55, 90 ERA+) / Tim Wakefield (4.30, 108 ERA+)

We face yet another rookie tonight.

Cahill has made 17 starts: 93 innings, 96 hits, 38 walks, 45 strikeouts. Inflated WHIP, poor K/BB ratio, opponents line of .267/.338/.493, and left-handed hitters slap him around to the tune of a .997 OPS.

BP 2009 compares him to Brett Anderson:

Although Cahill is right-handed, like Anderson he's not overpowering, but is hardly a soft-tosser, effectively mixing a low-90s sinker, outstanding curveball, and solid change, with good command and control of all three.

In 11 starts from May 2 to June 22, Cahill posted a 3.15 ERA, with opponents hitting .248/.296/.432. In each of his last two starts, however, he has lasted only 3.2 innings.

Tidbits from MLB's John Barone:

Boston has reached the 50-win mark before the All-Star break in four straight seasons. ... Pitchers Josh Beckett and Jon Lester are the first pair of Sox hurlers to rack up at least 100 strikeouts before the break since Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling in 2004.

Hoo-Kay: With his home run, double and two steals, Jason Bay became the first Red Sox left fielder with two extra-base hits and two stolen bases in the same game since Tommy Harper (September 19, 1973, against the Yankees).

Mark Kotsay's right calf is "feeling better". ... Adam Kilgore notes that John Smoltz's BABIP in his three starts is a whopping .370. ... Kevin Youkilis is in a 2-for-26 slump and is hitting only .207 since June 1.

What We Are

Are we an online community of Red Sox fans?

No!

We are a little sewing circle!

Perspective

L W W L W

You can almost hear the inner voice of a typical Red Sox fan as those five games progress:

Damn, a loss right out of the gate ... Alright, a nice comeback to even things out, let's look forward ... Hey! Two in a row, now we're talking, look out AL! ... Shit, back to .500, wtf is Tito doing? ... Okay, we salvaged that rubber game, but these guys better get their asses in gear -- (and in this pattern, there will be a loss -- and subsequent moaning and groaning -- the next night)

But if the Red Sox repeated this pattern for an entire year, they would almost always win the AL East. Winning 3 out of every 5 games is a .600 winning percentage -- good for 97 wins over the course of a season.

Right now, Boston is 50-33, a .602 winning percentage.

A team is never as good as they seem when they are on a 10-2 run and they are never as bad as they appear during a 7-game losing streak. It may be a cliche, but it's absolutely true.

While I understand some complaining after a loss, and I feel some frustration when a good player is in a slump, I also know, from more than three decades of watching baseball, that slumps end and even the best team in baseball will lose 2 games for every 3 they win.

G83: Red Sox 5, Athletics 2

Athletics - 100 010 000 - 2  7  0
Red Sox   - 022 001 00x - 5  9  1

***

Dana Eveland (7.40, 55 ERA+) / Josh Beckett (3.67, 126 ERA+)

Eveland faced the Red Sox back on April 14 in Oakland. 4.2-8-5-3-2, 108. The A's won 6-5 in 12 innings. (That was a horrible night; Dice went one inning and Lopez blew the game in the 12th.)

Eveland has not started a game since May 1 (log). His last major league appearance was in relief on May 3, when he faced four batters and got none of them out. Two days later, he was optioned to Sacramento (AAA), where he posted a 3.49 ERA in 12 starts. He threw 89 pitches on Friday (5-5-1-5-4) and will be working on three days rest.

Beckett, who has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last nine starts, has not faced the A's this season.

Nomar Returns

Some Nomar quotes:

When I got traded I was on the road and never got to say thank you. Hopefully, the way I thanked them throughout all those years when I was here was just going out there and playing hard and giving it everything I've got.

My appreciation for this place has never stopped. On the field, I gave it everything I had. That's one thing I know the fans here have always appreciated. My mentality every time I put on that uniform was to win for this wonderful city.

I love them. I don't how else to put it to the fans that I love them, and the way they treated me the whole time I was here. I can't tell them how much that meant to me.

Boston fans were everywhere. I can't say how many times I heard, "Thank you. Thank you for all you did." Even today I was walking down Newbury Street, a guy came up to me and shook my hand and looked me in the eye and said "Thank you for all you did." And I just looked at him and said, "No ... Thank you."

I can't believe the wonderful experiences that I've had here and it's all because of them.

I was getting choked up out there. I kept thinking "I gotta go hit? You kidding me?" There's no script for it. It was so emotional for me, their way of thanking me and me thanking them. I always believed it was a two-way street. This will never leave me.

I always had a dream I was going to start my career in a Boston uniform and end my career in a Boston uniform. I still have the dream. The only difference from the original dream is that I wasn't supposed to put another uniform on. But that dream is still there.

Sox & Dawgs has clips from both the press conference and the second inning ovation.

***

On the whole, Smoltz thought he did well:

I went back and watched the whole game again and I'm still shaking my head on some of the hits and some of the plays. Some of the pitches that I didn't think should have gotten hit, and they found holes. ... What I hate more than anything is two-out runs. But I felt in control. I threw the ball really well. I didn't have much to show for it tonight, but as mad as I get, I have to make sure to realize I'm making a lot of progress even though the results don't look like that.

I'm not so sure. Thirteen baserunners in six innings is not good, especially against a shitty hitting team like the A's. Smoltz's fastball was only about 92 and he missed location with his breaking stuff.

I've given up all two-out runs except one or two, and that has to change. I'm going to look and see if there are any trends. I don't think I have to be perfect. I haven't pitched away from my fastball or contact. I'm almost there.

SoSHer Jnai has some fx data here and here.

Aaron Bates will probably stay with the team until the break. Mike Lowell is due back when play resumes on Friday, July 17 in Toronto.