W-L TEAM ERAThere has almost always been a decent amount of optimism when it comes to the predictions. I note, however, that the Red Sox have not won 90+ games since 2021 (when they went 92-70 and lost the ALCS (2-4) to Houston), having secured 78, 78, 81, and 89 victories in the subsequent seasons.
Paul H. 95-67 3.57
Benjamin B. 95-67 3.66
Rich G. 93-69 3.57
Jacob L. 92-70 3.43
Brett H. 92-70 3.45
Allan W. 92-70 3.75
Jeff M. 91-71 3.70
Eddie N. 90-72 3.69
Dave I. 90-72 3.90
Warren S. 90-72 4.50
Michael G. 87-75 3.62
The ERA guesses are all pretty similar, within 45 points of each other (eight of the 11 entries are within 27 points (3.43-3.70). I was curious how Boston had ranked ERA-wise since the pandemic season. Huge improvement since 2023.
Red Sox ERA, 2021-25
ERA AL MLB
2021 4.26 7 15
2022 4.53 14 25
2023 4.52 11 21
2024 4.04 9 17
2025 3.70 2* 4*
*: tied
4 comments:
So, with two weeks and 12 games left in the season, the Red Sox are 82-68. Best potential win total would be 94. With 90% confidence, they should finish between 86 and 91 wins per BB-Ref. At present, nine of the 11 entries have win totals that are within the realm of possibility, though the only win total less than 90 is 87, which would have the Sox finishing 5-7.
For what it's worth, the current team ERA is 3.59, which is tied with the Braves for third best in baseball behind the MFY (3.24) and the Brewers (3.57).
One week to go, six to play, and the Red Sox have clinched a wild card spot. For the W-L contest, they would either have to run the table (6-0) or split the final three (3-3) at home versus the Guardians (currently battling the White Sox for first place in the AL Central) and the Cubs (currently in the first WC spot in the NL with their magic number at two).
We have a winner! Congratulations to Michael G. Also, the final team ERA is 3.54 according to BB-Ref. On to postseason baseball!
Michael G. is this year's winner!!
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