Alex Rodriguez's New Deal. Despite the size of Rodriguez's contract, at no time will the Yankees pay him more than they pay Derek Jeter.

       Old Deal    Tex    NYY

Signing Bonus      $10

Assignment Bonus   $36

2001   $21 ($5)    $16

2002   $21 ($4)    $17

2003   $21 ($3)    $18

2004   $21 ($3)    $ 3   $15 ($1)

2005   $21 ($3)    $ 6   $15 ($1)

2006   $21 ($3)    $ 6   $15 ($1)

2007   $21 ($3)    $ 7   $16 ($1)

2008   $21 ($3)    $ 8   $16

2009   $21 ($3)    $ 7   $17

2010   $21 ($3)    $ 6   $18

      $252 ($36)   $140  $112 ($4)

(Deferred $ in paraenthesis)

Assignment Bonus: The $36 million in deferred money from the original contract is converted to an assignment bonus, guaranteeing the money against work stoppages. The interest rate on the deferred money will be lowered from the original 3% to 1.75% starting with the date of the trade, and the money will be paid each June 15 from 2016-25 instead of the original schedule of 2011-20.

Assignment Bonus will be paid:
2016: $5 million plus accrued interest
2017: $4 million plus accrued interest
2018: $3 million plus accrued interest
2019: $3 million plus accrued interest
2020: $4 million plus accrued interest
2021: $4 million plus accrued interest
2022: $4 million plus accrued interest
2023: $3 million plus accrued interest
2024: $3 million plus accrued interest
2025: $3 million plus accrued interest

New Deferred Money: The Yankees will defer $1 million annually from 2004-07 without interest, to be paid on January 15, 2011.

Holdover Provisions Opt Out: Player may terminate contract after 2007, 2008 or 2009 seasons. Escalator Team must increase salaries for 2009 and 2010 by the higher of $5 million or $1 million greater than the average annual value of the non-pitcher with highest annual average value.

No Trade Clause: Player may not be traded without his permission.

Award Bonuses:
MVP: $500,000
2nd MVP: $1 million
3rd or more MVP: $1.5 million
MVP voting 2nd-5th: $200,000
MVP voting 6th-10th: $100,000
All-Star selection/election: $100,000
Most All-Star votes in League: $100,000
Baseball America/Sporting News/UPI/AP/USAToday All-Star Team: $100,000
World Series MVP: $200,000
LCS MVP: $150,000
LDS MVP: $150,000
Gold Glove: $100,000
Silver Slugger: $100,000

Truck Day! "The truck will arrive late Wednesday night in Fort Myers and be unloaded Thursday morning."

Well, Here We Go. Murray Chass of the New York Times sets the tone for the framing of the A-Rod Trade with some puke-worthy prose masquerading as "analysis" (and on the front page of the paper, no less):

"In the end, the Yankees' trade for Alex Rodriguez is just another instance in which the Yankees beat the Red Sox. They beat them by finishing first in their division last season; they beat them in the postseason and went to the World Series; and now, in the game of winter hardball, it's Yankees 1, Red Sox 0. The funny thing about this latest competition is that the Yankees were not even competing with the Red Sox for Rodriguez, a star shortstop and the American League's most valuable player last season. When the Red Sox were trying to get him in a trade from the Texas Rangers this winter, they were all alone. ... They had an exclusive period to meet and court Rodriguez, courtesy of an overly sympathetic baseball commissioner, Bud Selig, and they still couldn't win."

This will be -- or already is -- the party line: The Cursed Red Sox and the Mighty Yankees were both bidding for Alex Rodriguez and, as they always do, the Mighty Yankees came out on top. And even though Chass admits this is/was not the case, he still scores it Yankees 1, Red Sox 0 -- though since the Yankees made a play for Curt Schilling before Boston swooped in, at the very least it's 1-1. And with Babe Ruth's name littering ESPN's coverage, the media has fallen in line. The headlines alone give you the flavor (though there are links if you want to wallow):

Summer or Winter, the Yankees Show the Red Sox How to Win (New York Times)
Time to Put Away the Sox (Washington Post)
Curse of the Georgino (Philadelphia Daily News) [SoSH mentioned]
Ho-hum, Steinbrenner Trumps the Red Sox Again (Toronto Globe and Mail)
Bosox in Panic Mode (Bergen Record)
This Rivalry Always Has the Same Ending (Newark Star-Ledger)
Hey, Red Sox Fans, Please Come Back in Off the Ledge (Houston Chronicle)
A-Rod Trade May Haunt Red Sox (Contra Costa Times)
A-Rod's Ruthian Switch (San Francisco Chronicle)

The Boston Herald covers all the bases:
Same old tune written for second fiddle (Michael Gee)
Good news Sox fans: AL East is not lost yet (Steve Buckley)
Sox have only themselves to blame (Gerry Callahan)
NY must still win on field (Tony Massarotti)

Speaking of the Herald, here's today's Gratutious Manny Slam: Tony Massarotti with "Manny Magoo" ... Terry Francona awaits The Truck. ... "Francona Facing Fireworks at Frantic Fenway" ... Derek Lowe comments on A-Rod. ... "Rodriguez Trade Could Kill Sox-Yanks Rivalry" ... Chris Havel, Green Bay Press Gazette: "The New York Yankees are to baseball what dysentery is to the flu. They aren't the sickness so much as an irritating symptom of what ails America's pastime."

And some snips (taking me well into Gleeman-length today!):

Michael Holley: "This is usually the point in the story when someone who is not affiliated with the New York media complains about the evil Yankees and their payroll. That won't happen in this space. The Yankee payroll is not the focus of their matchup with the Sox; the starting pitching is. ... [In 2001, 2002 and 2003] the Yankees lost to teams that had better pitching. As loaded as their lineup is now, they are going to see -- for the first time -- better pitching from a team in their own division. Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, and Derek Lowe are better than any three starters the Yankees have, and they're better in the regular season and postseason. ... New York has someone Boston wanted, but this time the theme is not a tragic one. Bizarre? No doubt. A dose of humiliation after a whole lot of flirting? Uh, yeah. Tragic? Nah. The Sox have some people who can play a little bit, too."

Art Martone: "The Red Sox may have believed they were only potential landing place for A-Rod, and, logically, you can see why they'd think that. The Yankees had Derek Jeter at shortstop and a payroll approaching $180 million. ... You have to think the Rangers agreed, judging by their very public attempts to mend fences with both Rodriguez and their fan base ... up to and including the charade of naming A-Rod captain. But the Rangers weren't looking to trade Alex Rodriguez to Boston. They were looking to trade Alex Rodriguez, period. ... You want to blame the Red Sox for something? Blame them for not understanding that once they didn't acquire Alex Rodriguez, it meant someone else could. Or, more accurately, for taking the gamble that no one else would. ... [B]eating the Yankees just got harder. The decisions the Sox have to make after the 2004 season just got tougher. And the curse chorus -- which would have been silenced forever had Grady Little been alive and well during the bottom of the eighth inning on Oct. 16 -- just got louder."

Newsday: "Multiple baseball sources said the Red Sox reached out to both the Texas Rangers and Rodriguez Saturday. In these discussions, the Red Sox offered to take Rodriguez and his bulky contract "as is" - a stunning reversal from their previous position. According to a source, a mutual friend of both Rodriguez and the Red Sox approached the All-Star on Boston's behalf. ... Rodriguez enthusiastically told the go-between, 'tell [Red Sox president] Larry Lucchino to - off!' Lucchino did not return a phone call for comment yesterday. Through a Red Sox spokesman, general manager Theo Epstein denied the Red Sox made an 11th hour push for Rodriguez. However, he conceded that there might have been communication between the mutual friend and Rodriguez. ... [Rangers general manager John] Hart denied speaking with the Red Sox ..."

Move Over, Derek. So says the front page of today's New York Daily News. The Daily News and the Post are divided over which player should be the Yankees shortstop -- right now, Rodriguez has the edge (1 - 2 - 3 to 1). ... The Toronto Sun: "Rodriguez at third? Give it 20 games"; another columnist says: "By the Fourth of July it'll be A-Rod SS, Jeter 3B."

My partner Laura - who is both a diehard Yankees fan and an Alex fan - says: "Whatever the relative merits of Jeter/Alex/3B/SS may be, at the home opener on April 8, Yankee fans will see their man Derek Jeter - who they revere - in his rightful spot at SS. Anything else would be perceived as a massive, collosal dis and Torre will not do that. How it will play out in the long run, that's another story. But starting the season with Jeter at SS and Alex at 3B is not going to cost them anything significant." ... While it's true that starting the season with Jeter at shortstop wouldn't hurt that much, wouldn't it be a better idea to make the transition before the real games begin? Of course, doing that and then moving Jeter back for the home opener (the 7th game of the season) would be weird. And Torre does have a history of veteran loyalty. ... My take? Both players will practice at third base in spring training and at some point before New York heads to Tokyo to start the season, it will be decided that Jeter moves to third.

Jim Baker, ESPN Insider: "There is one word for the notion that Derek Jeter would be allowed to stay at shortstop while Alex Rodriguez would move to third to accommodate him: silly. Tradition, pride, primacy -- these are all nice words but there are baseball games on the line here. Jeter has gotten so bad at shortstop that not even the staunchest Yankee fan even bothers to defend him anymore." [Well, that's debateable, but anyway ...]

Range Factor among qualifying AL shortstops
2003: Rodriguez -- 5th (4.54); Jeter -- 10th/last (3.75)
2002: Rodriguez -- 4th (4.73); Jeter -- 12th/last (3.81)
2001: Rodriguez -- 2nd (4.72); Jeter -- 10th/last (3.82)

Zone Rating* among qualifying AL shortstops
2003: Rodriguez -- 6th (.859); Jeter -- 10th/last (.791)
2002: Rodriguez -- 1st (.919); Jeter -- 12th/last (.803)
2001: Rodriguez -- 4th (.853); Jeter -- 10th/last (.789)
* ZR: The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc.

Baker: "A-Rod should not be displaced defensively by anybody except an Ozzie Smith-caliber shortstop. Just how bad is Jeter at this point? Consider this: defensive Win Shares per 1,000 innings. Most shortstops are over 4.00 in this category. All but four -- including the scrubs, fill-ins, part-timers and cup of coffee drinkers -- were over 3.00. Derek Jeter was at 1.31. Fellow Yankees Eric Almonte and Enrique Wilson were also in the ones while Damian Jackson of the Red Sox was at 2.23. ... Defensive stats are a lot more murky than their offensive counterparts, but the discrepancies between A-Rod and Jeter are so vast that they transcend any murkiness caused by the shortcomings of the tools."

Obit. Lawrence S. Ritter, who wrote many baseball books, including "The Glory of Their Times," died Sunday at his Manhattan apartment. He was 81. "The Glory of Their Times" is a collection of 22 oral histories from deadball-era stars like Ty Cobb, John McGraw, Honus Wagner, Rube Marquard, and Smoky Joe Wood. It was one of the first baseball books I ever read. It was published in 1966 and is rightly regarded as perhaps the best baseball book of all-time (and damn good American history as well). A CD of the interviews (including many not in the book) was released a few years ago. I liked reading that Ritter divided his royalties from the book among the players and their families.

Fun With Anagrams. The bloggers and readers of Corrente offer a long list of anagrams for the Republicans 2004 campaign slogan -- "Steady Leadership in a Time of Change." Here are my top 10:

I'm a hypertense, death-dealing fiasco.
Slimy, cheapish deafening toadeater.
The famed ace is lying, Oedipean trash.
Fleeting hypocrite ass-head idea man.
Honestly! I am a disheartened pig-face.
He is the friendly scapegoat idea man.
Megadeath and hyperfine socialites.
Ape Shit! tone-deaf, hymenial disgrace.
Inane freedoms agitated cheapishly.
Dad cheat? Fly airship? Gee! I am not seen.

Calpundit: "Former Lt. Colonel Bill Burkett says that members of George Bush's staff, along with senior officers at Texas National Guard Headquarters, purged Bush's National Guard files of potentially embarrassing material back in 1997. Is his story true?" With links to transcripts of interviews he's done with the people involved and the journalists who have written about it over the past few years. ... Harry Jaffe of The Washingtonian follows up on the tense exchange between Helen Thomas and Scott McClellan last Friday over whether Bush had been compelled to perform community service in the early 1970s.

Trade Not Final Yet. The MLB Players Association gave its approval to the Rodriguez-to-Yankees deal, but the trade will not be finalized until Monday, at the earliest. According to a Rangers statement: "The Commissoner's Office has notified the Texas Rangers that there will be no decision made by Commissioner Bud Selig today on the proposed trade with the New York Yankees."

According to the terms announced by ESPN, Texas will pay an additional $67 million of Rodriguez's contract. Factoring in what Texas has already paid for the 2001-03 seasons, when all is said and done, Tom Hicks will have paid Alex Rodriguez $140 million for 3 years of work -- a staggering $46.7 million per season. By contrast, the Yankees will pay Rodriguez an average of $16 million for seven years. ... Step aside Bud, it looks like baseball's got a new Supreme Moron. ... Ben Affleck: "George Steinbrenner is the center of evil in the universe."

I Am Ready. There is no way to spin Alex Rodriguez playing for the 2004 New York Yankees as a good thing for the Nation, but after a night's sleep (and even as the deal is being officially announced), I can state that I am not worried. The Yankees are a better team with A-Rod instead of Soriano; only a fool would claim otherwise. His addition does not make the Red Sox worse, although it does lessen whatever puny margin for error existed in the East. ... The existence of the wild card (boo!) certainly removes some of the impact of this deal. Imagine the fervor if the AL East was all-or-nothing.

Let's not forget that Theo & the Trio have put together an amazing team, one that filled the various holes from 2003 (another ace starter, an established closer, a glove at 2B, a competent manager and a stronger bench). Toss in a full season of Scott Williamson in the pen, Byung-Hyun Kim in the rotation and Ortizzle as DH and this is easily the best Red Sox team I've seen in my almost 30 years as a fan.

If Derek Jeter is playing shortstop on Opening Day, I'll be totally shocked. Obviously, there is no way Torre will make any sort of announcement before camp is well underway, but the switch is coming. Why would any team trade for the premier shortstop (and a Gold Glover) and play him out of position in deference to perhaps the least-mobile starting shortstop in the game? ... New York will apparently have no qualms about moving Bernie Williams out of center field for Kenny Lofton, so I believe at some point in March, Cap'n Intangibles will "step up" and step aside.

Speaking of which, in today's New York Post, there is a box entitled "Out of Position." It states: "When Alex Rodriguez joins the Yankees, he'll play third base even though he is statistically a better fielding shortstop than Derek Jeter. ... In the past four seasons, Rodriguez has handled 655 more chances and made 21 fewer errors [than Jeter]." And it includes these statistics:

Ultimate Zone Rating Runs, 2000-03
(runs saved or cost compared to others at position, per 162 games)
Rodriguez -- Saved 10
Jeter -- Cost 28

Range Factor, 2000-03
(putouts + assists per 9 innings)
Rodriguez -- 4.69
Jeter -- 3.87

UZR and RF in the Post? And used to show what a below-average shortstop Jeter is? Strange days indeed.

Dateline November 3, 2000. Alex Rodriguez not looking to be a Yankee
Alex Rodriguez wants to beat the New York Yankees, not play for them. The All-Star shortstop is weighing his options as a free agent, but the Yankees aren't one of his choices. "I would like to sign with another team and help dethrone the Yankees — they've won too much already," Rodriguez said Friday. The Yankees have been rumored to be interested in signing Rodriguez and moving him to third base because they already have his buddy, Derek Jeter, at shortstop. Rodriguez isn't interested in that possibility. "I like playing shortstop and I'm young," the 25-year-old said. "I want to play it until I'm 35 and then I'll study the possibility of being moved."

Check out the big "A-Rod to New York" SoSH thread for over 500 responses (including Curt Schilling at 5:39pm Saturday), stats and the gamut of emotional states. [Royal Rooters and Your Turn]

There is no doubt that the Red Sox knew this was a possibility when they closed the door on a possible Rodriguez-to-Boston scenario. I agree with Zupcic Fan, who wrote in the SoSH thread: "It bothers me that we could have had ARod and Magglio Ordenez and chose not to for financial reasons that would have been risky but probably not prohibitive---and as a result allowed this to happen. If the Yankees are your principal opponent, at least part of your thinking has to be to anticipate these kinds of things. I don't know this for sure, but I suspect that the financial value of having ARod on the team in terms of advertising, product sales, etc would have absorbed some of the money the Sox were worried about."

Go here for links to New York papers. ... According to the Times, the Rangers will also give the Yankees about $67 million, reducing Rodriguez's average annual payment from the Yankees to about $16 million from $25.5 million. ... Bob Ryan compares the two teams as of now and rates them: Boston 5, New York 4, Even 3. ... Derek Lowe on Game 7. ... Art Martone on the Red Sox roster. ... Here's another 4:00 am October call-getter: Adrian Wojnarowski.

Let's also take a moment and give thanks that Grady Little (aka Gump, aka That Grinning Jackass, aka Huckleberry Happytalk, aka That *&$%^# Moron) is gone (Game 7 still hurts, but doesn't his reign of error seems like a loooong time ago?) because every game, every inning, will be critical this season. ... Buffalo Head [2/15/04 4:15 am]: "I would hope you'd support who we are, not who we are not. These 25 individuals have made the choice to work, the choice to sacrifice, to put themselves on the line 162 nights for the next six months, to represent you, this fanbase. That kind of committment and effort deserves and demands your respect. This is your team."

I am ready.

Oh Shit. Newsday moved this story at 3:02 pm: "The Yankees and Rangers have an agreement in principle on a monster trade that will send superstar shortstop Alex Rodriguez to New York in exchange for Alfonso Soriano [and a minor-league pitcher]. No announcement is expected today, as a couple very minor technical details are still to be worked out. However, all sides remain confident everything will be finalized within a few days, a source said. ... The impetus for the deal was Rodriguez's surprising willingness to agree to play third base."

Fort Worth Star Telegram: "Alex Rodriguez could be on his way to the New York Yankees as early as today. Major League officials confirmed that the Rangers have been talking with the Yankees about a trade that would send Rodriguez to New York for second baseman Alfonso Soriano and possibly a minor league player. The teams are awaiting approval from the Baseball Players' Association about minor restructuring of Rodriguez's contract. ... The trade talks have been going on for about a week."

Sportsline.com has totally jumped the gun with this headline: "Yankees acquire A-Rod from Texas for Soriano." ... According to x-jack at Sam Horn, Kevin Kiernan (NY Post) and Tom Keegan (ESPN) "suspected that this was a ploy by ARod/Boras/Hicks to get the Red Sox back into the picture. ARod can veto any trade and Kiernan didn't think he wanted to come to NY and share the spotlight with Jeter -- never mind play third base." ... That is looking less likely as the afternoon goes on, however.

Oh and before I forget. Mike Celizic? You are now on the List -- the List to get 4am wakeup calls when Boston takes the World Series this fall.

Beasts of the East. Could a group of Red Sox and Yankees outperfom an All-Star team drawn from the other 28 clubs? Dayn Perry takes a look. ... Transcript of Francona WFAN interview.

George King of the New York Post reports: "Brian Cashman approached the Rangers about a deal that would have brought Alex Rodriguez to the Yankees [and] the Rangers nixed the deal ..." Cashman said he was doing nothing more than floating a "weather balloon," figuring it never hurts to ask.

MLB has a Q&A with Rodriguez (no real mention of the Red Sox though):
Q: Standing just 60 feet from the pitcher doesn't leave you a lot of time to think, what goes through your head when the pitch is coming?
A: Well, I told you that you pray a lot on the baseball field. When you have Randy Johnson ... you wish that you could go straight to church."

Jim Souhan, Star Tribune: "Will steroid use and accusations of such taint the game, and the records set by massive sluggers such as Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire? In a word, no. ... Here's a short list of the problems baseball has survived: Pep pills. Corked bats. Spitballs. Segregation. Desegregation. Cocaine use. Night baseball. Interleague play. The DH. ... Expansion. Contraction. ... [T]he idea that Bonds' records will be tarnished is the product of overactive imaginations. Babe Ruth played in tiny ballparks, and never had to face a black pitcher or have a home run stolen by a black outfielder. Nobody questions his legitimacy."

Toronto manager Carlos Tosca, on his team's lack of an established closer: "I don't want to have a bullpen by committee or a closer by committee, but I wouldn't mind having a situation where we might go with one guy for two innings one night, then go with match-ups the next night." ... You moron, Tosca, that is exactly what a "bullpen by committee" or a "closer by committee" actually is. Go ask your GM about it sometime. Oh, and have fun fighting the Yankees for second place.

Coup Coup Ka Choo. "In the fall, I sat with Jim March, an anti-Diebold tech expert in Sacramento, Calif., while he showed me on his home PC how to steal an election. ... March helped me open a file containing actual results from a March 2002 primary election held in San Luis Obispo County, Calif. -- a file that March says would be accessible to anyone who worked in the county elections office on Election Day. Following March's direction, I changed the vote count with a few clicks. Then, he explained how to alter the "audit log," erasing all evidence that we'd tampered with the results. I saved the file. If it had been a real election, I would have been carrying out an electronic coup. It was a chilling realization." [Farhad Manjoo, "Will the Election Be Hacked?"]

Miami Herald: "The [Florida] Department of State has notified elections supervisors that touchscreen ballots don't have to be included during manual recounts because there is no question about how voters intended to vote."

WaPo: "Files released by the White House last night from President Bush's Vietnam War-era service in the National Guard ... provide no evidence that he did any military service in Alabama. ... And the records show officials from Bush's home base in Texas declining to provide details of his activities between May 1972 to April 1973, even though such documentation was requested by National Guard headquarters." ... It's getting tough to keep the lies straight. ... Anyone else curious about Bush's community service (done in "inner-city" Houston right after working on the campaign of a segregationist)?

I'm In The Index. Eric Alterman, author of the excellent "What Liberal Media?," has a new book out: "The Book on Bush," written with former New York City public advocate Mark Green. On page 226, Alterman/Green write: "As Allan Wood and Paul Thompson describe on their extremely informative (and well-documented) Web site "An Interesting Day," many questions persist about George W. Bush's behavior on September 11, 2001." The next three pages outline some of the information from the article. Alterman also writes the blog "Altercation" for MSNBC. ... This testy exchange between WH press secretary Scott McClellan and the press is highly entertaining. ... A kickass Q&A with Paul Waldman.

Francona Speaks. SoSHer Stu Nahan has some notes on Terry Francona's interview on WFAN yesterday. Among them: On On Foulke's usage: The bullpen is deep and it can help "shorten the game". Foulke can/will be used for more than 1 inning. ... On ownership: Theo and [Bill] James have the "ability to make me think about the game" and I "appreciate that". "We're in this together" and "we want to work together". ... On Boston: "I'm excited" and I know that there will be "37,000 assistant managers every night". Loves the passion of Boston and "understands people second guessing every move". When he makes moves, he has to "have a reason for doing it". If he doesn't, then he expects/deserves to get slammed.

Jackie MacMullan has a lengthy feature about Francona and how he "cheated death four times during a medical odyssey that included multiple knee surgeries, blood clots, staph infections, massive internal bleeding, and a near amputation of his leg. ... 'I'm probably lucky to be alive,' said Francona, in his first extensive comments regarding his ordeal. 'And I know I'm lucky to have all my limbs.'"

Derek Lowe talks to Gordon Edes in Fort Myers about his future with the Red Sox. Lowe believes that with the signing of Curt Schilling, either he or Pedro Martinez isn't coming back in 2005. He also reports that will be much better prepared this spring than in 2003. Last spring, Lowe missed a month of conditioning just before spring training because of his skin cancer surgery. "Missing that whole month last year just killed me. I'm not using it as an excuse, but mentally I knew I wasn't ready, and I tried to catch up way too fast. ... My mechanics, everything was a disaster." Compared to 2002, Lowe gave up more walks (72 to 48), hits (216 to 166), and home runs (17 to 12), and his ERA ballooned from 2.58 to 4.47. His record was 17-7 because he received the best run support in the AL. ... This year, Lowe has added 15 pounds (up to 240) and been working out regularly and has already put in two months of long-tossing and six bullpen sessions.

Hitting coach Ron Jackson on the black players that inspired him (Satchel Paige, Josh Gibson, Jackie Robinson, Larry Doby, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Frank Robinson). ... John Burkett turned down the Yankees' NRI offer and has officially retired. ... Bartow Littell, 97, recalls fishing with Babe Ruth in the early 1920s in Florida.

Dentist Likes Russert's Toothless Style. The Daily Howler comments on the Russert/Bush love-in last Sunday: "Bush boasted about his cooperation with the 9/11 commission -— a commission which has routinely complained about the president's lack of cooperation. But Russert ignored this odd statement too. What would Bush have said if challenged? The public will never find out. ... The bulldog had left his teeth in a jar." Russert was apparently quite pleased with his performance, however. He told the Buffalo News that the day after the interview he went to the dentist and "the dentist, the receptionist and the hygienist started clapping, it was really sweet." ... Check out the many news links at Daniel Froomkin's White House Briefing, including this one from the Memphis Flyer: "Two members of the Air National Guard unit that President George W. Bush allegedly served with as a young Guard flyer in 1972 had been told to expect him and were on the lookout for him. He never showed, however; of that both Bob Mintz and Paul Bishop are certain."

Theo Epstein Talks To Baseball Prospectus. Here is Part I; Part II is part of BP's subscription.

BP: Your father, on the "Cowboy Up" year-end DVD ... said that you are self-described as "risk-averse." What's that mean? It surprises me.

Epstein: Well, risk is a funny thing. We talk about it a lot at the Red Sox. You could say our approach is a bit of a paradox, because at the same time we are risk takers and risk-averse. I think we're risk takers in the sense that we'll try anything within reason, within moral boundaries, to get a competitive advantage. So if someone has an idea--no matter how crazy, no matter how off-the-wall, no matter how illogical it seems--as long as we don't have to expend a tremendous amount of resources to try it, we'll try it. ... Where we're risk-averse is in situations where there are a lot of resources involved. And when I say resources, I really mean a percentage of our payroll. By design, we're risk averse with our payroll. We feel that we have tremendous resources, and the quickest thing that we can do to sacrifice that competitive advantage is to take an ill-advised risk with our payroll and have it backfire on us, eliminating that edge. So we are risk averse, because we want to make every single unit of resource count for us; every single dollar on the payroll really counts for us and translates into wins. So I think it is accurate to say that we're risk-averse and risk takers at the same time."

Some have wondered if Epstein's comment -- "to take an ill-advised risk with our payroll and have it backfire on us" -- has any relevance to a possible contract extension for Pedro Martinez. ... Sarah at RallyCuff notes a Pedro interview (in Santo Domingo's Listín Diario) and attempts a translation. ... Keith Woolner always told people that the Red Sox lost the first game he saw at Fenway. Turns out he was wrong. I, however, can say with certainty that Boston lost the first game I saw at Fenway.

Jim Cassandro at Baseball Primer: "In the following piece I will argue that in baseball these measures [Avg, OBP, SLG, ERA, K:BB, etc.] are inappropriately applied and statistically flawed, and I will introduce rather simple residualized measures that are more valid, flexible, and statistically meaningful alternatives. Residualized measures have already been adopted successfully in other research fields where ratio statistics have been misapplied (e.g., social and behavioral sciences). Perhaps this introduction will help residuals find their place on the landscape of baseball research as well."

A Squadron Of Postal Handlers. Bush left his Texas Air National Guard assignment and moved to Alabama, even though the Air Force had denied his transfer request, adding that Bush was "ineligible" to move to the unit he wanted: a squadron of postal handlers. ... Also, Bush's August 1972 suspension from flight status (triggered by his failure to take a required annual physical) should have prompted an investigation. ... Several members of the Alabama Air National Guard said they don't remember ever seeing Bush at their Montgomery base.

More on the removal of potentially embarrassing details from Bush's military records, including "mentions in the records of arrests." ... Blogger Calpundit spoke to Bill Burkett (transcription here). ... The Baseball Crank says the "monomaniacal" Calpundit has "gone off the rails" on this story and asks 14 Questions. ... Bush said last Sunday he would open his entire military file to the press, but the White House is now backing away from that promise, although it did release some dental records. ... Is Colin Powell starting to crack?

Finally, the 9/11 Commission will ask Bush, Dick Cheney, Bill Clinton and Al Gore to testify in public about possible warnings they might have received from US intelligence sources before the terrorist attacks. Chairman Thomas Kean: "We need them to testify." ... Since Condoleeza Rice was able to dictate the circumstances of her questioning last Saturday -- not under oath and in secret session that will not bemade public -- and Bush told Tim Russert that "I don't testify," I fully expect Kean to backpedal very soon and say there is no need for the current administration to say anything to anyone. (The White House has made no comment about a Bush appearance.)

Everyone Loves A Contest!



Win three* signed copies of my book on the 1918 Red Sox by correctly predicting how many regular season games Boston will win in 2004. In case of a tie, guess Pedro's ERA and (in case of a further tie) Manny's slugging percentage. You have until April 3 to enter. On April 4 (Opening Day), I will post all the entries. ... Send your name and three predictions to: joyofsox@hotmail.com.

* -- For the curious: There were problems printing the original orange cover (which I hated), so it was changed to the red one (which I designed); then last summer, Barnes & Noble chose the book for a big promotional campaign and both the cover and title were revised. The actual content has remained unchanged, except for the correction of two factual errors in the original. (Oh, the books are all the same size!)

A Q&A with Terry Francona.

"MLB.com: Ramiro Mendoza is a guy we've hardly heard anything about all winter. He became a forgotten man last year because of injuries and ineffectiveness. What have you heard about Ramiro this winter and how does he fit in?

"Francona: I've talked to [assistant trainer] Chris Correnti, who has been monitoring Ramiro in Fort Myers, and Chris said he's doing outstanding. ... We'll give him every opportunity to bounce back and hopefully he'll be the pitcher he was. When he's throwing good, he can pitch the ninth one day and the first the next. ...

"MLB.com: You hear a lot about how Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling can rub off on each other and sort of fire each other up. Is that something you just hear about in the media, or do two highly competitive pitchers like that have a way of driving each other?

"Francona: I don't doubt that for one minute. Randy Johnson and Schilling were great for each other. They were trying to one-up the other guy. If that's the case, great. Let them push each other. Derek Lowe can jump right into that mix to and he can push them too. So can Tim Wakefield. ... The best thing about this now is that Derek Lowe pitching third in our rotation means that he'll be getting matched up a lot of times with the other team's third starter. That makes us better right there. ...

"MLB.com: Managing the Red Sox is probably the most scrutinized job in the city of Boston or the entire region of New England. You did manage in a tough market in Philly, but how do you prepare for the non-stop scrutiny that will come in the baseball hotbed that is Boston?

"Francona: I guess the best way I can do that is to prepare to do my job right. If I do that, which I will, I just have to be smart enough to know that this job comes with a ton of scrutiny. I have to do my job, and when I do it, have a reason for it. Explain the reasoning. ... Understand that people are passionate and they'll have opinions. That's the beauty of the game. I've been in winter ball when people throw bottles at you. I've had good training for this job being in Philly. I don't think it will compare, but it's a good training ground. ..."

Opening Day Countdown ... Top of the 9th looks at the Bullpen/Closer debate. ... Alex Ciepley on the expectations of baseball's first openly gay ballplayer. ... The Baseball Crank posts his "AL East Established Win Shares Level Report." ... Weapons of Mass Production: Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds and Ted Williams.

Bush to 9/11 Commission: Play Dead. The Whitewash continues. The "independent" 9/11 Commission yesterday rolled over like a puppy (again) and allowed the White House to rub its belly. The Commission backed off its threat to subpoena the President's CIA-prepared Daily Briefs, deciding that a 17-page summary, as prepared by the White House, would suffice. This tidbit came on the same day that Commission chairman Thomas Kean said there was no evidence suggesting Bush and/or senior White House aides fumbled intelligence warnings of the terrorist strikes. Kean: "There were no smoking guns, nothing that would make you sit up and say, 'Wow.'" ... Alright, if there are no smoking guns, then why can't the White House release all of the requested information? And I may be just a schlub looking at mainstream news, but I could list dozens and dozens and dozens of items that have made me sit up and say Wow! [Like this] Maybe I should send some of my printouts to Mr. Kean?

California Democrat Henry Waxman is calling on Attorney General John Ashcroft to reveal who cleared members of Osama bin Laden's family and other Saudi citizens to leave the country immediately following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Rut-row: "Retired National Guard Lt. Col. Bill Burkett said Tuesday that in 1997, then-Gov. Bush's chief of staff, Joe Allbaugh, told the National Guard chief to get the Bush file and make certain 'there's not anything there that will embarrass the governor.' Col. Burkett said that a few days later at Camp Mabry in Austin, he saw Mr. Bush's file and documents from it discarded in a trash can. He said he recognized the documents as retirement point summaries and pay forms." ... "Those who encountered Bush in Alabama remember him as an affable social drinker who acted younger than his 26 years. ... he also tended to show up late every day ... prop his cowboy boots on a desk and brag about how much he drank the night before. They also remember Bush's stories about how the New Haven, Connecticut police always let him go, after he told them his name, when they stopped him 'all the time' for driving drunk as a student at Yale in the late 1960s." ... [Excellent wrapup of media coverage]

Finally, some words from Colin Powell, from his autobiography "My American Journey": "I am angry that so many sons of the powerful and well placed and many professional athletes managed to wangle slots in Reserve and National Guard units. Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to our country."

Predictions, Part 1. "Boston/Yankees" means "Boston defeats Yankees" and * = wild card.

The Sporting News

              Ken Rosenthal   Stan McNeal    Tom Gatto

              Senior Writer   Managing Ed.   Senior Ed.

AL East       Boston          New York       New York

AL Central    Minnesota       Minnesota      Kansas City

AL West       Anaheim         Anaheim        Seattle

AL Wild Card  New York        Boston         Boston



NL East       Philadelphia    Philadelphia   Philadelphia

NL Central    Chicago         Chicago        Chicago

NL West       San Francisco   Arizona        San Francisco

NL Wild Card  Houston         Florida        Houston



AL MVP        Rodriguez       Rodriguez      Rodriguez

AL Cy Young   Mussina         Schilling      Brown

AL Rookie     Mauer (Min)     Crosby (Oak)   Rios (Tor)

AL Manager    Scioscia        Francona       Melvin



NL MVP        Bonds           Bonds          Thome

NL Cy Young   Prior           Prior          Prior

NL Rookie     LaRoche (Atl)   Matsui (NYM)   Matsui (NYM)

NL Manager    Bochy           Baker          Alou



ALCS          Boston/Anaheim  Boston/Yankees Boston/Yankees

NLCS          Phillies/Cubs   Cubs/Phillies  Phillies/Cubs

World Series  Boston/Phillies Boston/Cubs    Phillies/Boston

The Sporting News

              Chris Bahr     Tricia Garner

              Associate Ed.  Associate Ed.

AL East       New York       Boston

AL Central    Kansas City    Chicago

AL West       Oakland        Oakland

AL Wild Card  Boston         New York



NL East       Atlanta        Philadelphia

NL Central    Chicago        Chicago

NL West       Arizona        San Francisco

NL Wild Card  Houston        Atlanta



AL MVP        Garciaparra    Garciaparra

AL Cy Young   Mulder         Martinez

AL Rookie     Mauer          Mauer

AL Manager    Francona       Francona



NL MVP        Sosa           Thome

NL Cy Young   Schmidt        Prior

NL Rookie     Matsui (NYM)   Matsui (NYM)

NL Manager    Williams       Alou



ALCS          Boston/Yankees Boston/Yankees

NLCS          Cubs/Astros    Cubs/Phillies

World Series  Cubs/Boston    Boston/Cubs

Street & Smith's

AL East    AL Central   AL West   NL East   NL Central  NL West

Boston     Kansas City  Seattle   Phillies  Chicago     Los Angeles

New York*  Minnesota    Anaheim   Atlanta*  St. Louis   Arizona

Toronto    Chicago      Oakland   Florida   Houston     SF Giants

Baltimore  Cleveland    Texas     New York  Cincinnati  Colorado

Tampa Bay  Detroit                Montreal  Pittsburgh  San Diego

                                            Milwaukee

MVPs: Manny Ramirez/Albert Pujols

Cy Youngs: Curt Schilling/Mark Prior 

World Series: Boston over Cubs

Lindy's Scouting Report

AL East    AL Central   AL West   NL East   NL Central  NL West

New York   Minnesota    Anaheim   Phillies  Chicago     SF Giants

Boston*    Kansas City  Oakland   Florida   Houston*    San Diego

Toronto    Chicago      Seattle   Atlanta   St. Louis   Arizona

Baltimore  Cleveland    Texas     New York  Pittsburgh  Los Angeles

Tampa Bay  Detroit                Montreal  Cincinnati  Colorado

                                            Milwaukee



MVPs: Garret Anderson/Lance Berkman

Cy Youngs: Mark Mulder/Mark Prior

Rookies of Year: Joe Mauer (Min)/Kazuo Matsui (NYM)

Rookie Pitchers: Matt Riley (Bal)/Edwin Jackson (LA)

Managers of Year: Ron Gardenhire/Felipe Alou

World Series: Cubs over Boston