Theo Speaks: It's Personal, Not Political

In a press conference Wednesday afternoon, Theo Epstein said his decision to leave the Red Sox was personal and not due to a power struggle with team president Larry Lucchino:

Larry and I like each other. As with any other working relationship there are complexities, there are ups and downs. ... If there are reports of a power struggle or meddling on behalf of Larry, that really wasn't the case. Essentially, I felt like I had pretty much a free hand to run the baseball operation the way I saw fit. ... This is a job you have to give your whole heart and soul to. In the end, after a long period of reflection about myself and the program, I decided I could no longer put my whole heart and soul into it.

Lucchino was not in attendance. John Henry said Lucchino has been "maligned and blamed for the situation for the last couple of days. I think that's wrong. I think that's inaccurate. If you want to place blame for what happened here, I'm responsible. Never in my wildest dream did I think this was ever going to happen."

It's hard to believe Epstein. I think he's simply taking the high road.

Bob Ryan (Globe):

What other conclusion can we draw from the stunning announcement that Theo Epstein has left his position as general manager of the Boston Red Sox? Theo lost a power struggle with Lucchino. ... We can draw no other conclusion. ...

What person of quality, watching how this all came down, will want the job? Larry Lucchino isn't going anywhere. He is in a stronger position than ever. Oh, sure, there will be no end to the list of wannabes and first-timers lusting for the job. But people of substance, people in possession of personal pride, people who believe that in a well-run baseball organization the personnel buck stops with the general manager, all will give pause before accepting the job as general manager of the Boston Red Sox as long as it is understood that there is no apparent limit to the power and influence of the president and CEO? ...

In the end, Theo walked away from nearly five times the amount he'd been making. He's not a fool. There had to be a very good reason.

Gerry Callahan (Herald) writes that both sides agreed before negotiations on something they called "radio silence", though it covered newspapers, as well.

Theo believes Lucchino and Charles Steinberg violated the agreement. They did their best to make him look like he was just trying to cash in, and he did the opposite: He walked out. On almost $5 million. On a 400-percent raise. On the job of his dreams. Some greed that is. ...

[Theo] told [the Sox] Sunday afternoon that it had better not happen again, and then he told the Herald's Mike Silverman late Sunday night that they hadn't reached an agreement but were still working on one. Maybe Monday. Then he woke up Monday morning, and there it was again, another story in the Globe that wasn't supposed to be there. That was the last straw. Theo decided he didn't want to work with these people for three more years -- whatever the salary -- and resigned with just hours left on his contract. ...

Now the bad news for Larry and his friends at the Globe: It doesn't matter what you do or say, no one is ever going to think of Theo as the bad guy. He looks, if nothing else, like a man of principle, a guy who didn't like the way his bosses were going behind his back and spoon-feeding stories to their favorite newspaper.

Sean McAdam (ProJo) writes that one Red Sox insider "described what was left of the relationship between Lucchino and Epstein as 'a mess.'"

Again, here is the original Shaughnessy column. He also wrote an explanatory follow-up.

Scott Van Voorhis (Herald business writer):

The Boston Globe may now be finding out what other newspapers and media companies have already discovered: Owning a professional sports team can be bad news. The Globe, whose corporate parent, The New York Times, holds a 17 percent stake in the Red Sox ownership group, has found itself at the center of a public backlash over the team's fumbling loss of general manager Theo Epstein. ... The gathering consensus in Red Sox Nation -- as judged by talk radio, angry bloggers and even some media critics and business scholars -- is that the spoon-fed story, along with Lucchino's missteps, combined to throw the Sox front office into disarray.

Reactions:

Terry Francona:

I think I took for granted a little bit that we were going to be together for a while, certainly as long as I was here. ... I think we had an outstanding relationship. This is not an easy place [to work]. You're supposed to win 162 games.

Jason Varitek:

It seems like we've had a lot of changes in this organization for a team that has just come off a world championship and was able to work its way back into the playoffs. We're seeing a lot of turnover and a lot of things changing, a lot of people you trust leaving, and a lot of people that have spent a lot of hours, from players to trainers to coaches, making this a very strong, solid organization. To see that start to go, it is a bit frustrating.

Varitek:

Hopefully, they have a plan. Hopefully, the plan is to put out the best team. [Epstein's departure] leaves a lot of gray area right now. We've got to take a little step back, not too far back, [because] there's a lot of important people that need to be dealt with. I'd love to have a conversation with Theo to find that out [the reasons behind the decision].

Bronson Arroyo:

I'm definitely surprised, and I would lean toward disappointed about him leaving because it's hard to find a general manager like Theo. He's close to our age and is just easier to communicate with. There was never a barrier there. You knew where you stood with Theo. You knew he would be honest with you.

Curt Schilling:

You don't get better losing a guy like Theo. It's obviously going to be an incredibly unpopular decision with the players. ... I'm stunned and I'm incredibly disappointed. I can't believe they allowed this to happen. This is a guy who did everything they asked of him. He's built this team. He won a World Series. And they just let him walk away.

Mike Myers:

Shock, to say the least. ... The link between Lucchino and the locker room is Theo. For Larry to do something and put Theo's neck on the line within the locker room walls is disrespectful to Theo. That probably played out in Theo's negotiations. ... I think if you go around, everybody is going to be surprised that he's not back.

Jeff Jacobs (Courant):

Whispers of power-mongering and control-freaking followed Lucchino to Boston from his previous major league stops. ... The incredibly stupid thing about this mess is neither had to go. This should have worked. It seems sad and idiotic that it didn't. ... In an age where the 24-hour news cycle allows for few shockers, this was an honest-to-goodness shocker.

J.P. Ricciardi:

I still don't believe it. I'll believe it when I'm at the general managers' meetings next week in Palm Springs and he's not in his chair. It's like a Mafia hit. You don't believe it until you see the guy at the funeral.

One MLB executive:

I really think they don't know what they're going to do or what they're doing. Who's out there: Gerry Hunsicker or Pat Gillick? None of those guys would put up with Larry.

Michael Silverman (Herald) reports:

Based on calls to executives and agents around baseball, there was unanimous shock that Epstein had declined to accept a long-term deal with the Red Sox on Monday. One industry source said the team's reputation had taken a serious dive. ... Another industry source likened the situation to an unfortunate and self-inflicted wound.

"They self-imploded at a crucial time," the source said. "I don't think anyone's happy there. You think they're going to attract free agents there right now? Besides, who would be contacting those free agents? It's sad. I feel badly because they really had it going on."

Art Martone (ProJo) offers an excellent wrap-up/analysis:

Ill will started brewing on both sides, far before the public became aware of what was going on. ... [T]he longer it dragged on, and the more contentious it got, the more Epstein began contemplating leaving the Sox. And the more he thought about it, the more the idea of tossing out all the parts of his professional life that he didn't like became more and more intoxicating.

More than one media outlet is reporting that Dan Shaughnessy's Sunday column in the Boston Globe was the straw that broke the camel's back. I don't know that for a fact, but it's plausible to me. Very plausible, especially if Theo thinks the column represented the voice, or even a voice, of Boston management. ...

I don't think [the Sox] perceive it as the baseball disaster that many others do -- as I said, they had their doubts about some of the things Theo did -- but they're P.R. geniuses and they certainly know this is a nuclear hit to their public image. The fact that they finally agreed to meet Epstein's money demands indicates, to me, that they felt they had to sign him. ...

What their negotiating tactics really did was allow Theo Epstein to contemplate life beyond the Boston Red Sox.

Tony Massarotti (Herald) says John Henry must publicly take control of the situation:

Without question, Henry has taken, and will take, his share of the blame in all of this, for one reason and one reason only: He might have stopped it.

Henry had a sense early on that negotiations between Epstein and Lucchino were not going well, but he stayed out of the way and empowered Lucchino to conduct the talks. By last week, the relationship between Lucchino and Epstein had been strained to the point where a reconciliation seemed impossible. ...

In Red Sox history, rarely, if ever, has a story of such magnitude resulted in such a one-sided outcome in the court of public opinion. Epstein was young, smart and personable. The support for him has been overwhelming.

Could Theo go to the Dodgers? ... Some of the possible candidates. ... What about in-house? ... Giants executive vice president Larry Baer: "When the first pitch of the 2006 season is thrown, Brian Sabean will be the Giants' general manager. He won't be the Red Sox general manager." ... Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi said: "I have no interest in that job, none whatsoever."

Finally, the Nation says: Thank You, Theo!

Other news: Mike Timlin signed a one-year deal for 2006. Johnny Damon, Tony Graffanino, Mike Myers and Matt Mantei all filed for free agency. ... Matt Clement and David Wells each had successful knee arthroscopies last week. Clement's procedure repaired a torn meniscus in his left knee. ... Paul Konerko's agent said the free agent first baseman expects a call from the Sox. "They're a top team with a potential first baseman's power need. Paul seems like a very good fit there."

Joel Sherman (New York Post) writes that the Yankees should "Tell Hideki Matsui his consecutive-games streak is done. Make this part of his renegotiation so it is understood now and not forced upon Torre in May. No one is going to think a guy who plays 155 games rather than 162 is a slacker." ... For the record, Manny Ramirez played 152 of 162 games last year. He played 152 games in 2004 and 154 in 2003.

Speaking of Manny, lost in the Theo Decision is a report of another trade demand. I'll comment on that soon.

Fenway Fiasco

No time to do anything online today except clip two quotes that sum up my attitude perfectly.

The first one is from the Herald's Tony Mazzarotti, who I have been quick to fault in the past, but who hits the nail on the head:

Larry Lucchino botched this from Day One, plain and simple, no ifs, ands or buts. The Red Sox can spin, distort and disguise the reality all they want, but the departure of the talented Theo Epstein will go down as one of the great management blunders in the history of the franchise. ...

Red Sox management, which once trumpeted Epstein as a member of their team, treated him like a wide-eyed intern who should have felt blessed to kneel in their presence. And when Epstein responded by biting the Sox in the kneecaps, they fired up the propaganda machine and leaked information, tried to make him look bad, did their darnedest to put him in his place. ...

So now Lucchino, like Lucille Ball, has some serious ’splaining to do. How could you let this happen, Larry? How could you chase away one of the best things to happen to Red Sox management in its frequently misguided history? How could you take a young man with so much energy and passion and competitiveness and destroy his spirit like some unrelenting, overbearing father?

And because John Henry has seen fit to extend Lucchino's contract in the Sox front office to 2010, he must share a huge part of the blame.

SoSH member Kevin Mortons Ghost:

It is absolutely disgraceful that the Red Sox as an organization would allow their president to use a troll like the CHB to torpedo a vital negotiation with a valuable and successful senior member of their team. If Lucchino couldn't work with Theo, he should have had the guts to make the decision and stick with it - not force Theo's hand through the media and then rev up the spin engine. Henry should be ashamed that his enterprise would treat Theo in this manner. ... Why would anybody else choose to work for an organization that treats its top performers this way? ...

While I agree that Theo is not irreplacable and that life will go on, it is SOOOOO disappointing that the soap opera around this team never ends. Yawkey, Sullivan, La Roux, Harrington, Duquette, Kerrigan, Grady, free agent departures too numerous to mention, Epstein, Lucchino, Manny, Pedro, Crazy Carl, it just goes on and on and on. And worst of all, winning a championship makes no difference whatsoever.

So who wants this job now, with limited power and knowing he'll be regularly undercut by press leaks from Lucchino?

Theo Stuns Sox -- Declines Offer, Leaves Club

Oh, fuck.

In a stunning development, Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein has declined the club's offer of a three-year extension of his contract, and will leave the organization.

Theo speaks:

My decision not to return as general manager of the Red Sox is an extremely difficult one. ... In my time as general manager, I gave my entire heart and soul to the organization. During the process leading up to today's decision, I came to the conclusion that I can no longer do so. In the end, my choice is the right one not only for me but for the Red Sox.

My affection for the Red Sox did not begin four years ago when I started working here, and it does not end today. I will remain on the job for several days as we finalize preparation for next week’s general managers meetings. Thereafter, I will make myself available to the organization to ensure a smooth and stable transition.

MLB, Herald.

The Herald story makes it clear that this had nothing whatsoever to do with money. ... Epstein was apparently pissed off at CHB's piece of shit Sunday column, with Larry Lucchino as the likely source of info.

FUCK YOU, Lucky!

The Joy Of Sox - 2004

"The Joy of Sox 2004" book -- consisting of my blog posts from October 16, 2003 to October 27, 2004 and a few extras -- is now available. Finally. ... One obvious fact: If I don't have a deadline, I can't (won't) get a damn thing done.

The book is being published through Cafe Press. The cover was done with the help of Leigh Hyland (aka Sibko), who runs the excellent REM Cover Studio.

A word about the price: It's $21.10 -- which honestly is way too much to pay. I'd love to make it $10 or so, but at 469 pages, it costs Cafe Press $21.07 to print the damn thing, so my "profit" will be three cents per sale.

I put this book together for myself, because I wanted something tangible from the 2004 season. ... However, if anyone out there wants a copy, you can order it here.

In Theo We (will continue to) Trust

Theo Epstein and the Red Sox have agreed on a three-year contract extension (through the 2008 season).

Item #1 on the Red Sox Winter To-Do List can be checked off.

Theo Deal Close; Cabin, Pro File

Snow/Edes in the Globe:

Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein and president/CEO Larry Lucchino met multiple times yesterday, and by last night there was every indication an agreement will be reached that will keep Epstein as GM for the next three years. A formal announcement could come today. ...

Epstein and the Sox were believed to be only $300,000 apart earlier in the week. On Tuesday, Lucchino offered Epstein $1.2 million per year for three years, upping the club's initial offer of $850,000 per season. Epstein, whose contract expires Monday, is believed to have made $350,000 this season and desires a bump to $1.5 million per year.

Also, Kevin Millar and Bill Mueller filed for free agency.

Theo Decision Expected Today

Earlier this week, Theo Epstein rejected the Red Sox's contract offer of at least three years at $1.2 million per. Globe:

While money is a major factor in the negotiations, it is growing increasingly apparent that there are other issues, namely a personality clash in management styles between [Larry] Lucchino and Epstein that transcends chain-of-command questions.

Until a decision is announced (today?), Bob Ryan offers his thoughts, as does Tony Massarotti (here).

Greg Genske, Manny Ramirez's agent, says Manny does not want to play for the Mets. "As long as he's under contract, his loyalty is to the Red Sox. But if the Red Sox do want to trade him, the Angels are the most attractive option. Manny has a lot of respect for Orlando Cabrera and Vladimir Guerrero and for that organization." ... Genske also mentioned Cleveland.

Richard Chacón, the Globe's Ombudsman, examines the paper's relationship with the Red Sox. The first of two articles looks at "the Globe's corporate ties to the Red Sox. The second column will address readers' questions on the newspaper's coverage."

The Sox also dismissed assistant trainer and rehabilitation coordinator Chris Correnti.

It was one year ago today.

WS4: White Sox 1, Astros 0

Another World Series sweep -- and another team erases a multi-generational drought.

Congratulations to all White Sox fans!

WS3: White Sox 7, Astros 5 (14)

Damn! Now that's a baseball game! ... Thousands of words could be written about the longest (by time; 5:41) World Series game in history (Jayson Stark is always fun with games like this), but I'll mention only a few things (being tired at work after not getting to bed until 2:45):

Houston's offense is pathetic. ... After Jason Lane led off the bottom of the fourth with a home run (which actually hit off the in-play side of the yellow line in left center), the Astros sent 47 batters to the plate (over 11 innings) and managed only one hit.

Thanks to a 11 walks, two errors and a HBP, the Astros left two men on in the 8th (when they tied the game 5-5, after blowing a 4-0 lead), three on in the 9th (man on 3rd with one out), 2 on in the 10th, 2 on in the 11th (they had 1st/2nd with 1 out), and 2 on in the 14th.

I was surprised Roy Oswalt was left in to face a WS-record 11 batters (and throw a career-high 46 pitches) in the 5th inning. In fact, Phil Garner didn't have anyone warming up until the 11th batter was stepping in. Oswalt's implosion meant his team was trailing by only one run, but still ...

Why did Ozzie Guillen call on Dustin "I haven't pitched in 25 days" Hermanson in the 8th? That couldn't have been his best option. Hermanson gave up the only hit Houston recorded after the 4th inning, a game-tying double to Lane.

I continue to be amazed that no World Series game has ever gone 15 (or more) innings. Game 2 in 1916 (Red Sox 2, Dodgers 1; Babe Ruth CG) is the only other contest to last fourteen innings.

In the bottom of the 7th, with Chicago up 5-4, this was put on the screen:

1 team has come back from a 0-3 deficit to win a post. series

I expect (nay, demand) to see several Red Sox montages before and during Game 4 tonight.

Bloggers: White Sox and Astros.

WS2: White Sox 7, Astros 6

A great game, some amazing swings of momentum, but all the way through, right up to Podsednik's game-ending home run, I felt nothing. No tension, no release. I know there were fans of both sides in agony and ecstasy, like we were last year, yet there I am, dutifully keeping score and feeling as though I'm watching through several layers of gauze (or something).

Update to Rooting Interest: I cast my lot with Chicago in the last post, but I do not like the White Sox. Simple as that. Most of it stems from the media's infatuation with their (often counterproductive, imo) style of play -- which isn't actually one thing or the other, despite the talk -- their manager, and several of their players. And with no Clemens in the picture for Game 2, I found myself sort of rooting for Houston.

Sign of the Night: "Rut-Roh Rastros"

Obligatory Idiotic Sutcliffe Quote: "I didn't think anyone would make as much money as Alex Rodriguez, but Konerko, if he keeps this up, might top it."

The grand slam was huge, no doubt about it (taking full advantage of the non-HBP to Dye), but does Sutcliffe really think some team will offer Konerko $30 million a year or a $300,000,000 contract?

WS1: White Sox 5, Astros 3

The White Sox took Game 1 easily, touching Roger Clemens for three early runs and relying on the strong pitching of Jose Contreras, Neil Cotts and fireballing Bobby Jenks. The Chicago offense was balanced, with eight of the nine batters hitting safely, and five different Sox driving in runs.

Clemens was the second-oldest pitcher to start a World Series game, behind only 46-year-old Jack Quinn of the 1929 Philadelphia Athletics. Fat Billy was not sharp at all, touching only 92 with his fastball, throwing 25 and 29 pitches in his two innings of work. With the game tied 3-3, he did not come out for the third inning, citing hamstring problems.

Holding a 4-3 lead, Jose Contreras allowed a leadoff double to Willy Taveras to start the top of the eighth. Neil Cotts came on and allowed a single to Lance Berkman, moving Taveras to third with no outs. Cotts came back to strike out Morgan Ensberg and Mike Lamb. The TV gun showed Cotts at 88-90, but it seemed he was throwing harder than that.

With Jeff Bagwell up, Ozzie Guillen called Jenks in. Pinch-runner Chris Burke stole second, putting runners at second and third, but Bagwell struck out, unable to catch up to Jenks's 98 mph heat.

The White Sox added an insurance run in their eighth before Jenks finished off the Astros on eight pitches (all strikes) in the ninth:

Jason Lane: called, foul, swing/miss.
Brad Ausmus: called, groundout to shortstop.
Adam Everett: called, swing/miss, swing/miss.

It turns out that I'm not listening to Buck/McCarver. It appears that anyone outside the US gets to hear Dave O'Brien and Rick Sutcliffe. There is no Fox logo on-screen (only the MLB logo) and the lineups also featured the player's country's flag.

Sadly, it didn't take long before I was wishing I could hear McCarver. Because even though he's drifting into senility before our ears, he will say some smart stuff every so often. Not so with Sutcliffe.

Sut's main problem is that he feels he must praise everyone, all the time. He gives the unmistakable impression that every baseball player is the greatest of all-time at something. And he has the insight to tell us exactly what that is. The gushing usually occurs when a player is hitting, but it can also be in the field. After Joe Crede's two run-saving plays at third base in the sixth and seventh innings -- admittedly, damn good stops -- I thought Sutcliffe might pass out from excitement.

But in his attempts to put every player in a good light, Sutcliffe ends up gushing over the silliest things. When Bagwell was hit by a pitch in the second inning, Sutcliffe told us to "look how fundamentally sound he turns away from that pitch." It doesn't take long before his praise becomes meaningless fluff -- because if everyone is great, then no one is great.

Rooting Interest: I will always root for the Clemens-less team, so go White Sox! Make your longtime fans as happy as we were last October.

And speaking of happy Red Sox fans: We have a new third base coach! Woo-hoo! DeMarlo Hale takes over for Dale Sveum, who will be responsible for a lot of outs at home plate for the Brewers.

David Wells wants a trade back to the west coast. I was surprised Wells's ERA+ this season was only 99, just a hair below league average. Next year, he'll be fat, 43, and recovering from knee surgery, so I don't think he'll be missed.

World Series Repeats

The White Sox and Astros begin the World Series tomorrow night. Obviously , both clubs did not play in last years's series. I wondered how often the same two teams have met in consecutive fall classics (winners in bold).

Year AL        NL

1907 Tigers    Cubs
1908 Tigers    Cubs

1921 Yankees   Giants
1922 Yankees   Giants
1923 Yankees   Giants

1930 Athletics Cardinals
1931 Athletics Cardinals

1936 Yankees   Giants
1937 Yankees   Giants

1942 Yankees   Cardinals
1943 Yankees   Cardinals

1952 Yankees   Dodgers
1953 Yankees   Dodgers

1955 Yankees   Dodgers
1956 Yankees   Dodgers

1957 Yankees   Milwaukee
1958 Yankees   Milwaukee

1977 Yankees   Dodgers
1978 Yankees   Dodgers

Bill James

In mid-2004, Rich Lederer at Baseball Analysts posted some highlights from all of the Bill James Abstracts. His 12-part series begins here with 1977. I have copies of the 1982-1988 books -- but not the homemade 1977-1981 editions -- so it's great to read at least some of the earlier books (tables of contents for the abstracts (and links to other James writings) are here).

Here are some quotes from James about what he does (and doesn't do).

From 1979:

I am a mechanic with numbers, tinkering with the records of baseball games to see how the machinery of the baseball offense works. I do not start with the numbers any more than a mechanic starts with a monkey wrench. I start with the game, with the things that I see and the things that people say there. And I ask, "Is it true? Can you validate it? Can you measure it? How does it fit in with the rest of the machinery?" And for those answers, I go to the record books.

What is remarkable to me is that I have so little company. Baseball keeps copious records, and people talk about them and argue about them and think about them a great deal. Why doesn't anybody use them? Why doesn't anybody say, in the face of this contention or that one, "Prove it. Baseball's got a million records and if that is true you can prove it, so prove it." Why do people argue about which catcher throws best, rather than figure the catchers' records against base-stealers? I really don't know.

From 1980:

A year ago I wrote in this letter that what I do does not have a name and cannot be explained in a sentence or two. Well, now I have given it a name: Sabermetrics, the first part to honor the acronym of the Society for American Baseball Research, the second part to indicate measurement. Sabermetrics is the mathematical and statistical analysis of baseball records.

From 1981:

1) Sportswriting draws on the available evidence, and forces conclusions by selecting and arranging that evidence so that it points in the direction desired. Sabermetrics introduces new evidence, previously unknown data derived from original source material.

2) Sportswriting designs its analysis to fit the situation being discussed; sabermetrics designs methods which would be applicable not only in the present case but in any other comparable situation. The sportswriter say this player is better than that one because this player had 20 more home runs, 10 more doubles, and 40 more walks and those things are more important than that players 60 extra base hits and 31 extra stolen bases, and besides, there is always defense and if all else fails team leadership. If player C is introduced into this discussion, he is a whole new article. Sabermetrics puts into place formulas, schematic designs, or theories of relationship which could compare not only this player to that one, but to any player who might be introduced into the discussion.

3) Sportswriters characteristically begin their analysis with a position on an issue; sabermetrics begins with the issue itself. The most over-used form in journalism is the diatribe, the endless impassioned and quasi-logical pitches for the cause of the day--Mike Norris for the Cy Young Award, Rickey Henderson for MVP, Gil Hodges for the Hall of Fame, everybody for lower salaries and let's all line up against the DH. Sportswriting "analysis" is largely an adversary process, with the most successful sportswriter being the one who is the most effective advocate of his position. I personally, of course, have positions which I advocate occasionally, but sabermetrics by its nature is unemotional, non-committal. The sportswriter attempts to be a good lawyer; the sabermetrician, a fair judge.

For that reason, good sabermetrics respects the validity of all types of evidence, including that which is beyond the scope of statistical validation.

And:

Bad sabermetrics attempts to end the discussion by saying that I have studied the issue and this is the answer. Good sabermetrics attempts to contribute to the discussion in such a way as to enable it to move forward on a ground of common understanding.

James published one collection of his writings -- This Time, Let's Not Eat The Bones (1989) -- but I think that a reprint of the first five abstracts would find a decent-sized audience. (Reading the comments at Rich's posts, you can see that this is by no means an original thought.) The stats and discussions would be between 25 and 30 years old, but it would be dirt cheap to put together and there are many seamheads who would snap it up at first sight.

Nixon Has Knee Surgery

Not a whole lot of news ...

Trot Nixon underwent arthroscopic left knee surgery Friday.

Tony Massarotti writes that there "have been recent indications" that Mike Timlin could sign a deal for 2006, but fails to tell us what any of those indications are. ... Adam Hyzdu was released, and Jeremi Gonzalez, Chad Harville, and Mike Stanton were designated for assignment. Pitcher Edgar Martinez was added to the 40-man roster.

ESPN's Jayson Stark notes that David Wells (who lost a 4-0 lead in ALCS 2) has never lost a regular-season game in which he had a lead of four runs. Over his 19-year career, Wells is 135-0, with 16 no-decisions. ... Of course, Orson could have blown a four-run lead and received a no-decision or been lucky enough to have his team rally. Still ...

More Manny

According to "a source close to Ramirez who was authorized by the player to speak for him" and someone "who's been in daily contact" with Manny since the Red Sox were bounced from the ALDS, the slugger wants to sit down with management for a discussion about the club's future.

I get the feeling that he wants to stay in Boston, but I also get the feeling that he wants to know what the direction of the team is going to be. ... Manny wants the team to get better, and he is concerned. ...

They may have already made conscious decisions to let some players go, they may say that they're trying to bring somebody back. Manny just wants to be able to give his opinion on certain things. He's an important part of the team, and like any star player on the team, he at least wants to know what they're planning. ...

He's given me every indication he's happy where he is. He's upset that the Red Sox lost in the playoffs and he's upset that everyone's been talking about him when they shouldn't be focused on him."

The source also said that the story of Manny switching agents was a "crock".

Here's some silliness from Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record, headlined "Yankee Doodle Manny?"

Can you envision Manny Ramirez, the American League's most dangerous, late-inning threat from the right side, wearing pinstripes in 2006? None other than Ramirez himself has ... [telling] friends in the final weeks of the regular season he would accept, if not welcome, a trade to either New York team ...

Ramirez is "definitely ready to come to New York," said the friend, who dined with the left fielder during the Sox' road series against the Yankees. "He likes the Yankees, the Mets, either one, he just wants to be here."

Please. Theo is not trading Manny to his team's main rival.

Thank You, Howard Bryant

From his Wednesday Herald column (my emphasis):

I don't believe players should ever be booed for failing to produce. It's not like they are TRYING to strike out with the bases loaded ...

The problem is that so much of a player's persona is cosmetic. Trot Nixon quietly produced nothing in the crucial month of September, and he earns twice as much as Millar, is a platoon player, hit .223 with five homers and 30 RBI at Fenway, and .233 with a home run in September. Yet he is perceived as the consummate competitor and has never faced the anger of the nation.

But does Nixon play the game any harder than Millar, Renteria or Bellhorn? When Nixon hits a two-hop, automatic out to second base, he jogs to first in the exact same manner as Ramirez and 99 percent of baseball players at the major league level.

And nobody says a word.

Well, almost nobody. :>)

Pedro's Evil Plan

Gerry Callahan (Herald) says Pedro Martinez is hellbent on causing

the complete and utter demise of the Red Sox organization [and] the next phase of his diabolical plan [is] Making Manny a Met. ...

If Manny wanted to go back to Cleveland or down to Miami, that would be one thing. But we're talking about a perennial .500 team in Queens.

Someone must have convinced him that he would he happy in Metland, and that someone must have been a person Manny respects. It would help if that someone were smart and persuasive, perhaps even bilingual. And I'm guessing it's someone who not only would like to add a big bat to the Mets lineup, but also would love to mess with the Red Sox.

Call me rash, but I'm going to rule out Doug Mientkiewicz and Brian Daubach. ...

While his new club finished seven games out in the NL East, Pedro insisted he was happy in New York ... He even went so far as to hand out business cards with his cell phone number to the Mets beat writers at the end of the season.

"Call me when we get Manny," he told the scribes.

In his Monday column, Steve Buckley (Herald) wrote:

Talk to pretty much anyone connected with the Red Sox, and you'll be told that Epstein was on the cusp of trading superstar Manny Ramirez at the trading deadline in July, only to have Lucchino step in and crow that the Sox weren't getting enough in return.

So Theo is open to trading Manny and Ramirez apparently wouldn't mind leaving (though the seriousness of his requests, however many of them have been made (and to whom), has been in some doubt), and though Manny has only three seasons left on his contract, it seems as though the front office will once again entertain offers for the team's best (or second best?) hitter over the winter.

Boston obviously will not be able to replace Ramirez's production at the plate -- no matter who they get in return. The question is: Could they get several other solid players or some excellent pitchers in exchange? It seems unlikely.

Trading Manny for players of less value is stupid. And paying part of his salary so he can beat up on pitchers in another uniform is equally dumb. If the front office gets bowled over by an offer, then I suppose they will (should) take it. But I can't see any team capable of paying Manny's salary presenting the Red Sox with a huge package of talent for a player who allegedly wants out of his current situation and someone the Sox are at least semi-eager to get rid of. Boston is not in a favorable position.

In 2005, Ramirez was 4th in the American League in slugging, 4th in OPS, 4th in Adjusted OPS, 3rd in HR, 2nd in RBI, and 5th in Runs Created. And this was in a season he supposedly was slumping. ... When I look at the MVP numbers for David Ortiz and A-Dog, I should also include Manny.

And Ramirez led all major leaguer outfielders with 17 assists. Mediots say that's because so many runners test Manny's arm. Well, they run all day long on Damon's noodle, and he finished with only five assists. Damon also made six errors, one fewer than Manny.

(I present the Pedro story more for entertainment than news. I question how much power one player could have over a GM.)

Mind Game

Next on my reading list -- I hope, after my birthday this weekend -- should be "Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning" by the folks at Baseball Prospectus.

At SoSH, Rough Carrigan writes: "If Moneyball was sabremetrics 101 or perhaps just a seminar, this book is sabremetrics 201."

RedSoxNation has interviews with some of the authors, including Steven Goldman (Parts One and Two) and Jay Jaffe (here), and they promise interviews with Chris Kahrl and Jonah Keri very soon.

The Questions Begin

What will the 2006 roster look like?

Johnny Damon, Bill Mueller, Tony Graffanino, Kevin Millar, Mike Timlin, Mike Myers, John Olerud, and Matt Mantei are all free agents. (So is GM Theo Epstein.) David Wells will have knee surgery and is considering retirement.

Who will play third: Bill Mueller or Kevin Youkilis? Who will play first base? Which of the promising youngsters -- Jonathan Papelbon, Craig Hansen, Manny Delcarmen, Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Lenny DiNardo -- should be brought into the mix?

Can Keith Foulke, Curt Schilling, Edgar Renteria, and Trot Nixon overcome the various injuries that plagued them this season?

And then there is the Manny Question. The Red Sox will listen to trade offers for Ramirez (no harm in listening), but as Gordon Edes points out, "with only three years and roughly $60 million left on his contract, moving him would not create as much financial flexibility as it would have in the past, making a trade less likely."

The front office is also apparently not convinced that Manny is unhappy in Boston. And when I checked a poll at the Globe's site, out of 14,386 votes, 70.5% want Manny to stay. (So do I; how will we replace those 17 assists in left field!)

Alan Embree:

I have friends over there and you don't want to see them go through bad times. But for management to get rid of me the way they did, [the loss] was kind of satisfying to watch.

It's a start: Matt Clement has shaved his ugly goatee.

Manny Wants To Play For White Sox?

Doug Padilla, Chicago Sun-Times:

If seeing high-priced Manny Ramirez in a White Sox uniform next season sounds far-fetched, consider that the Boston Red Sox outfielder has said he would like it to happen.

According to a source, Ramirez told multiple White Sox players earlier this season that he wanted to play on the South Side and suit up for manager Ozzie Guillen.

Sketchy, but we'll see if the Boston papers pick up on it.