May 20, 2010

G42: Red Sox 6, Twins 2

Twins   - 000 000 011 - 2  6  0
Red Sox - 013 011 00x - 6 8 1
Lester: 9-6-2-0-9, 103.

Kevin Youkilis hit a three-run home run to the back wall in dead center to put the game on ice in the third. Yook also drove in a run in the fifth inning. Adrian Beltre homered in the second and doubled and scored in the sixth.

Lester -- in his 100th career start -- was at the top of his game, allowing only one runner to second base in the first seven innings. His strikeouts of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the seventh, both looking, were devastating. His economical pitch count: 9-12-10 9-10-8 14-12-19 = 103.

Tampa Bay (30-11) beat the Yankees 8-6 to extend its lead in the East to 5 games. Boston is now only 3.5 games out of second place -- or the Yankees are 3.5 games out of fourth place.
Example
Francisco Liriano / Jon Lester
McDonald, CF
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Lowell, DH
Beltre, 3B
Drew, RF
Hall, LF
Sanchez, SS
Since April 18, when his ERA was 8.44, Lester has made five starts: 1.82 ERA in 34.2 innings. He has pitched at least seven innings in each of his last four outings.

Liriano has gone at least six innings in all seven of his 2010 starts; he had a 23-inning scoreless streak in April. He lost to the Yankees (6-9-3-0-7, 101) last time out.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron batted 1-2 in Portland's lineup this afternoon. Ellsbury went 3-for-4, with a double, stolen base, and a run, while Cameron was 1-for-4 with an RBI double (he knocked in LBJ) and a run. The Sea Dogs lost 6-2. ... Lefty Felix Doubront was promoted to Pawtucket.
Example
Red Sox/Yankees - Battle of the Back-Up Catchers

Top RBI per plate appearance among catchers (min. 20 PA):
0.219 - Ryan Hanigan, Reds
0.213 - Jason Varitek, Red Sox
0.210 - Francisco Cervelli, Yankees
0.197 - John Jaso, Rays
          PA   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   BABIP
Varitek 47 .317 .404 .805 1.209 .304
Cervelli 81 .373 .442 .493 .934 .417
The Cactus has thrown out only 19% of SB attempts (3 of 16), but Cervelli (who I guess will not be a back-up for the next 3-4 weeks) is worse: 1 of 13, 8%.

The Cabin Returns

Kevin Millar has joined NESN as a studio analyst. He will make his debut on May 27.

I assume this surprises no one.

It looks like he will be working for NESN at the same time he is playing for the St. Paul Saints.

Wild Card Race

Tampa Bay is 29-11*, with a comfortable lead over the Yankees (4 GA), Blue Jays (5 GA), and Red Sox (8.5 GA).

* It's the best record through 40 games since the 2002 Red Sox. They actually got to 40-17, before finishing out the year 53-52.

If the Rays stumble and play .500 ball for the rest of the season, they will finish with 90 wins. If they continue at their current pace, they will win 117 games -- a new MLB record.

The Dodgers have the 12th best winning percentage in MLB, at .550. If the Rays play at .550 for the rest of the year, they'll finish with 96 wins. The Red Sox would have to go 76-45 (.628, 102-win pace) to top them.)

I'm ready (almost) to accept that the Red Sox are not going to win the East*. I detest the wild card, but it looks like it's the only hope we have of playing any games after October 3.

* Though if a team can come from 14 GB in mid-July ... hmmm ... but that would involve the Rays hiring the Gerbil, which is probably not going to happen ...)

So ...

Wild Card Standings (with 121 games to go!)
Yankees   25  15  .625  --
Blue Jays 25 17 .595 1.0
Tigers 23 17 .575 2.0
Red Sox 21 20 .512 4.5
A's 20 21 .488 5.5
Things are not well in New York.

Jorge Posada (the team leader in OPS+) has a right foot fracture and will miss about a month. Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson are on the disabled list, Marcus Thames sprained his left ankle last night, Nick Swisher is out with a strained left biceps, and Mark Teixeira has a lower slugging percentage than Darnell McDonald.

Derek Jeter is 8-for-48 (.167) over his last 11 games and is batting .190/.264/.228 in May. Since April 20, he's hitting .220. His .699 OPS for the season is only slightly better than Bill Hall's.

And New York's 1-2 punch in the bullpen has faltered lately: Mariano Rivera has allowed 4 runs over his last 9 batters and Joba Chamberlain has allowed 7 runs to his last 12 batters.

After tonight's game against the Rays, the Yankees hit the road to play the Mets and Twins before coming home for games against Cleveland and the Orioles.

May 19, 2010

Red Sox Call Up SS Angel Sanchez; Scutaro Gets Cortisone Shot; Schoeneweis DFA

Marco Scutaro received a cortisone shot in his left (non-throwing) elbow before Wednesday's game and likely will be unavailable for two days. The Red Sox have called up Pawtucket shortstop Angel Sanchez, who will be in tonight's lineup.

Theo Epstein said Scutaro's "tennis elbow" has made it difficult for him to close his glove, which might be why he looked so bad on Slappy's routine grounder to start the ninth inning on Tuesday.

Sanchez played in eight games with the Royals in 2006; he is hitting .313/.375/.359 (36 of his 41 hits have been singles) for the PawSox. To make room for Sanchez, Scott Schoeneweis was designated for assignment.

Gordon Edes says Sanchez will be a temporary move and Scott Atchison will likely take the available chair in the bullpen.

G41: Red Sox 3, Twins 2

Twins   - 000 100 001 - 2  6  0
Red Sox - 000 201 00x - 3 10 1
Buchholz, armed with a terrific changeup and slider, pitched eight strong innings (8-5-2-1-7, 104), David Ortiz hit a two-run home run that survived the umpires' review, Bill Hall added a key insurance run by lining the third of three two-out singles in the sixth, and a slightly-shaky Daniel Bard recorded his first save of the year.

Only three of Buchholz's 24 outs were recorded outside of the infield (the last out in the second and the first two batters in the third). Victor Martinez singled twice and was on base when Flo launched his 8th dong. Adrian Beltre also had two hits and scored a run.

Tampa Bay beat the Yankees 10-6 and now lead the East by 4 games. The Red Sox remain 8.5 GB. The Blue Jays are in Seattle.
Example
Scott Baker / Clay Buchholz
Drew, RF
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
Hermida, LF
Hall, SS
McDonald, CF
Jeremy Hermida has the best RBI% on the team. Note to media and various fans: See who is #2?

The Red Sox are hitting much better than their opponents, yet have scored eight fewer runs and are 20-20.
            AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   RUNS
Red Sox .270 .350 .454 .804 210
Opponents .260 .338 .426 .764 218
With runners on base, the Red Sox and their opponents have similar OBP and SLG, but Boston is batting only .269 to its opponents' .281.

OBP from Batting Order Spot
      BOS    OPP
#2 .377 .282
#3 .289 .359
Example
Also at 7: Rays at Yankees. Tampa Bay (who might not get J.P. Howell back this season, not that his absence has slowed them down so far) is 3 GA of the MFY and 8.5 GA of the Sox. I don't want to fall any further behind, so I guess that means I'd like the Rays to lose both of their games in the Bronx.

Dan Graziano writes that the Rays-Yankees series might be "between the best two teams in baseball", but the Red Sox and Yankees "still have the market cornered on crazy, as they proved by packing a week's worth of eventful baseball insanity into the past two nights".
Example
On this date in 2008, Jon Lester pitched a no-hitter against the Royals. (JoS)

Beckett On Disabled List

Peter Abraham, Globe:
Josh Beckett's bad back has landed him on the disabled list. Joe Nelson was called up.
Maybe this is all just part of the plan to get Girardi's protest rejected.

Balls And Strikes

Before the nail-biting drama of the last two innings, one big story of last night's game for me was a few questionable ball/strike calls in the fifth inning and reactions to them from the field and benches.

With two outs in the fifth inning, Dustin Pedroia took a 3-1 pitch from CC Sabathia and made a move towards first base, assuming it would be called Ball 4. It was not. Pedroia then took the 3-2 pitch, and again was on his way to first base when home plate umpire Angel Campos rang him up. I'm not much of a lipreader but as Pedroia expressed his annoyance at Campos, CC was walking off the mound, barking at him: "That's a fucking strike, you fuckin' ..."

And according to pitch f/x data at Brooks Baseball, both pitches to Pedroia were in the strike zone.In the bottom of the fifth, with New York up 3-0 and a man on second and one out, Beckett's 3-2 pitch to Mark Teixeira was called low for Ball 4. On the Red Sox bench, Terry Francona and John Farrell were both livid. "That's the same pitch!" Tito was yelling at Campos, presumably meaning the same strike that was called on Pedroia.Francona was right. Beckett had indeed thrown Strike 3 to Teixeira, but the inning continued and eventually Beckett allowed two more runs.

In the ninth, I was convinced that Mariano Rivera's 1-2 pitch to Jeremy Hermida was a strike, which, if called, would have been the third out of the ninth inning and the game would have remained tied 5-5.The pitch in question (#4) is clearly outside. Good call by Campos. You can see that on his second pitch to Hermida, Rivera received a gift strike call. It has been a long-standing complaint among Sox fans (and fans of other Yankee opponents?) that Rivera is given an extraordinary number of strike calls on pitches just wide of the zone. Besides the error of the call (though it is pretty close to the edge of the zone), Fruitbat doesn't require any extra assistance beyond his own enormous talent to get hitters out. I wonder if the last three or four seasons of f/x data would confirm the existence of the Rivera Zone™?

Fangraphs

After seven innings last night, the Yankees had a 96% chance of winning. When Jeremy Hermida doubled off Mariano Rivera, New York's chances dropped from 49.6% to 9.0%.
On Monday, New York was at 91.7% with two outs in the top of the fifth. Boston whittled that down to 14.8% after the two home runs in the eighth and the Yankees stood at 10.5% going into the bottom of the ninth.

Beckett Tweaks Back; Lowell Dissatisfied

The Yankees played the last four innings under protest because Joe Girardi claimed the Red Sox "signaled to the bullpen before they announced to the umpire that [Beckett] was hurt".

A replay showed Beckett's landing foot slipping in the wet dirt on a 1-1 pitch that Rodriguez lined to left for the inning's second out. Beckett was griping and pointing to the mound.
It wasn't something that was getting tight throughout the game. It was that one pitch, and it got tighter and tighter for the next six or seven pitches.
Tito:
John went out to talk to (Beckett), and when Beckett said his back tightened up, he said we needed another pitcher and the umpire said OK. After that, I didn't pay much attention to it.
Michael Silverman reported that "nobody had been warming up" in the bullpen when Beckett left "suddenly, without apparent warning". But I'm pretty sure I saw MDC up in the pen a couple of batters before Cano, probably after Beckett walked Teixeira.

Farrell does not make pitching changes, so when he visited the mound and then motioned to the pen, there was likely something wrong. The replay of Beckett slipping on the mound six pitches earlier -- and his discomfort from swinging a bat roughly 10 days ago -- back that up.
Example
It is no surprise that Mike Lowell is unhappy.
[I]t's painfully evident I don't have a role on the team ... [S]ometimes you feel like the team might be better off if you're not on it. I just eat up a roster spot. ... David and myself are basically two roster spots that don't play on the field.
Lowell was asked if he had considered asking to be released? "Have I given it thought? Sure. I think that's a normal train of thought to go through. ... I haven't looked that deep into it."

It's natural for Lowell to be dissatisfied. But his timing -- the day after a crushing defeat -- is very bad.
Example
Francona lifted J.D. Drew after the Red Sox tied the game in the eighth.
His left calf was hurting and then he was trying to compensate, and he felt his right hammy, so it was cold so we got him out of there. That ended up being the best thing I did all night.
Drew:
I'm a smart kind of player like that. I take myself out just in time for Hermida to hit a big double.
A couple of tidbits from Elias via Benjamin: "The five-run lead for the Yankees was the largest the Sox have overcome in New York since coming back from a 5-0 deficit July 26, 1994, according to the Elias Sports Bureau ... Monday night marked just the second time the Sox had overcome a deficit of at least five runs before losing the lead in the bottom of the ninth vs. the Yankees, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. It last happened Oct. 2, 1921."

May 18, 2010

G40: Red Sox 7, Yankees 6

Red Sox - 000 001 042 - 7 10  2
Yankees - 020 120 001 - 6 8 2
During the bottom of the ninth inning, as Jonathan Papelbon weaved and bobbed and seemed to be slipping on the high wire, an old Richard Thompson song popped into my head. It was back in 1983 and he was singing about something other than baseball, but the line has stayed with me: "My heart was beating like a song by the Clash".

You wouldn't think that a game on May 18 could make a fan of an underachieving team solidly in fourth place and coming off its most demoralizing loss of the year feel like it was actually October 18 with the pennant hanging in the balance.

But with Randy Winn in the box with two outs and the tying run at third and winning run at second, in a game that I had emotionally tossed the metaphorical white towel in on after seven innings and a 5-1 Yankees lead, only to be utterly delighted and reawakened by the sight of Joba Chamberlain flat-brimming his way to allowing four Boston runs before recording a second out (though both outs were gifts, as Victor hacked on 3-0 and Ortiz literally walked to first watching his fly ball not leave the park), and then having Daniel Bard slam the door on Hideki Okajima's little two-out mess in the eighth and preserve the tie, and then watch the Sox rally for two more runs against Mariano Rivera, a key play of which was Marcus Thames dropping Marco Scutaro's pop-up in short right and literally kicking it into right-center, then Jeremy Hermida (who had replaced a possibly injured J.D. Drew after Drew had hit a key double against Joba), clearly looking at strike three on a 1-2 pitch inside, which would have ended the inning with the game 5-5, but for some reason not having the plate umpire ring him up, whacking a two-run double far over Winn's head in left field, and then hoping Bard would return for the ninth, but no, it's Papelbon, yikes, and Slappy reaches as his ground ball lazily rolls past Scutaro's back-handed glove into left, Cano doubles, it's now 7-6, Cano is sac'd to third and Thames walks (but not before ball 2 is up and not really that far in, but Thames backs away quickly anyway and glares out at Bot; a fight - now? in the rain?) and Pena runs for Thames at first and goes to second as Miranda smacks a hard, low snake to Papelbon, who twists and turns (seemingly in panic, though that was probably a bit of projection by me) before throwing to first, and so now Winn is up and the count is 2-1 and here's where my heart is thumping like it's the ALCS, Winn fouls off a pitch, takes ball three, full count, and if he walks, the bases will be loaded for Jeter, who hasn't done a thing all night, but it's still not a situation I would willingly ask for, and Winn fouls off another 3-2 pitch, and then suddenly, he swings and misses. And immediately, everything stops. It's actually slightly disorienting. Winn is out, it's the third out, the inning is over, and that means the Sox win the game. Jesus, can I take a breath now?

And it turns out that the Thompson line in "Tear-Stained Letter" is: "My head was beating like a song by the Clash". ... I like what I remembered much better.

I'm not sure two other games, without the added intensity of extra innings, could offer as much drama and tension as this little mid-May series did. The remaining 122 games of the regular season will unfold however they do, but after tonight, you should neither need nor demand any additional evidence of this Red Sox team refusal to quit. They will claw and scrape and battle to the very last out. (And shame on me for assuming this one was over.)

An impartial observer watching these two games would come away thinking baseball is the most amazing, exhilarating, action-packed, heart-stopping, emotionally-draining game ever devised. And, of course, she'd be right.
Example
Start of game delayed by rain. 8 PM start expected.

Mike Lowell is very frustrated, says he has thought about asking for his release.
Example
Josh Beckett / CC Sabathia

It's raining in New York.
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Drew, RF
Youkilis, 1B
Martinez, C
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
Hall, LF
McDonald, CF
Lost amid the shitastic ending last night was some good hitting: Victor Martinez was 0-for-his-last-19 before he homered from both sides of the plate, the first time a Boston player has done that since Jason Varitek on August 16, 2005 (crazy linescore -- and it was the second start/game of Jonathan Papelbon's career).

David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, and J.D. Drew also went deep. Drew's dong was especially big, cutting New York's lead in the fifth from 6-2 to 6-5. That rally started after Phil Hughes retired the first two batters on only three pitches.

B-Ref: "Are The Red Sox Toast?"

If you need it: "Vent Thread: Where SoSH Proves It Can't Handle Mediocrity"

Red Sox/Yankees WPA Leaders Since 1995

ESPN's Mark Simon took a look at the Win Probability Added data for all regular-season Red Sox/Yankees games since 1995 -- the beginning of the wild-card era.

Simon uses one play from June 3, 2007 to illustrate how WPA works. Alex Rodriguez was batting against Jonathan Papelbon (top 9th, tie game, two outs, no one on base). From all of the existing play-by-play data, we know that teams in the Yankees' position at that moment have won 38% of the time. Slappy hit a home run.* In the new situation (top 9th, visiting team up by 1, two outs, no one on base), teams win 78% of the time.

* I was set to post this yesterday afternoon, but held it back when L said her guest post was ready. Bad example in light of last night's debacle!

The Yankees' chances of winning increased by 40%, so Rodriguez gets 40 percentage points (0.40) for hitting the home run and Papelbon receives a debit of 40 percentage points (-0.40) for allowing it. When you do that for every play in every game, you get a total of how much a player increased or decreased his team's chance of winning.

Note: WPA measures only hitting and pitching, not base running or fielding (or the calmness of one's eyes). And perhaps because of that oversight, CI is merely 13th on the Yankees' list of most productive hitters against the Red Sox over the last 14 years -- with less than one-half of one win to his credit -- falling in comfortably behind Enrique Wilson.

Worst hitter and pitcher for each side: Shane Spencer and Jose Contreras; Jason Varitek and (by a huge margin) Derek Lowe. (Second-worst Boston hitter and pitcher? J.D. Drew and tonight's starter Josh Beckett.)

Flat Fastballs, One After The Other

One week ago, Jonathan Papelbon was mixing his fastball with his slider and splitter with ease. He said his ability to repeat his delivery and his arsenal of pitches was "probably at its peak". So why, last night against the Yankees, were all 19 of his pitches fastballs?

John Farrell was quoted in last Friday's Globe as saying there had been "an increase of personal awareness, not just in terms of the stuff that he has on a given night, but a conscious effort to not be as predictable or exclusively using his fastball as he trended toward that way last year".

Last night was his first blown save since July 28, 2009 (JoS1). It was also the second time in his career he allowed multiple home runs in a game; the first was in his major league debut on July 31, 2005.

Fatigue was probably not a factor in going only with the heater. Although Papelbon had gone 2.1 innings on Saturday -- his longest outing by innings since June 2006 -- he threw only 26 pitches, something he had done three times previously this season and 10 times last year.

Peter Abraham called Daisuke Matsuzaka's postgame press conference "bizarre".
He paused 30 seconds before answering the first question and appeared on the verge of bursting into tears. Two Japanese reporters who have followed his entire career said they had never seen anything like it.
And Dice gave this cryptic answer about why things unraveled for him last night: "There's one thing that I know for sure, but I'm not quite ready to share that at this point."

Dice threw 32 pitches in the first inning, 26 of which were fastballs. "I have a lot of different pitches. If I don't use those properly, that is going to work against me at times." So why did he throw so many fastballs? His catcher, Victor Martinez, said he didn't know why.
I'm just behind the plate trying to help him. At the end, he's the one who has the last word. He's the one who has the ball in his hand. I'm just putting suggestions. He can say yes or no.
What a mess.

I keep a Sox notebook/diary with various bits of info from each game and from the papers. For Saturday's game, there is this: "worst loss of year?" ... Not anymore.

May 17, 2010

G39: Yankees 11, Red Sox 9

Red Sox - 010 131 030 -  9 13  0
Yankees - 510 010 004 - 11 13 0
Recap: Things were very shitty.

Then they got better.

Then they got really good and there was much merriment.

Then they got very shitty again, very quickly.

The End.
Example
Daisuke Matsuzaka / Phil Hughes
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Drew, RF
Youkilis, 1B
Martinez, C
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
Hermida, LF
McDonald, CF
Dear Red Sox: The season is almost one-quarter over. It's time to get your ass in gear.

Dice had one of his best starts in a Red Sox uniform against the Blue Jays on May 11 (7-3-1-0-9, 106). More like that, please.

Hughes (5-0, 1.38 ERA) is the first Yankees pitcher with five wins and a sub 1.50 ERA through his first six starts since "Bullet" Bob Turley in 1958. Hughes faced Boston back on May 7 (7-7-2-1-7, 101). His BABIP is an unsustainably-low .223.

Jacoby Ellsbury played for the PawSox today: 1-for-3 (single, walk, run). He will play the outfield for Portland tomorrow.
Example
Today in Baseball History:

1939 - The first baseball game ever televised: Princeton's 2-1 victory over Columbia at the Baker Bowl is broadcast over W2XBS in New York City. The Times: "It is difficult to see how this sort of thing can catch the public fancy."

1945 - Every American League game is rained out for the fourth consecutive day.

1971 - Tommy McCraw of the Senators circles the bases for an inside-the-park home run when three Cleveland fielders (shortstop Jack Heidemann and outfielders Vada Pinson and John Lowenstein) collide while trying to catch his 140-foot pop-up.

1979 - On a windy day at Wrigley Field, the Phillies beat the Cubs 23-22 in 10 innings. Each starting pitcher lasts only 0.1 of an inning.

on giving up, believing, and what it means to be a fan

L-girl guest post, cross-posted on wmtc

The JoS community probably looks at the title of this post and rolls their eyes. Here she goes. Whether it makes you smile or cringe, you're expecting a pep talk, or a thrashing, or at least a lecture on fat ladies singing and 162 games.

Sorry. No can do.

If the Red Sox manage to seriously contend this season, if we make a run at the division or the wild card and make the playoffs, it will be an amazing comeback. But so many things would have to happen for that to occur – the Sox playing much better than they appear to be able to do, and more than one other team hitting a prolonged slide. It's looking highly unlikely.

So no, this post isn't about how we all must believe to the bitter end.

But all the talk of giving up – whether or not we have given up, when we will, why we won't, and so on - got me thinking about what we mean when we say we're giving up on a season. The Red Sox are going to do what they're going to do whether or not we declare ourselves still on board or done. It doesn't make a difference in terms of baseball. It only makes a difference in how we feel, and maybe how we approach the games.

* * * *

In 2007, the Red Sox were were 9 games up on July 29. (On July 5, they had an 11.5 game lead!) On August 13, the Sox's lead had been cut to 4 games, but on September 4, it was back to 7.

After that, the Yankees started closing in. First our lead dropped to 5 games on September 10. A week later, September 17, it was 3.5 games. On September 23, the lowest point of the season, the Sox still had a 1.5 game lead.

They never fell out of first place. The closest the Yankees came was 1.5 games back on September 23. But woe is us, the doomers were out in force.

More than anything, I wanted the Sox to win the division. I announced on a gamethread that I wanted to win the division more than I wanted to win the World Series, that the Wild Card wasn't good enough, not even if it (again) took us all the way.

This caused some controversy. I remember someone lecturing me about "keeping our eyes on the prize". It meant nothing to me. I'm not saying it was rational, or justified. It was just the way I felt. We were in full command of first place for almost the entire season. I didn't want to hear how "of course" the Yankees won it, how the Sox could only get in the playoffs through the back door. That division was ours and I wanted it.

Some people agreed with me. Others emphatically did not.

But I also knew we didn't have to win the division by 10 games. Or by 5 games. And in a pack as good as the American League East, the chances of winning by a wide margin are very slim. So a shrinking lead didn't matter, it was bound to happen. We didn't have to win by any certain number of games. We only had to win.

Sometime during that nail-biting September, a JoS commenter - not a regular, just a drive-by - announced that he was "throwing in the towel". I went ballistic. He was throwing in the towel and we were still in first place! Smoke was coming out of my ears. It was an epic smackdown.

Now I want to look beyond my own contempt for such behaviour and ask, What made this fan feel that way? Knowing his team was in first place, he was ready to jump ship. Why?

I suspect he couldn't stand the tension as he waited for what he imagined was an inevitable heartbreak. Whether he was conscious of it or not, he thought it was better to jump now and get it over with. Better a quick death at his own hands, then to be slowly crushed by daily torture.

Maybe that towel-throwing-in fan was performing a premature, exaggerated ritual that we all do sometimes in other contexts. We want something very badly, but we say, "I'm trying not to get my hopes up." We're trying to protect ourselves. We think, if I don't have my hopes up, it won't hurt as much to have them smashed.

But I think there are other things at work, too. Some people are very heavily invested in being right. They're after putting some kind of cosmic "I told you so" on the world. Sometimes it looks like fans would rather say "I told you so" to the more optimistic fans than see their team win.

These "I told you so" fans seem to think they're more savvy, more worldly-wise, more in-the-know. Optimism is for suckers. You naive fools can get your hopes up for a sunny day. I'll sit here scowling in my dark corner predicting rain. Then when it rains -- as it always does at some point -- you'll see that I was right.

Of course, once it rains, we'll all get wet. But some of us will have enjoyed the sunshine all that time.

In sports, like in politics, people love to make predictions. You can flip on your TV and find a dozen people being paid to sit in studios and predict what's going to happen. (In Canada the national pastime is predicting when there will be an election.) The fan who gives up when his team is still in first place is like a political pundit on a cable news show. When the team is skidding, he shouts "They're finished!" If they lose, he sneers I Told You So. If they win, no one holds him accountable for his gloomy prediction.

And some people declare they have given up, I think, because they don't want to be associated with a losing team. They think if the logo on their cap represents a winning team, this somehow reflects on them personally as winners. So if it doesn't look good for the team, better back off, rather than be tainted by a loser's logo.

Of course, for these people, the only thing that gets reflected is how superficial they are. If you're only a fan when your team is winning, you're not really a fan at all. All good teams attract pseudofans. And amazingly, the Red Sox have become one of those teams. That's a good thing.

* * * *

During the 2008 playoffs, I didn't really believe we would win. I felt like we weren't a championship team, and I had a really hard time staying optimistic - faking belief. I still watched every game, and I sweat out the seven-game ALCS with everyone else, but in my heart, I didn't believe. Allan thought I was giving up - and he wasn't too pleased. But here's the thing: I didn't give up. I kept hoping and I kept watching. I was pessimistic, but I was on board.

How many of us thought the Red Sox would come back to win the 2004 ALCS? I'd be surprised if anyone can honestly say they did. We weren't just down three games in a seven-game series. We were about to be swept. In the historical context of The Rivalry, and especially after 2003, unimaginable heartbreak was on the horizon.

But we kept watching, and we kept hoping. We were going to watch and hope until the final out. When that final out turned out to be in Game 7, after the greatest comeback the sport has ever seen, we were rewarded - for some of us, after a lifetime of heartbreak. We weren't rewarded for our belief, but for our loyalty.

That's what shows we didn't give up. Not what we believed - because what we believed didn't matter. We might have thought the Red Sox would lose the 2004 ALCS, because at some point, that seemed the only possible outcome. We didn't know the impossible was about to happen! So belief or lack of belief is not the issue. Pessimistic doomer or pollyanna optimist, we didn't give up. We kept watching. We kept hoping.

So here's what I've decided. I don't believe the Red Sox are going to make the playoffs this season. But I'm still watching and I'm still hoping.

* * * *

I mostly watch regular-season games with a relaxed, zenlike attitude. I take it as it comes. I enjoy a great win and I dislike annoying losses, but I rarely get very upset about the outcome of any given game. I like the tension and drama of close games, and I get very caught up during pennant races or in the post-season. But in general I watch baseball on an even keel. People like to say, "Of course I get upset – I'm a fan." So am I less of a fan because I don't get upset?

On the other hand, I watch almost every game. As much as possible, I organize my life around watching or listening to almost every game. During a game, I don't answer the phone, I don't wander off for something to eat. I see friends only on off nights. I don't watch movies when there's baseball on. I don't watch other sports when there's baseball on. I know not everyone does that. Does that make me more of a fan?

No, and no. There are all different ways to be a fan.

For some of us, no longer believing we have a chance doesn't really change anything. If Allan thinks the team is out of contention (I'm not saying he does, only if), he'll watch every game and only miss a game if forced to. He'll still stay up for west coast games, still not leave his chair except between innings, still keep score.

For me it probably means a little less of everything. Less watching every pitch. Less scoreboard watching. Less waking up and going immediately to the computer to check the standings. I might even miss a game here and there. I guess it's just a slight change in attitude. Loosening the grip a little. A subtle shift in priorities.

So at this point, no, I don't believe. But I haven't given up.

What about you?

May 16, 2010

G38: Tigers 5, Red Sox 1

Red Sox - 001 000 000 - 1  7  0
Tigers - 021 200 00x - 5 9 0
Lackey (7-9-5-4-4, 123) had trouble getting the third out in both the second and fourth innings.

In the second, he had a man on first and two outs, but allowed a single, walk, and single to Detroit's 7-8-9 hitters, which gave Detroit a 1-0 lead, then walked Johnny Damon to force in a second run.

Lackey got the first two outs in the fourth on only two pitches, but then Damon singled and stole second and Ramon Santiago hit his first home run of the year. Damon finished the afternoon with two singles and two walks off Lackey.

Boston scored on doubles from Jonathan Van Every and Jeremy Hermida. The Red Sox had two on with two outs in the sixth, but Mike Lowell fouled out to the catcher. With two outs in the seventh, they loaded the bases, but J.D. Drew struck out.

Tampa Bay rallied yet again and beat the Mariners 2-1, so the Red Sox are 7.5 GB. In New York, with the Yankees up 3-1, Mariano Rivera came in with the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth inning. Fruitbat walked in a run, then gave up a grand slam to Jason Kubel and the Twins won 6-3.
Example
John Lackey / Armando Galarraga
Scutaro, SS
Hermida, LF
Drew, RF
Youkilis, 1B
Ortiz, DH
Lowell, 3B
Varitek, C
Hall, 2B
Van Every, CF

May 15, 2010

G37: Tigers 7, Red Sox 6 (12)

Red Sox - 003 120 000 000 - 6  9  0
Tigers - 001 003 020 001 - 7 10 1
Ramon Ramirez walked two of the three batters he faced in the 12th inning. The second one -- a four-pitch pass to Ramon Santiago -- forced in the winning run.

There were more walks in the game (20) than hits (19). Detroit pitchers handed out 12 passes, including seven from Willis (3.1-4-4-7-5, 86). Kevin Youkilis walked five times for the first time in his career; he reached on an error in his other plate appearance.

The Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays all won earlier in the day.
Example
Jon Lester / Dontrelle Willis
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
Drew, RF
Hall, LF
McDonald, CF
The Red Sox are 15-8 since April 20. Only the Padres (15-7) have a better record over the last 25 days.

May 14, 2010

G36: Red Sox 7, Tigers 2

Red Sox - 500 100 001 - 7 10  1
Tigers - 100 000 010 - 2 5 0
Marco Scutaro singled to start the game and Dustin Pedroia homered to left. After an out, Kevin Youkilis walked, J.D. Drew singled, and David Ortiz crushed a 450-foot three-run bomb to right center.

Ortiz led off the fourth with a solo home run to right. He struck out in last two at-bats.

Buchholz had a rough first inning (two walks and a single), but beginning with the third out in that inning, he retired 15 of 18 batters through the sixth. He walked two in the seventh and was pulled.

Bill Hall hit a pinch-hit dong in the ninth.

The Rays lost to Seattle 4-3, so Boston is again 5.5 GB. Tampa's magic number for eliminating us holds steady at 122. ... The Yankees beat the Twins 8-4.
Example
Clay Buchholz / Max Scherzer
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Drew, RF
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
Hermida, LF
McDonald, CF
Scherzer had a nice 2.62 ERA after four starts, but he has been horrible his last three times out: 13 innings, 27 hits, 21 runs, and an opponents OPS of 1.151. He began his career in Arizona in 2008, so he has never faced the Red Sox. Only Jeremy Hermida (1-for-3) and Bill Hall (2-for-3) have played against him.

Here is what current Tigers have done against Buchholz.

Tim Britton, MLB.com:
It's tough to argue against the idea that [Miguel] Cabrera has been the best hitter in the American League so far this season. He leads the league in average and RBIs and is second in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Cabrera is also kicking everyone's ass in WPA, but Justin Morneau does have a higher OPS and more Runs Created.

B-Ref Stuff: Mat Latos nearly pitched a perfect game against the Giants. It was the Padres' eighth shutout of the season. ... The most productive spot in the Giants' order this year? #8?!? (Boston's #8 spot is 4th best.)

Jays Radio Gaffe On Drew Swing

I was watching Wednesday's afternoon game on mute and Laura had the Jays radio broadcast on in the kitchen. (I meant to post this earlier, but kept forgetting.)

Jerry Howarth is in his 30th season as the team's play-by-play guy. He's got a great voice and his work is solid. But on Wednesday, he was seeing things that were not there.

The TV was lagging behind the radio by about five seconds, so in the fourth inning, when I heard him say that J.D. Drew swung and missed and almost fell down, and was trying to keep his balance, I was curious to see it "live", since Drew does not often take unhinged cuts. (Is it still live if I have already heard a description of it on the radio?)

In came Shaun Marcum's 0-1 pitch and Drew swung and missed. And .... nothing. No huge Reggie Jackson corkscrew swing, no loss of balance, no stumble. At all. Just a normal Drew swing and miss, like we have all seen dozens of times.

Later on, Howarth said Jeremy Hermida's fly ball was hit to right-center, but Vernon Wells caught it in straightaway center (or maybe a step or two towards right). That's a minor gaffe, but the Drew call was bizarre.

Also: I noted that the out-of-town-score-updater guy made a fuss that the Yankees game was over in only 2:15. His "Are you guys sitting down...?" comment seemed like overkill, but he was right to be surprised. The Yankees have played only two games (of at least nine innings) in under 2:15 since May 2005, and only four since the 2003 All-Star Break:
June 6, 2004   - 2:12
April 29, 2005 - 2:08
August 8, 2008 - 2:14
April 22, 2010 - 2:07

May 13, 2010

NPR: 4 Exile Bonus Tracks Posted

Woo-hoo!
Plundered My Soul (4:00)
Dancing In The Light (4:24)
So Divine (Aladdin Story) (4:34)
Loving Cup (Alternate Version) (5:26)
Despite my reservations, this is exciting! The ending of this alternate Loving Cup makes me think it's a different take from the other bootlegged versions. Dancing In The Light is incredibly infectious. ... Of course, the vocals are too damn high on everything.

Exile on Main Street: Pussy Galore / Phish

In the summer of 1986, Pussy Galore recorded a version of Exile on Main Street. The three-day recording
was done as a sort of gag response to Sonic Youth's often-stated intent to cover the Beatles' White Album. [Guitarist] Neil [Hagerty] knew the Stones' "Exile" well and was given the task of interpreting the record and teaching it to the rest of us. Neil would present a song to the band, we would play it a few times, then lay it down. In this manner the entire album was recorded in sequence. By side three everyone had gotten into the swing of it and we were not yet sick of the process. Recorded with the "Pussy Galore Mobile Unit," a borrowed cassette 4-track, in the PG practice space, NYC ...
Only 550 cassette copies of the extremely lo-fi, trashy, hissy mess were made. I bought #426 at See Hear on the Lower East Side soon after moving to Brooklyn. Listen! Do not expect anything even approaching decent sound quality; this tape makes the original Exile (or Metal Machine Music, for that matter) sound like a mint Steely Dan album.
Example
Phish played Exile on Main Street from start to finish during a Halloween concert last year at Festival 8 in Indio, California. Guitarist-singer Trey Anastasio:
The first thing I did was sit down and start learning, note for note, the two guitar players' licks. I really dug in. And lo and behold, there are incredible, distinct guitar lines. It's played with an attitude — that rock & roll attitude. But everybody's playing sloppy together. Sit down someday and try to play along with those drums. It's incredibly intricate. It comes off as sloppy, but it's not sloppy at all.
Also included are scans of the eight-page concert program. Phish lacks the raunch to do Exile's rockers justice, but the soulful, gospel-tinged songs are quite good. Listen (I and II)!
Example
Rocks Off
Rip This Joint
Shake Your Hips
Casino Boogie
Tumbling Dice
Sweet Virginia
Torn And Frayed
Sweet Black Angel
Loving Cup
Happy
Turd On The Run
Ventilator Blues
I Just Want To See His Face
Let It Loose
All Down The Line
Stop Breaking Down
Shine A Light
Soul Survivor