G16: Athletics 5, Red Sox 0

Red Sox   - 000 000 000 - 0  5  1
Athletics - 100 000 04x - 5  8  1

Lackey (6-4-1-1-3, 93) pitched very well, but Anderson (8-4-0-1-8, 109) completely shut down the Red Sox. Hideki Okajima, in his 2011 debut, gave up three runs in the eighth (and allowed an inherited runner to score) as Oakland padded its lead.

Boston had only two base runners in the first seven innings; Adrian Gonzalez singled with two outs in the first and he reached first on Anderson's throwing error in the seventh.

In the eighth, David Ortiz singled and Jacoby Ellsbury pinch-ran. Anderson fell behind Mike Cameron 3-0, but battled back to strike him out on a check swing; Ellsbury was running on the full count pitch and beat Kurt Suzuki's throw, but was called out because Cameron stepped in front of Suzuki as the catcher was throwing to second base. With two outs and no one on, Carl Crawford beat out an infield single and Jarrod Saltalamacchia lined a hit to left, but Anderson struck out Darnell McDonald on three pitches to end the threat.

Down by five with one out in the ninth, Dustin Pedroia walked and Gonzalez singled. But Youkilis flied to left and Ellsbury popped to shortstop.

Jed Lowrie went 0-for-4, snapping his seven-game hitting streak.

John Lackey / Brett Anderson

After three consecutive (nearly) stress-free wins over the Blue Jays -- 4-1, 8-1, 9-1 -- the Red Sox are in Oakland for the start of a nine-game road trip that will include stops in Anaheim and Baltimore.

Lefty Anderson has a 2.29 ERA in three starts (19.2 innings), but he can't actually be much good, because his record is 0-1. ... Lackey has been more successful, as he is 1-1. Pay no attention to his 15.58 ERA and .395 opponents batting average; Lackey "pitches to the score" and "knows how to win".

The Red Sox are 0-6 on the road this year, the only major league team with no road victories. They are also 0-3 in one-run games, one of only two teams with no one-run wins (the Orioles are 0-1).

Gordon Edes shares "an absolutely terrifying stat" about Lackey:

He has given up at least six extra-base hits in each of his first two starts, and if that happens again Tuesday night, he will be only the second pitcher in 90 years to do that three times in a row. Danny Graves did it in 2003, and he went 1-13.

Graves (who went 4-15, not 1-13, in 2003*):
0525 vs FLA: 4 doubles, 1 triple, 2 home runs (and 4 singles)
0531 vs FLA: 4 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run (and 3 singles)
0605 vs NYY: 5 doubles, 1 home run (and 2 singles)

Lackey:
0402 vs TEX: 3 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs (and 3 singles)
0408 vs NYY: 4 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run (and 1 single)

* In comments, Jere notes that Graves went 1-13 from May 25 to the end of the season.

AL East: White Sox/Rays at 6:30 PM; and Twins/Orioles and Yankees/Blue Jays at 7 PM.

THT's Chris Jaffe lists the greatest games by Hall of Famers since 1950, according to WPA. In George Brett's game of May 28, 1979, he almost hit for the cycle in extra innings (single in the 10th, double in the 14th, game-winning home run in the 16th)! Brett did hit for the cycle in the game, however; he had a triple back in the third inning.

Bill Petti, Beyond the Box Score, on the Yankees:

When you look at how they've scored their runs and combine that with how their pitchers have performed it's hard to step back and say objectively that this team is among the elite teams in baseball.

Crawford And Sox Take Hot Streak to Oakland

Carl Crawford snapped an 0-for-15 skid with his sixth inning double off the Wall yesterday. Crawford also hit the ball well in his at-bats both before and after the double, flying to the warning track in left and nearly beating out a hard ground ball that second baseman John McDonald fielded bare-handed.

That [double] definitely will make the six hours a little easier to deal with. ... Every day, I feel like I'm about to break out of it, but it doesn't happen as fast as I want. I feel like it's going to get better, though.

SoSH's Mark Brown posted some info showing that Crawford has had a slow start in four of the last six seasons, though 2011 has been especially bad.

Daisuke Matsuzaka's gem was the first game since Jon Lester's no-hitter (May 19, 2008) in which a Boston starter went 7+ innings and allowed two or fewer base runners. ... Terry Francona went to the bullpen even though Dice had thrown only 89 pitches because of his low pitch count (47) in his previous start.

Kevin Youkilis:

The one thing that was a little shocking is before the game he got booed. It's funny how he came off the field and everyone was cheering. It's kind of foot-in-the-mouth right there.

J.D. Drew began the Red Sox's first inning with a triple. According to the Herald's Ian Rapoport: "The last time the Sox had a triple to lead off the game, it was by Drew last June 27." While Drew did triple in that game, the hit came in the sixth inning and Drew was in the sixth spot in the lineup. (I believe Rapoport is referring to Boston's game on June 29, 2009.)

Marco Scutaro accepts, the likelihood of increased bench time.

It's special being on a winning team. Being on a losing team is no fun at all. Right now, [Terry Francona] is just trying to put the best guys out there to win games. ... You don't have to [talk to the manager] to understand what's going on.

Matt Albers is scheduled to make a second rehab appearance (right latissimus strain) for Pawtucket tonight and then rejoin the Red Sox, possible in Anaheim on Thursday.

In the wake of Yankee reliever Pedro Feliciano suffering a (likely) season-ending tear in his shoulder, Brian Cashman admitted last Thursday that he often went behind Joe Torre's back to try and prevent his relief pitchers from being overused and put at a greater risk for injury.

Cashman said that Torre or his pitching coach would ask relievers if they felt good to pitch that day, and if the pitcher said yes, then he was available. Cashman did not endorse this approach:

You have to understand these players are competitors. They're never going to say no. ... I met with [Scott] Proctor and said, "You better stop telling the manager this because the way he manages" - I'm not criticizing Joe, that's just the way he is - "he wants an honest answer. Just tell him no." ...

[I told Joe that you] have to have the knowledge enough to know that you've got to back off this guy, because he won't be honest with you, he'll lie to you even if he's dragging knuckles. So I met with those individual players and said, "You are hurting your career." ...

If you want to confirm to see I'm full of it, you can check with our former manager, you can check with our former pitching coach, you can check with those players, I don't really care. That's what happened.

Reached by text message that same day, Torre stated: "No comment."

Torre did talk about Scott Proctor in 2009, however. In October 2008, after pitching for Torre in Los Angeles, Proctor had right elbow surgery, a "cleanup procedure". In spring training with the Marlins the following year, he was still in pain -- and in May, he had Tommy John surgery after ligament fraying was discovered. Torre was no longer managing Proctor at that time, and he implied Proctor was a moron for pitching so much: "There's playing hurt, and then there's playing stupid." Classy statement, from the guy who used Proctor for 156.2 innings in less than two seasons and turned Proctor's last name into a verb, meaning to abuse the holy hell out of a pitcher's arm.

G15: Red Sox 9, Blue Jays 1

Blue Jays - 000 000 001 - 1  2  0
Red Sox   - 201 023 10x - 9 13  0

Matsuzaka (7-1-0-1-3, 89) followed perhaps the worst outing of his career with one of his very best. He allowed only two base runners, a single with two outs in the first and a walk with two outs in the second. In each case, the next batter ended the inning.

And Jed Lowrie continued his recent assault on American League pitchers, going 4-for-5, with three singles, a home run, two runs scored, and four RBI. It was the second four-hit game of his career. Over his last seven games (10 days), Lowrie is batting .625 (15-for-24) and slugging .958.

Going down the box score:

J.D. Drew: triple, single, walk, run

Dustin Pedroia: single, two walks, run

Adrian Gonzalez: double, run

Kevin Youkilis: double, home run, two RBI, two runs

David Ortiz: single, two walks, run

Carl Crawford: double, RBI

Jacoby Ellsbury: home run (#4)

Matsuzaka had thrown only 89 pitches through seven innings and had mowed down the last 16 Jays (on only 54 pitches), but Francona went to the pen anyway. Alfredo Aceves kept the ball in the infield in a perfect eighth and Tim Wakefield gave up a one-out home run to Yunel Escobar that barely cleared the Wall (it actually hit a fan's glove, but looked like it would have landed over the line).

The Red Sox head to Oakland tonight with a 5-10 record, 4.5 GB the idle Yankees -- and only 1.5 games out of second place in the East.

Ricky Romero / Daisuke Matsuzaka

Dice was cringingly bad in his last start, allowing eight hits, two walks and seven runs in 2+ innings (47 pitches). It was his shortest outing and fewest pitches thrown since April 14, 2009.

Terry Francona:

[W]hen we got into the second, everything went to the middle of the plate. ... seven balls hit right on the barrel. We love when guys throw strikes, but there were some balls that were middle-middle for the first seven hitters.

As Matsuzaka made the lonely walk back to the Fenway dugout after being yanked in the third, he was loudly booed.

Nobody really wants to be booed by the fans. The only way I can change this is to show good results in front of them. ... I watched a video after the game and I noticed a clear difference between when I pitch well and bad. There's something to fix.

Dice gets a chance to redeem himself (somewhat) in the annual Patriots Day game, as the Red Sox hope to take three of four from Toronto before heading west to Oakland.

Romero (1.66 ERA) threw a complete game last Tuesday in a 3-2 loss to Seattle. Romero has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his three starts this year.

AL East: White Sox/Rays (6:30 PM); Twins/Orioles (7 PM); Yankees off (at Blue Jays Tuesday/Wednesday)

G14: Red Sox 8, Blue Jays 1

Blue Jays - 010 000 000 - 1  7  2
Red Sox   - 040 002 02x - 8  8  1

Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jacoby Ellsbury -- the #8 and #9 hitters in the order -- each drove in three runs, as Boston cruised to its second straight victory. After an 0-6 start, the Red Sox have gone 4-4.

Four straight hits in the second -- singles by Jed Lowrie, J.D. Drew, and Salty, and a three-run bomb to right field from Ellsbury (his 3rd homer of the season) -- quickly erased Toronto's lead and gave Lester (6-6-1-3-5, 110) a decent cushion to work with.

Salty's second single of the afternoon drove in two runs in the sixth. In addition to his hit in the second, Lowrie also reached base twice on errors. His line drive past first baseman Adam Lind in the eighth scored the Sox's final two runs; it was ruled a two-base error.

Jesse Litsch / Jon Lester

SoSH has a "Dear Red Sox" thread. Some of the notes to the team:

Please lose less often than every game.

It is not necessary or proper to honor Earth Day by turning the lights out on the 2011 season.

Giving the other teams in the AL East a 10 game head start may "sound" like a good idea in theory, but it's not actually one.

Please turn your 3rd one game winning streak of the season into a two game winning streak. Is it really that fucking hard to win two in a row!!! Thanks for listen.

AL East: Orioles/Cleveland (1 PM); Twins/Rays (1:30 PM); Rangers/Yankees (8 PM).

G13: Red Sox 4, Blue Jays 1

Blue Jays - 010 000 000 - 1  5  0
Red Sox   - 220 000 00x - 4  9  0

Beckett was dominating for the second straight start (7-3-1-2-9, 101), lowering his ERA to 1.80, and leadoff hitter Jed Lowrie sparked the offense with three hits, including a two-run home run.

Beckett has allowed only 10 hits and seven walks in 20 innings, an 0.850 WHIP. Looking at the AL leaders, he is in or near the Top 5 in WHIP, H/9, strikeouts, and K/9.

The first five Boston batters reached base in the first inning, but Reyes, down 2-0 and working with no outs and the bases loaded, got two strikeouts and a grounder to avoid further damage. Jacoby Ellsbury walked to start the second and Lowrie -- now batting .500 this year (11-for-22) -- homered to left.

Toronto never had more than one runner on base at any time. Indeed, only in the second inning, when Aaron Hill doubled and Travis Snider singled him home, did they have more than one base runner in any inning.

Adrian Gonzalez singled and walked twice, and made several nice plays at first base. Mike Cameron, who began the day hitting .091, had two hits in four trips. David Ortiz walked three times, and Ellsbury walked twice, stole a base, and was hit by a pitch.

The Yankees (8-5) beat the Rangers 5-2, so the Red Sox (3-10) remain 5 GB.

Picture from the great Natalie Dee website.

Jo-Jo Reyes / Josh Beckett

AL East: Rangers/Yankees and Orioles/Cleveland at 1 PM; Twins/Rays at 4 PM.

Yankees Hit Into Six Double Plays, Tying AL Record

The Yankees set a franchise record last night by grounding into six double plays. Texas turned the twin-killings in the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, and 8th innings.

Baseball Reference reports that major league record for double plays in a nine-inning game is seven, set by the Giants in a 3-1 loss to Houston on May 4, 1969 (every inning but the 2nd and 6th).

BRef also reports that the Yankees are the 14th team since 1919 to hit into at least six double plays in a nine-inning game, but when I ran the same search, two additional games showed up, making New York the 16th team. If you include extra-inning games, there are now 24 teams who have hit into at least six DP in one game since 1919. The Giants are still the only team to hit into seven.

The Red Sox are on that nine-inning list three times, all as the batting team: May 1, 1966 (the first post-1919 game), April 13, 1984, and July 18, 1990. Boston also hit into six DP in a 16-inning game on April 27, 1989.

The teams hitting into at least six double plays had a combined 7-9 record; Boston won the 1990 game.

In April 2009, the Royals hit into six DP against Cleveland and, only 10 days later, turned six double plays against the Blue Jays.

G12: Blue Jays 7, Red Sox 6

Blue Jays - 000 021 400 - 7  8  2
Red Sox   - 003 000 030 - 6  5  0

The Red Sox took an early lead on home runs from Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis and then rallied in the eighth to set the stage for a possible comeback in the ninth. But Jon Rauch quickly retired the top of the order on only 10 pitches, giving Boston its 10th loss in 12 games.

Buchholz (5-3-3-5-3, 94) started the evening by walking two of the first three batters, but after a lull while the umpires reviewed a possible home run down around the Pesky Pole by Adam Lind (it was ruled a foul ball), he settled down, retiring 12 of the next 13 batters.

Toronto's first four runs were scored by guys who had walked. Buchholz walked the Jays' #8 and #9 hitters in the fifth and they scored on Corey Patterson's triple. Another HH BB scored on Travis Snider's double off Felix Doubront.

After walking the leadoff hitter in the seventh, Bobby Jenks -- who had not allowed a hit all season (14 batters over four innings) -- allowed singles to four of the next five Jays to put Boston in a 7-3 hole.

In the bottom of the eighth, lefty Marc Rzepczynski retired Adrian Gonzalez, but walked Youkilis and David Ortiz. After he struck out J.D. Drew, he wild-pitched the runners to second and third. With two outs, Jed Lowrie pinch-hit for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and singled one run home on a grounder behind the bag at third. Casey Janssen came in to face Marco Scutaro and Scutaro banged a double off the Wall for two more runs. With the tying run at second, Jacoby Ellsbury ended the inning with a first-pitch fly out to right.

In the ninth, Carl Crawford (0-for-5) struck out on three pitches, and was booed by the remaining fans. Pedroia grounded to short and Gonzalez grounded to first.

Brett Cecil / Clay Buchholz

First of four games against John Farrell's Blue Jays, including Monday's Patriots Day 11 AM start.

There is not much Terry Francona can do to spark the Red Sox, but he could -- and should -- make Jed Lowrie the starting shortstop. Repeating what I posted two days ago:

          PA   AVG   OBP   SLG    OPS
Lowrie    18  .438  .500  .563  1.063
Scutaro   33  .172  .273  .207   .480

Lowrie 194 OPS+ would be 7th in the AL if he had enough qualifying plate appearances. Lowrie also had the third-best OPS (.907) on the team last year (in 197 PA).

AL East:

Yankees    7   4   ---
Orioles    6   5   1.0
Blue Jays  6   6   1.5
Rays       4   8   3.5
Red Sox    2   9   5.0

7 PM: Rangers/Yankees; Orioles/Cleveland; Twins/Rays

Gonzalez Contract Extension (7/154) To Be Anounced Today

Sean McAdam, CSNNE:

What had been rumored for months will be made official Friday -- the Red Sox and Adrian Gonzalez, according to sources, have agreed to a seven-year, $154 million contract extension.

A news conference to announce the deal is expected Friday afternoon. ...

The contract includes a $6 million signing bonus and the following yearly salaries:

2012 - $21 million
2013 - $21 million
2014 - $21 million
2015 - $21 million
2016 - $21 million
2017 - $21.5 million
2018 - $21.5 million

Range Of 2011 Wins Through Random Chance: 68 To 117

I enjoy the pre-season simulations/projections that SG runs over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, and I have linked to them in recent years.

He also ran the rest of the season depending on the different scenarios of the outcome of the recent series against the Yankees. After Boston won two of the three games, the projections were a dead heat:

           W      L
Red Sox   91.4   70.6
Yankees   91.3   70.7

These simulations always remind me of Bill James's "2,000 Years of Willie Mays", which I wrote about seven (!?!) years ago. James explains that a player could hit .330 one year and .260 the next (with a corresponding drop in home runs and RBI), and while media and fans would concoct all sorts of possible reasons for the slump, it could have happened simply because of bad luck. I have always been fascinated by this stuff.

With the Red Sox off to such a dismal start, I wondered what the worst seasons were of the thousands that SG ran. How many games did they win in a year in which all the breaks went against them? How many did they win when everything went right?

SG sent me some information from the 5,000 seasons he ran through Diamond Mind -- and through nothing but random chance, Boston's win totals ranged from 117 to 68!

The 2011 Simulated Red Sox finished at or under .500 in 100 of the 5,000 seasons (2%).

68-94 -  1 season
72-90 -  2 seasons
73-89 -  1 season
74-88 -  1 season
76-86 -  7 seasons
77-85 -  8 seasons
78-84 - 14 seasons
79-83 - 12 seasons 
80-82 - 17 seasons 
81-81 - 37 seasons

They won 100+ games in 1,057 seasons (21.1%). The best seasons:

117-45 -  1 season
114-48 -  5 seasons
113-49 -  2 seasons
112-50 - 11 seasons
111-51 - 12 seasons
110-52 - 14 seasons

The Yankees' best seasons were 114 wins (once), 113 (three times) and 112 (three times). Their lowest win total was 65. They were .500 and below in 250 of 5,000 (5%) seasons and they won 100+ games in 677 seasons (13.5%).

The average season for both teams:

           W      L
Red Sox  94.4   67.6
Yankees  92.4   69.6

Ortiz: Players Are Frustrated And Worried

David Ortiz won't lie: The Red Sox are worried.

Things are just not coming the way we expected, but right now, everybody's trying to change things around. ... I know that it's early in the season, but it's the Red Sox, man. I look at it, and it's frustrating. We need to take over and do our thing. Our coaches, our front office, they did what they're supposed to do. Now it's up to us ... Over time, things are going to get better because it can't get no worse. The only choice we have is to get better, right?

Jon Lester does not think the team is pressing:

[I]f we had a younger team I'd probably say "yeah". We have plenty of guys that I'm sure at some point in their career they've been in something like this or been in a slump like they're in right now or not throwing the ball like they should.

Jed Lowrie:

I've had a few years in big leagues, and a few in minor leagues as well. If I've learned anything, you learn that discipline, that constant approach of no matter what's going on through time. ... to maintain that level head through all the BS ... not getting down when times are bad and not getting too high when things are good.

Even if the players are pressing -- trying to hit six-run homers or throw the ball 125 mph -- at some point, they will pass through that stage, say "fuck this", and give up and stop caring (in a good way), and simply play for the hell of it. And that's when the hits and runs and wins will come.

Herald: Lackey Will Be Skipped In Rotation

Scott Lauber, Herald:

John Lackey will be skipped in rotation. He'll pitch Tuesday in Oakland. Buchholz, Beckett, Lester, Dice-K vs. Jays.

WEEI concurs.

Keep everyone on their normal schedule (already one day longer than usual because of Thursday's off-day) and avoid the guy with the 15.58 ERA, who has allowed an average of 2.5 baserunners per inning in his two starts? It's a win-win!

Lackey's start in Oakland is the first game of a nine-game road trip that includes visits to the Angels and Orioles.

G12: Rays at Red Sox, PPD

Globe, 3:11 PM: The game has been rained out.

Rays    - 
Red Sox - 

James Shields / John Lackey

Peter Gammons, Mut & Merloni (WEEI):

I think everyone is completely shocked. I don't get a sense of anger as much as, "What in the world is going on here?" I liken it to what's going through Albert Pujols' mind when he's hitting about .170 right now [.200/.260/.267], going, "This is impossible." A lot of weird things have happened.

Gammons also thought the Red Sox might attempt to call off tonight's game because of the expected rain, as well as for a day off. "A couple of days of breathers wouldn't be a bad thing at this point."

However, the opposite point -- sitting around and stewing for an extra 24 hours (off day on Thursday) about getting off to the worst start in franchise history* before playing again probably isn't a good idea, either -- is equally valid.

* Worst start after 11 games, that is, tied with 1925, 1927, and 1996.

AL East: Blue Jays/Mariners, 3:30 PM; Orioles/Yankees, 7 PM

What Should The Red Sox Do? Nothing.

And here it is ... your Make A Bee-Line To The Liquor Cabinet Thought Of The Day:

27 of the other 29 major league teams have won at least twice as many games as the Red Sox (2-9).

Of the 30 MLB teams, Boston is 23rd in AVG, 16th in OBP, 24th in SLG, 23rd in Runs Scored Per Game, 30th in ERA, 30th in Runs Allowed Per Game, and 26th in WHIP.*

* The Yankees (5-4) are far more close to the Red Sox in most of these categories than i would have thought:

          AVG   OBP   SLG   RS/G  RA/G  ERA   WHIP
Boston    23rd  16th  24th  23th  30th  30th  26th
New York  21st  22nd   3rd   6th  25th  24th  25th

While the Red Sox are getting on base more often than the Yankees, New York is scoring more runs, thanks in part to a much higher slugging percentage. They have hit 18 home runs; Boston has hit seven. I assumed that the Yankees' BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) would be higher, but it's not: .242 to Boston's .262; however, home runs are not considered balls in play). Thinking of my LOB post yesterday, while the Red Sox have left an average of 7.9 men on base per game this year, the Yankees' average is only 5.8. Whether that's a bit of luck that may change or whether the tight grouping of averages in my post of roughly eight LOB per game is a coincidence, I don't know.

So. What can the team do? What should the front office do?

For the most part, nothing. Most of the team is slumping and there are no obvious places on the roster where the team could fix an obvious mistake with a easily obtained solution. I was going to go into some depth about how the team is "stuck" with what it's got and concentrate on that day's game and things will even out, but TheYellowDart5 at SoSH did it more succinctly than I would have:

How much can be done, though? I mean, look at the problems.

Lackey and Matsuzaka have been awful so far, but they both have long-term deals and can't/won't be dumped. Besides, the internal options to replace them are Wakefield, Aceves and Doubront. Not exactly an inspiring trio.

Saltalamacchia isn't hitting and his defense has been weak. But the only backup option is Varitek, who is hitting even worse and couldn't throw out any poster on this site. There are no decent Triple-A options, and I imagine there's nothing much out there on the market.

Crawford and Youkilis aren't hitting. Well, they will eventually, and sitting them on the bench doesn't help them and forces the Red Sox to play inferior talent in their place.

Ellsbury has been miserable. But who replaces him? McDonald is no better, Cameron looks ancient, and the Triple-A options (Reddick and Kalish) need more time in the Minors. And the CF market isn't that great either.

The only venue in which there exists a good, in-house replacement options is SS, and even then, I doubt Francona's going to anoint Lowrie the starter just yet. But one position change isn't going to turn around what ails this team.

Sadly enough, Francona and the Sox just need to ride this out. There aren't better options in Triple-A or on the bench.

Playing Lowrie -- who turns 27 on Sunday -- over Scutaro was also suggested by John Tomase in today's Herald.

          PA   AVG   OBP   SLG    OPS
Lowrie    18  .438  .500  .563  1.063
Scutaro   33  .172  .273  .207   .480

SSS and all that, but man ...

Lowrie's line-drive percentage this year is roughly 30% (BRef has 27% and Fangraphs has 33% (easily tops on the team)); BRef gives the MLB average as 19%. In limited time last year (roughly 200 PA), Lowrie had a .907 OPS, better than everyone on the team except Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Beltre.

Francona has been giving Lowrie more playing time. Lowrie has started two of the last four games and has reached base in six of his last nine plate appearances.

Other stuff:

Much has been made of the team's failure to hit with runners at third and/or second (RATS): 20-for-104, .192. Part of that can be chalked up to seven of the nine starters have a BABIP under the league average:

Lowrie         .467
Pedroia        .424
Drew           .421
AL Average     .278
Gonzalez       .270
Saltalamacchia .267
Youkilis       .261
Ortiz          .257
Ellsbury       .185
Scutaro        .185
Crawford       .184
Varitek        .125
Cameron        .111
McDonald       .000

The top three guys will see their average drop, and the bad luck of the guys at the bottom will improve.

The Red Sox hit like All-Stars with a man on first, but get him to second, and the bats go cold:

      AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
1--  .342  .422  .575  .997
12-  .120  .214  .120  .334
-2-  .130  .167  .130  .297

Similarly, although the team is hitting better with men on base than with the bases empty, they are making lots of outs with RATS:

            AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
No One On  .207  .317  .319  .636
Men On     .254  .332  .379  .710
W/RATS     .192  .267  .240  .508

Red Sox batters leading off an inning are hitting only .200/.299/.318.

A chart posted at SoSH shows that while the Red Sox are 4th in the AL with 117 PA with RATS, their OPS of .508 is the league's worst. Also, 15 of their 20 hits with RATS are singles; the other five are doubles. By contrast, the Yankees have had only 73 PA with RATS (2nd fewest in the AL), but are OPSing .919, with 11 of their 15 hits for extra bases (6 doubles, 5 home runs).

Daisuke Matsuzaka will make his next start, as usual - Sunday afternoon at Fenway Park against the Blue Jays - and Terry Francona said that trading, demoting or releasing a player based on one game (or a handful of games) is not smart*.

It was a horrendous second inning. If we do things like that, we'll set ourselves up for some really bad mistakes. It was tough to watch, but if you make decisions based on emotion after bad starts, we wouldn't have a team left.

* - George Steinbrenner often wildly overreacted to a player making a game-losing error, failing to get a clutch hit, or getting shelled on the mound. And he became a laughingstock because of it. I'm glad the Red Sox do not run their club like a petulant 14-year-old or according to the whims of talk radio.

G11: Rays 3, Red Sox 2

Rays    - 000 030 000 - 3  8  0
Red Sox - 001 001 000 - 2  5  0

Five straight Rays batters reached base in the fifth inning, marring Lester's (7-7-3-2-8, 109) night and giving Price (7.2-5-2-2-3, 116) and the Tampa pen enough of a lead to hold off the Red Sox. Boston, now 2-9, dropped into last place in the East, 5 GB the Orioles, who were rained out in New York.

With one out in the fifth and Boston up 1-0 (thanks to a Darnell McDonald solo shot), Lester surrendered singles to the bottom three hitters in the Rays lineup: Kelly Shoppach, Dan Johnson, and Elliot Johnson. Sam Fuld was safe on a fielder's choice (Adrian Gonzalez grabbed a dribbler on the first base line and threw home, but Shoppach was safe) and the game was tied. Johnny Damon singled to center and two more runs scored.

Boston got one run back in the sixth when Dustin Pedroia led off with a double and scored on Jed Lowrie's double (his second of the game) with outs. Mike Cameron grounded out to third to end the inning.

In the eighth, Pedroia walked with one out and Kevin Youkilis was hit by a pitch with two outs, but Lowrie flew out to left-center. Boston sent three pinch-hitters to the plate against Kyle Farnsworth in the ninth: Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D. Drew struck out, and David Ortiz flew out to right.

Dept. of Strange Small Sample Size Statements: Jerry Remy mentioned four-game hitting streaks three times in the first four innings. In the first inning, he said Damon had a four-game hitting streak coming into the game. In the third, Fuld singled and Remy announced that he now had a four-game hitting streak. When Youkilis singled in the fourth, Remy said, "Now a four-game hitting streak for Youkilis, it's starting to come together." ... In the first inning, Don Orsillo made a note of Pedroia's high batting average (.563) at Fenway Park this season. Pedroia and the Red Sox had played four games at home.

David Price / Jon Lester

Last week, we heard a lot of statements like "no 0-4 team has ever won a pennant" (and I posted many of them here)*, but shouldn't we be looking at games behind in the standings rather than a team's won-loss record?

* And Peter Abraham has some more today:

ACTA Sports sent ... examined the first 10 games played by all teams from 2002-10. There were 39 teams that went 0-3 [typo?] their first 10 games.

Of those 39 teams, only one team won 90 games (the 2002 Angels) and only two others (the 2006 Padres and the 2007 Phillies) made the playoffs.

Here's the good news: The 2002 Angels won 99 games and the World Series after a 3-7 start. They also had John Lackey.

The Red Sox (4.5 GB) are trying to win the AL East (or the wild card). So while 2-8 is a very bad won-loss record (32-130 over an entire season, which would be the worst record in AL history), it should be looked at in context of the division's other teams. Rather than asking how many 2-8 teams have made the playoffs in baseball history -- because teams from 1905 or 1952 or 2008 have nothing to do with the 2011 Red Sox, we should be asking:

Can the 2011 Red Sox play at least 5 games better than their rivals over the next 152 games?

I say they can, especially when two of the three teams above them are the Orioles and Blue Jays.
Tonight: Orioles/Yankees (7 PM) and Blue Jays/Mariners (10 PM). Last night, the Mariners trailed 7-0 during the seventh-inning stretch, but rallied to win 8-7, thanks in part to three consecutive bases-loaded walks in the eighth.

Is Eight LOB Per Game "Astounding"?

In his pre-game notes, Peter Abraham stated that the Red Sox

have left an astounding 81 runners on base in 10 games.

Is an average of 8 LOB per game really "astounding"?

Here are the number of games in each of the last five seasons in which the Red Sox left eight or more men on base:

2006: 84 of 162 (51.9%)
2007: 93 of 162 (57.4%)
2008: 86 of 162 (53.1%)
2009: 77 of 162 (47.5%)
2010: 77 of 162 (47.5%)
     417 of 810 (51.5%)

If something happens roughly every other game, I do not think it can be described as "astounding".

What about the average number of men left on base per game?

2006: 8.0
2007: 8.0
2008: 7.8
2009: 7.5
2010: 7.4

It's interesting that the Red Sox have been steadily leaving fewer men on base per game for the last five seasons. But more importantly, leaving eight men on base per game is not astounding. In fact, for the Red Sox over the last half-decade, it's almost average (literally).

Even when Boston led all MLB teams in runs scored for three straight seasons -- 2003-05 -- they still left roughly eight men on base in every game.

2003: 961 runs (54 more than the #2 MLB team); averaged 7.6 LOB per game

2004: 949 runs (52 more than the #2 MLB team); averaged 7.8 LOB per game

2005: 910 runs (24 more then the #2 MLB team); averaged 7.7 LOB per game

Four other high-scoring teams:

2007 Yankees
Led MLB with 968 runs
82 games with 8+ LOB - averaged 7.6 LOB per game

1999 Cleveland
Led MLB with 1,009 runs
84 games with 8+ LOB - averaged 7.5 LOB per game

1950 Red Sox
Led MLB with 1,027 runs
86 games (of 154) with 8+ LOB - averaged 8.3 LOB per game

1931 Yankees
All-time record of 1,067 runs
80 games (of 155) with 8+ LOB - averaged 7.9 per game

Groovin'

Terry Francona:

Everything went to the middle of the plate. ... seven balls hit right on the barrel. We love when guys throw strikes, but there were balls that were middle-middle to the first seven hitters. Tonight, he was right down the middle.

Tito was blunt, and correct.

Francona: "[Y]ou're excited for the game, and in the second inning you're in survival mode so you don't ruin the bullpen."

The Rays never had scored 16 runs against the Red Sox. They beat Boston 15-9 on July 24, 2003, and 14-5 on both May 9, 2009 and September 7, 2010.

Tampa Bay scored a whopping 44% (16 of 36) of their total runs last night. ... After scoring 20 times in their first nine games, they nearly doubled that total last night. ... Six of the Rays' 18 doubles were hit last night. ... Nearly one-third of their extra-base hits this year (9 of 29) were in last night's game. ... Tampa Bay raised its team batting by 38 points (.163 to .201) and team slugging percentage by 63 points (.284 to .347).

The Globe's Peter Abraham says it's time to trade Matsuzaka, though it would be a strict salary dump and

would not be easy. The Red Sox would have to eat a bunch of money [Dice is due roughly $20 million] and they probably wouldn't get much back for him, maybe just a couple of mid-level prospects.

But it has to be done.

Matsuzaka is 13-14 with a 5.34 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP over the last three seasons. That includes going 0-4 with a 7.54 ERA in his last seven starts. ...

[Trading him] would cost them a lot of money, but at this point putting him in a game is counterproductive to winning.

Steve Buckley adds: "[I]t's quite possible that no Red Sox player in recent memory was booed as badly as Matsuzaka was last night.

I would not be annoyed if Matsuzaka was no longer on the team, but there is no way Theo Epstein -- who understands a sunk cost -- will trade him now. Making such a drastic decision a mere 11 days into a six-month season would be done purely out of panic, a reaction based not on logic but to appease the yowling portion of the fan base who wants the GM to do something. That is the exact opposite of Epstein's successful way of doing business.

Matsuzaka had a below league-average 93 ERA+ last year, but among American League fifth starters, that would have ranked as 2nd best (Jake Peavy of the White Sox was at 94). He'll get a few more starts -- and if the dismal outings continue, he may develop an "injury".

G10: Rays 16, Red Sox 5

Rays    - 160 113 004 - 16 20  1
Red Sox - 001 100 111 -  5 10  1

It was a nightmare evening for the Red Sox, as Tampa Bay nearly matched its runs scored total for their previous nine games (20).

The 1-8 team that began the day with a MLB-worst team OPS of .516 (.163/.232/.284) raked Matsuzaka (2-8-7-2-2, 47) over the coals in the second, as the first seven batters reached base. Terry Francona allowed Dice to start the third, but after a single and a walk, Tito went to the pen; his walk to the mound drew perhaps the loudest cheers of the night. The Rays later smacked Tim Wakefield and former Rays reliever Dan Wheeler around.

It's not worth rehashing any of what happened in this game -- I don't want to write it and you don't want to read it -- but I will point out that Boston's first two hits were triples from Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz.

Jeremy Hellickson / Daisuke Matsuzaka

Hellickson, who turned 24 three days ago, is the rookie right-hander that the Rays (1-8) hope will take Matt Garza's place in the rotation. Baseball Prospectus 2011 ranked Hellickson as the #9 prospect:

Hellickson doesn't have the kind of raw stuff that normally lands a player in the top 10, but he's hardly a finesse pitcher. His fastball, curve, and changeup are all at least a tick above average, but it's what he does with his arsenal that is so special. There are decade-plus veterans who don't have Hellickson's polish, as he varies the movement of his fastball and places all of his offerings in the strike zone with laser-like precision. The Rays will find a way to get him to the big leagues this year, and some scouts have already broken an unwritten rule by comparing him to a young Greg Maddux.

Hellickson made his 2011 debut on April 6 against the Angels: 5.2-6-3-2-10, 99. He allowed single runs in three separate innings. "I obviously need to throw my fastball more. I fell in love with my curveball a little bit too much last game." Last year, on September 7, Hellickson allowed three runs in 1.2 innings of relief against Boston.

Last Wednesday in Cleveland, Matsuzaka allowed three runs in five innings, while throwing 96 pitches. (WEEI preview of tonight's game)

The Orioles (6-3) and Yankees (5-4) begin a series in New York tomorrow. The Blue Jays (5-4) are in Seattle tonight.

Details of Clay Buchholz's new contract:
2011: $550,000 (+ $1 million signing bonus)
2012: $3.5 million
2013: $5.5 million
2014: $7.7 million
2015: $12 million
2016: $13 million team option (or $245,000 buyout)
2017: $13.5 million team option (or $500,000 buyout)
(2017 option increases to $14 million if Buchholz finishes either first or second in Cy Young voting during the contract.)

50 Years Ago Today

On April 11, 1961, Carl Yastrzemski made his major league debut, in a 5-2 loss to the Kansas City A's at Fenway Park.

Yaz played left field and batted fifth. He singled in his first plate appearance. Dick Howser also made his debut that day, as Kansas City's shortstop.

Also: 5,000 days ago, Curt Schilling stole the only base of his career. ... It was with the Phillies on August 22, 1997, in the seventh inning of a game against the Dodgers. Schilling tried stealing another base with the Diamondbacks on July 28, 2000, but was thrown out.

Gonzalez Say His Hand Is Fine

Adrian Gonzalez did not have any x-rays taken of his left hand, which was hit by a CC Sabathia fastball in the fifth inning of last night's game.

Gonzalez played the rest of the game, and iced the hand afterwards.

I don't think it's broken or anything. I was able to swing the bat. I'm going to be fine. There isn't any pain, other than a little bit of tingling or numbness.

G9: Red Sox 4, Yankees 0

Yankees - 000 000 000 - 0  2  0
Red Sox - 001 000 21x - 4 12  0

Beckett allowed only two hits over eight innings, and established a career-high against the Yankees with 10 strikeouts (8-2-0-1-10, 103). Jonathan Papelbon pitched a perfect ninth. Beckett and Bot combined to retire the last 17 Yankees batters of the game.

It was Beckett's first double-digit strikeout game since July 27, 2009.

Marco Scutaro, batting at the bottom of the order, reached base four times; his two-run double off Joba Chamberlain in the seventh gave the Red Sox a 3-0 cushion.

Boston had at least two runners on base in seven of its eight innings. The Sox loaded the bases with no outs in the third. They had a run wiped off the board when Kevin Youkilis slid out of the baseline trying to break up a double play at second base. Mike Cameron immediately singled to score the run "again".

Facing Joba in the seventh, David Ortiz walked. One out later, J.D. Drew walked, Jason Varitek singled, and Scutaro doubled. Freddie Garcia walked Youkilis to open the eighth and gave up an RBI double to Ortiz that sailed into the triangle on the fly.

Dustin Pedroia singled three times and was walked intentionally. He had three hits in each of the three games against the Yankees. His 9-for-13 showing raised his average from .227 to .400. His OPS rocketed from .488 to 1.019!

In addition to his double, Scuatro singled and walked twice. Adrian Gonzalez (who was hit on the left hand by a Sabathia (5.2-9-1-4-4, 118) pitch in the fifth), Youkilis, Ortiz were each on base three times.

All of the other AL East teams lost today, so the Jays and Yankees are 1 GB the Orioles, with the Red Sox 4 GB. The Rays, who come to Fenway tomorrow, are 5 GB.

CC Sabathia / Josh Beckett