Pedro, Wakefield, Lowe. Those are the pitchers for the first three games of the ALDS. So far, so good. Grady has not ruled out bringing Pedro back on 3 days rest for Game 4, but I don't think we'll have a solid answer to that question until next Saturday. ... ALCS tickets will go on sale Monday at 6:00 pm. ... Suppan had a horrible outing in Tampa Bay this afternoon (4 runs in the first inning). He settled down and pitched 6 innings (8 hits, 5 runs), but that opening frame certainly hurt his slim chances of starting Game 4 (or of even making the plane to Oakland). Sauerbeck pitched a 1-2-3 inning and Jones retired 3 of his 4 batters. Boston lost 5-4.

One thing I noticed when looking at the standings is that Houston has done much worse that you would have expected considering its runs scored and runs allowed. Bill James found that RS/RA is a very good indicator of a team's W/L record. Look at the standings at the bottom of this page; most teams are within 3 games of their expected record. James's Pythagorean theorem: Runs scored [squared] / (Runs scored [squared] + runs allowed [squared]).

          W   L  GB     RS   RA  EXPTD  DIFF

Cubs     88  73  --    716  678  85 76    +3

Astros   86  75   2    797  672  94 67    -8

From looking at those RS/RA, you would expect the Astros to have a 9-game lead over the Cubs. One reason for this could be a large number of blowouts, though those do tend to even out over 162 games. Looking at Houston's schedule, they've actually won many more blowouts than they've lost. By my count, in games decided by 8 or more runs, Houston is 12-3. I could say it's Jimy Williams's fault, because he managed in Boston before going to Houston and I know all too well his horrid lineup construction and (over)use of the bullpen (... must ... suppress ... rage ...), but it may not be that easy.

First, Jimy's Pythags in Boston were within 1 or 2 games every season. Second, it's partly due to Jimy's strategies that the Astros have scored and allowed the amount of runs they have this year, so compare that to what they should have done under Jimy is almost like comparing an object to itself. ... Regardless, I still think Jimy is a horrible manager and the difference in the little chart above remains fascinating.