Best Projected Rotations 2004. BP's Dayn Perry takes the VORP for each projected rotation member and uses the team totals to determine the rankings.

Rank    Team                    Total Rotation VORP

1.      Red Sox                 217.4

2.      Cubs                    191.9

3.      Yankees                 188.2

4.      A's                     151.8

5.      Astros                  148.9

6.      Mariners                122.4

7.      Phillies                120.2

8.      Angels                  118.2

9.      Twins                   114.0

10.     Blue Jays               112.6

11.     Diamondbacks            106.1

12.     White Sox               102.6

13.     Dodgers                  98.7

14.     Marlins                  94.1

15.     Cardinals                93.3

16.     Padres                   90.1

17.     Royals                   89.5

18.     Giants                   87.3

19.     Expos                    70.7

20.     Orioles                  70.0

21.     Pirates                  65.9

22.     Braves                   64.3

22.     Mets                     64.3

24.     Indians                  59.7

25.     Rangers                  57.7

26.     Rockies                  48.8

27.     Brewers                  43.3

28.     Reds                     42.3

29.     Devil Rays               41.8

30.     Tigers                   37.3

Perry notes: "The staggering VORP projection of Boston's Pedro Martinez (70.0) is better than that of the entire rotation of 10 other teams. ... PECOTA projects only a 7.0 VORP for Jon Lieber, which sounds a bit low. He seems like a good bet to heartily outperform the projection, and the Yanks could wind up with a better corps than the Cubs. ... PECOTA says the second-best starter on the Angels isn't Jarrod Washburn, Kelvim Escobar or Ramon Ortiz; rather, it's John Lackey. ... [I]t may come as a surprise that PECOTA tabs [Toronto] as having the seventh-best rotation in the AL. It's possible the best three teams in baseball may all be in the AL East."

Michael Wolverton on Support-Neutral Stats: "The idea behind the pitcher's W/L record is flawed on its face. ... If the offense fails to put runs on the board, or if the bullpen melts down in the late innings, the starter won't get the win no matter how well he pitches. Conversely, if the offense is having a great night ... the starter doesn't have to do anything more than last five innings to get the W. ... [T]here's been a gradual (very gradual) movement among baseball fans over the past 20 years to pay less attention to W/L record and more to ERA in pitching evaluation. And that's a good thing, since ERA is a good statistic. ... [But] it's not without its limitations."

Who am I kidding? I'll never stop linking to discussions of the Yankees' 3B/SS debate. Will Carroll thinks moving Rodriguez to 3B "could cost [the Yankees] three wins" and in the 2004 AL East, "that's a lot." ... Icy Jeter Seems to Have Left A-Rod in the Cold : "A friend of Jeter said the shortstop never relents once he holds a grudge, cutting out anyone from his small inner circle he feels has betrayed him. 'What is amazing," the friend said, "is how easily he does it. He doesn't have vendettas. He doesn't have fights; I don't think I've even ever seen him raise his voice. He doesn't do confrontation. He just puts an ice wall up and you're done.' ... Rodriguez is voracious and wants to swallow New York whole. ... Now, at best, Jeter has been downgraded to co-prince of the city."