All six divisions are here, but I'll post only the AL East (wins, losses, runs for and against, division titles won, wild cards won, and high and low win totals):
High Low
W L RF RA DIV WC Made% Wins Wins
Boston 92 70 879 740 76 6 82% 105 77
New York 85 77 821 786 14 16 30% 99 70
Toronto 83 79 748 740 9 14 23% 99 65
Baltimore 73 89 733 809 1 1 2% 89 54
Tampa Bay 70 92 711 827 1 0 1% 85 59SG: Prior to the Crisp trade, the Yankees and Red Sox were pretty close to even. However, according to ZiPS now the Red Sox are clearly better. ... The bad news is that the Yankees are spending $190 million or so on a 30% chance of making the playoffs according to at least one system. With very little else in the way of roster moves likely at this point, the best hope is that players on hand exceed their projection. (my emphasis)SG says he'll run a bigger set of sims in spring training when rosters are more set. Here are his sims from 2005 and 2004.
9 comments:
I'll be absolutely stunned if more than one of those three clubs finishes with fewer than 92 wins, let alone 90.
You ruined the ending for us!
Great post - thanks, Tim - SoxSpot.com
Looks like a one game playoff between the Angels and Yanks for the Wild Card.
That'd be fun to watch.
Regardless of how the prospect projections were included in the simulation and Wells (in or out), which is highly questionable (and I am too lazy to read all of the comments on replacement Yank blog), does anyone feel comfortable pencilling the 39 Schilling in for 174 in with an era of 3.47? I sure don't. After glancing over Sox and MFY zips to PECOTA projections, Schilling is the X factor. PECOTA has him at 99.7 with an ERA of 4.2. Even Foulke didn't have as much of a variance.
Just a general comment here.
Call me overly optimistic, but I really don't get why so many people take for granted that the Yankees are far-and-away the better team this year.
I know for mainstream folks it's like buying IBM --- you can't go wrong betting on big blue.
But really, the Yankees are all a year older (including JD). To confidently call them vastly better than the retooled Red Sox and Blue Jays is a hard thing to fathom.
I know ZiPS is severely imperfect, but if you have no trouble believing the Sox are a third place team, it should stand to reason that the Yanks are just a likely to finish third as well.
I guess I'm just happy to see one thing that corresponds to my gut feeling on the coming season.
Grunherz - They're absolutely not far and away a better team, I just don't think they'll be 11 games worse than they were last year. I think if anything their pitching will even improve a little bit, and the addition of Damon will help offset the loss in production from age. I really still think this division will come down to which of the three teams stays healthiest.
In 2005, Zips predicted:
...The Twins to win the AL Central by 10 games over Detroit, and 12 over the ChiSox and Tribe, who tied for 3rd place. The Twins finished 3rd, 16 games behind Chicago.
...the Angels to win 84 games and finish 3rd in the AL West. They actually won 95.
...the Mariners to win 85 games. They won 63.
...the Braves to finish at .500, last in the NL East. they won 90 games and the Division (again).
...the Astros to win only 76 games and finish 4th. They won 89 games, the Wild Card and the National League pennant.
...the Pirates to win 74 games. they went 67-95, the worst record in the NL.
...the DOdgers to win 92 games and the NL West. The lost 91 games and would have finished last if the Rockies hadn't fielded a AAA team for most of the season.
Overall, Zips was off by an average og 7.33 wins per team, using the same model as last year. Don't believe the hype. That's why they play the games.
ZIPS doesn't factor in injuries, and assumes the regulars get all their PAs. (Right?) Then the real world scenarios could certainly skew the results.
What it is saying is that if the 2006 Red Sox, as constituted, stays healthy, this is what we could expect.
That will not happen, of course. Some players on the Sox and MFY will get hurt and miss time.
Who are those players? We don't know. But the team that the front office has put on the field for this season looks strong. Stronger than New York.
Oh man, it is getting so close to Spring Training. Baseball. Ah, okay, yes, I can feel the buzz. Sox in 2006? No, not the White Sox...the Red Sox.
Yup, I am ready for baseball. (And not this World Classic yada yada...)
With the Sox signing Crisp recently, I think the team is solidified to continue their streak of finishing second to the Yankees. And who really cares anyway. As long as second is good enough for the Wild Card and the Sox are playing great ball in October, I hope they finish second.
2006. Starting lineup
Crisp - cf
Nixon - rf
Ortiz - dh
Ramirez - lf
Lowell - 3b
Youkillis - 1b
Varitek - c
Gonzales/Loretta - ss
Graffanino/Cora - 2b
Pretty solid!
Pitching rotation
Schilling
Beckett
Wakefield
Clement
Arroyo
Wells - if not traded
Pretty solid!
Predictions;
Comeback player; Foulke --- he will rebound nicely from last year
Rookie; David Murphy --- at Baylor, he hit for an incredible average, it is no surprise he has moved up the ladder so quickly.
Best pitcher --- Schilling will get 20 wins again.
Finish;
Schilling 20-6
Beckett 18-11
Wakefield 15-9
Arroyo - 16-10
Beckett - 14-10
Wells 16-11
Of course, one of these pitchers will be a scratch starter, so someone's numbers are going to suffer
Sox finish 2nd as usual, the 9th year in a row.
Will play the Seattle Mariners in the Wild Card round,
Win the series 3-1
Will play the White Sox in round 2, ALCS.
Win the series in the late innings of game 7, 4 games to 3.
MVP; Ramirez
On to the World Series,
Will play the San Diego Padres
Win the series, 4-2.
MVP; Schilling
Look out for a fun year! And if none of this comes true, oh well, I am still enjoying watching "Faith Rewarded" on DVD. I don't know about "Fever Pitch"...not enough game time footage.
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