March 12, 2005

2005 -- The Results of 100 Seasons

I meant to post this awhile back. In late January, SG (from Replacement Level Yankees Weblog) posted the results of 100 simulations of the 2005 season:

Avg High High
W L RF RA DIV WC Win Loss

American League
East
Boston Red Sox 92 70 920 788 52 23 109 86
New York Yankees 91 71 905 794 43 25 111 85
Toronto Blue Jays 82 80 804 790 4 9 96 96
Baltimore Orioles 76 86 819 866 0 2 90 103
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 75 87 762 833 1 2 88 102

Central
Minnesota Twins 86 76 793 749 71 0 100 98
Detroit Tigers 76 86 767 824 10 0 88 100
Cleveland Indians 74 88 799 847 10 0 94 105
Chicago White Sox 74 88 753 834 8 2 94 103
Kansas City Royals 69 93 779 912 1 0 80 103

West
Oakland Athletics 89 73 842 745 50 9 110 91
Seattle Mariners 85 77 810 780 22 13 103 90
Anaheim Angels 84 78 808 781 19 11 96 91
Texas Rangers 81 81 843 852 9 4 98 96

National League
East
Philadelphia Phillies 92 70 789 684 48 20 107 80
Florida Marlins 87 75 761 708 23 14 98 88
New York Mets 87 75 775 710 19 19 103 90
Washington Nationals 81 81 704 715 6 6 99 96
Atlanta Braves 81 81 766 761 4 11 95 97

Central
St. Louis Cardinals 96 66 781 641 92 4 110 81
Chicago Cubs 82 80 746 720 6 7 94 97
Milwaukee Brewers 79 83 703 724 2 3 96 104
Houston Astros 76 86 688 752 0 1 89 100
Pittsburgh Pirates 74 88 703 767 0 0 91 101
Cincinnati Reds 70 92 732 831 0 0 87 108

West
Los Angeles Dodgers 92 70 748 661 74 5 110 94
San Francisco Giants 84 78 773 739 22 8 101 94
San Diego Padres 78 84 714 742 3 2 90 97
Colorado Rockies 72 90 796 883 1 0 86 104
Arizona Diamondbacks 65 97 674 822 0 0 82 114
SG: "Just like last year, Boston and New York appear to be very evenly matched, although both teams project to be slightly worse than last year. Toronto projects much better than I expected, especially with the loss of Delgado. What's troubling for Yankee fans is that they missed the playoffs 1/3 of the time in these runs."

According to this, 20 of the 30 teams made the playoffs at least 10% of the time.

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