July 20, 2006

The Downside Of Winning The World Series

A very small downside, but still ...

Tonight, NESN is running a show called "What If ...". They will be replaying, with Diamond Mind's computer simulations, what might have happened had Pedro been removed from Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS a little bit earlier than he actually was.

NESN has been carpetbombing us with commercials for this show during Sox games, giving me the "opportunity" to see a certain moron way more than I ever expected once he left town. Now that the bitterness of the World Series drought is over, NESN and the Red Sox have shown much more interest in the history of the team, but you know damn well that if 2004 had not happened, revisiting this particular wound in such detail would never have seen the light of day.

NESN is being pretty tight-lipped about the actual process, but I believe the rest of the game was simulated 100 times to get the most probable outcome. I'm intrigued by the idea of computer simulations, but I'm not sure this one is being done correctly.

When exactly do the simulations start? From the commercials, it appears it's after the mound visit when Pedro was not removed. Yet NESN's website says: "We're replaying the game, pulling Pedro with one down in the 8th ...", which makes it sound like he gets pulled after the first batter popped up (although there was also only one out at the time of the mound visit).

Using the mound visit would be a huge error. No intelligent person thinks Pedro should have been in the game at that point. The proper point would be at the beginning of the eighth inning. At the time I was okay with Pedro starting the eighth, yet from everything I've read about conversations in the dugout, he was done after seven. "Pulling him" with one out and no one on (or even after the first hit) would be the next logical point.

Is anyone going to watch this?

7 comments:

Jere said...

2003 is such a key part of what made 2004 so great. Why they'd want to go back and say "Oh, look, see, we really would've won if..." is beyond me. It's very Yes Network to pretend the team has never lost before.

Granted, I came up with an idea to re-do the end of '86 Game 6, which they actually ended up doing a radio version. And that's kind of cute, whatever, you had the 20th anniversary, and those guys truly should have won, but '03 was so recent. Just doesn't make sense.

Ben said...

I'm gonna watch it. It looks interestng.

suzy lux said...

i wish they would just let that game die, and with it all the psychology of it.
they actually had a little countdown graphic to it on the screen after yesterdays game. just a bit overboard, nesn, kthx.

i'll prolly end up watching it tho, gd it. even tho i really don't wanna relive all that bullfuckery. seeing posada's little contorted troll face after that double in the 8th is something i'd rather forego.

suzy lux said...

uh, ok. against my will, i'm watching it. and they're starting from the beginning! lineup intros an all. it's like---it's on again. fresh.


-huff-

i'm missing sportscenter. must switch over...must..switch ;//

Josh said...

I don't get NESN here in DC, but I'm curious what the computer models come up with. I wouldn't want to watch, though.

... Thanks to Surviving Grady ...

It was crazy to send Pedro out for the 8th. Removing him with one one or whatever else during the eighth would have been better than not removing him at all, but it was clear that, after he escaped the 7th, that should have been IT.

If there was any doubt that he had anything left, Jeter's double should have removed any doubt. A run scoring, on Williams's RBI, also -- no doubt.

The manager had several opportunities to correct his mistake. He passed on several of them.

And, by the way, Embree, Timlin, and Williamson's relief work answered the question right there and then.

And, though you may doubt me after reading this, I'm not bitter. Every damn thing that happened before 10.04 was For The Best. Really.

suzy lux said...

forget about What If...with taking pedro out, what about What If...with not taking roger out in the 4th??
we had 2 on with no outs, mussina comes in and swiftly strikes out tek then gets damon to ground into a double play.

...

L-girl said...

I hate this. I don't think they should be doing it and I can't imagine why any Red Sox fan would want to watch it. Opening recently-healed wounds and squeezing lemon juice into them is not my idea of a good time.

Saying "it's very Yes Network" is another way of recognizing that both sides do the same stupid shit.