The American League Most Valuable Player will be announced on Tuesday.
Derek Jeter easily topped the MVP voting at Baseball Prospectus (from both the
staff and
public) and he won the Aaron Award as the AL's top offensive player. This gives me a pretty good feeling that he'll also be the favourite of the BBWAA.
Back in mid-September, many scribes proclaimed Jeter as the logical choice, especially after David Ortiz missed eight games with heart palpitations. In mid-September, Bob Ryan of the Globe
wrote: "It would be a mockery to anoint anyone else."
However, even with Papi's time off, Jeter played in only three more games (154 to 151), so there is no reason why Ortiz's absence should count against him. Nevertheless, The Man himself has
no expectations of winning: "Apparently, a designated hitter doesn't win it ... I was very frustrated in 2004 when I didn't win the award, but I don't think about that anymore."
So, after finishing the second-best season of his career, the Yankee shortstop and captain is the favourite. For Red Sox fans, the discussion can perhaps be boiled down to this question(s): Was Jeter the most valuable player in the American League in 2006? (And if not, who was?)
The first problem -- and perhaps the biggest obstacle -- is figuring out exactly what a "Valuable Player" is. The voting standards on the official ballot are open to multiple interpretations. Ryan admitted that the concept is nebulous:
How much stock are we really supposed to put in the word "valuable"? Is "valuable" actually a synonym for "irreplaceable," and if that's the case, why should a player be penalized if his team has an adequate substitute for him, thus rendering him less "irreplaceable"? I must tell you I have a real problem when people harp on this word "valuable," as opposed to, for example, "outstanding." I'd like to introduce another word: worthy. Most Worthy Player. How does that sound?"
Not much better. "Worth" is no easier to pin down than "value".
Here's my definition of the MVP: If I was building a team for 2007, my MVP would be the guy I would choose first if I was guaranteed his 2006 performance.
I looked at ten worthy contenders -- Jeter, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, and Travis Hafner -- and looked at how they did in three categories: hitting, fielding, baserunning. (Johan Santana will get some much-deserved votes, and he's in my Top 10, but I'm looking only at non-pitchers.)
Here are some basic hitting stats and each player's ranking among AL hitters (I've listed them by OPS):
AVG R OBP R SLG R OPS R
Hafner .308 17 .439 2 .659 1 1.097 1
Ramirez .321 8 .439 1 .619 4 1.058 2
Ortiz .287 38 .413 7 .636 2 1.049 3
Thome .288 37 .416 5 .598 5 1.014 4
Dye .315 12 .385 12 .622 3 1.006 5
Giambi .253 71 .413 6 .558 7 .971 6
Mauer .347 1 .429 3 .507 20 .936 7
Morneau .321 7 .375 18 .559 6 .934 8
Rodriguez .290 32 .392 9 .523 14 .914 13
Jeter .343 2 .417 4 .483 29 .900 15
Jeter finished second in the AL in batting average and 4th in OBP, but his lack of power gives him the lowest OPS of these 10 players. His slugging percentage was a distant 29th -- 176 points behind Hafner.
Of Jeter's 214 hits, 158 of them -- 74% -- were singles. By comparison, Hafner had 47% (66 of 140), Ortiz 47% (75 of 160) and Manny 56% (81 of 144). Mark Loretta, who appeared to hit
only singles this year, had 79% (143 of 181).
Baseball Reference's Top 10 in OPS+ (which is park-adjusted):
Hafner 183
Ramirez 168
Ortiz 164
Thome 156
Giambi 154
Dye 152
Mauer 144
Guerrero 144
Thomas 141
Morneau 140
Jeter came in at 138.
Runs Created as calculated by Baseball Reference, The Hardball Times and ESPN (and each player's AL ranking):
BR R THT R ESPN R
Jeter 123 8 138 1 128.2 3
Ortiz 146 1 127 2 141.8 1
Thome 122 9 124 4 122.8 5
Morneau 125 6 121 5 119.7 8
Hafner 130 2 121 6 124.4 4
Dye 128 3 120 8 120.4 7
Rodriguez 116 117 9 113.5 13
Ramirez 124 7 112 15 116.7 11
Giambi 100 111 16 106.5 20
Mauer 114 106 20 107.6 19
THT says its formula is "the most complicated version, which includes the impact of hitting well with runners in scoring position, and is adjusted for ballpark impact", so I ranked the hitters according to them.
Grady Sizemore was #3 at THT (124), #4 at BR (128) and #2 at ESPN (134.1). ... And even though he missed all of September, Hafner did amazingly well.
Runs Created per 27 Outs (ranked according to THT):
BREF THT R ESPN R
Hafner 10.77 10.4 1 10.31 1
Ramirez 10.24 9.9 2 9.64 2
Thome 9.15 9.6 3 9.21 4
Jeter 7.58 9.1 4 7.90 7
Giambi 7.71 9.0 5 8.22 6
Dye 8.77 8.8 6 8.25 5
Ortiz 9.50 8.6 7 9.23 3
Mauer 8.23 8.4 8 7.76 8
Morneau 7.92 8.1 9 7.59 9
Rodriguez 7.18 7.8 11 7.03 15
Jeter had the third-most PA in the AL (715), so this rate stat bumps him down a bit. According to BR, a lineup of 9 Hafners would score nearly 3.2 more runs per nine innings than a lineup of 9 Jeters -- and Giambi was actually the top hitter in the Yankees' lineup. (What's with the differences in Jeter's and Giambi's THT numbers?)
Baseball Prospectus' Equivalent Average (
EQA) (and Al ranking):
EQA AL
Hafner .355 1
Ramirez .342 2
Ortiz .334 3
Thome .328 4
Giambi .326 5
Mauer .321 6
Dye .320 7
Jeter .316 8
Rodriguez .311 10
Morneau .308 13
EQA measures "total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching." EQA also considers baserunning, but not fielding, and "is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average".
SABR member Bill Gilbert compiled the 2006 leaders in Bases Per Plate Appearance (BPA). This is the formula: (TB + BB + HB + SB - CS - GIDP) / (AB + BB + HB + SF). Here are the 14 MLB players with a BPA over .600 in 2006:
Hafner .703
Howard .700
Pujols .694
Ortiz .681
Beltran .667
Thome .659
Berkman .658
Ramirez .654
Dye .637
Giambi .634
Soriano .632
Sizemore .605
Johnson .604
Cabrera .604
and six more with a .600+ BPA, but who did not have enough plate appearances to qualify:
Luke Scott .667
Barry Bonds .647
Chipper Jones .629
Ryan Theriot .621
Chris Duncan .615
David Ross .613
(This was Manny's 9th straight season over .600.) I emailed Gilbert and asked for the BPA of the other AL players we are looking at. Putting them together:
Hafner .703
Ortiz .681
Thome .659
Ramirez .654
Dye .637
Giambi .634
Sizemore .605
Morneau .573
Rodriguez .573
Jeter .562
Mauer .535
Regarding Mauer, Gilbert wrote: "Not much power and too many GIDP."
One stat in which Jeter led the AL was
Win Shares, a complicated formula invented by Bill James. Here are each player's batting and fielding WS and their rounded total:
Bat Fld WS WSP
Jeter 28.0 4.6 33 .882
Mauer 21.3 9.5 31 .970
Ortiz 29.3 0.1 29 1.093
Ramirez 26.9 2.1 29 1.008
Morneau 25.5 2.0 27 .765
Ibanez 24.0 3.1 27 .737
Guillen 21.5 4.3 26 .769
Dye 23.7 2.8 26 .812
Thome 25.9 0.0 26 1.089
Young 18.5 7.7 26 .679
Hafner, Sizemore, Santana and Slappy all had 25 WS. (In the NL, Pujols (39), Beltran (38), Berkman (34) and Cabrera (34) topped every AL player.) Note: James explains that Win Shares do not discriminate against players on losing teams on pages 168-173 of his book
Win Shares.
The WS stats come from
The Hardball Times, which says it has "
tweaked James' original formula somewhat".
Jeter topped the AL in WS, but when we look at Win Shares Percent (WSP) -- a measure of the player's contribution, given his playing time -- he drops to 5th on our list.
Jeter also led the AL in Value Over Replacement Player (
VORP), which measures "the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances." However, when we adjust for playing time and look at VORPr (runs per game), Jeter
slips a bit:
VORP Rank VORPr Rank
Jeter 80.5 1 .498 3
Hafner 79.7 2 .611 1
Ortiz 76.8 3 .494 4
Mauer 66.9 5 .470 5
Ramirez 66.1 7 .523 2
Dye 64.6 9 .458 6
Thome 62.6 11 .445 8
Morneau 52.0 13 .336 16
Rodriguez 51.6 14 .339 15
Giambi 47.4 19 .363 14
Looking back at Bob Ryan's article asserting Jeter's worthiness as MVP, he wrote:
The numbers are all in order, right down to categories such as hitting with runners in scoring position and late-inning pressure averages. ... In a season of great Yankees turmoil, he was the absolute rock, the absolute leader, the absolute irreplaceable man. He was, in short, the most worthy player in the American League.
Here is how our candidates
hit with runners in scoring position (minimum 150 PA and ranked by AL OPS):
AVG OBP SLG OPS AL
Hafner .305 .472 .718 1.189 1
Thome .336 .468 .690 1.158 2
Giambi .271 .485 .662 1.147 3
Dye .351 .421 .716 1.138 4
Ramirez .323 .471 .605 1.076 5
Jeter .381 .482 .581 1.063 6
Mauer .360 .497 .544 1.041 9
Morneau .323 .401 .575 .976 13
Ortiz .288 .429 .538 .967 14
Rodriguez .302 .431 .508 .939 19
Jeter finished #2 in batting average (behind Michael Young, .412), #3 in OBP and #10 in slugging. His slugging with RISP was 43 points higher than Ortiz. (Albert Pujols led all major leaguers with a .535 OBP, .802 SLG, and 1.337 OPS with RISP -- and his .397 BA was second to Young.)
"Close and Late" are plate appearances "in the seventh or later inning with the score tied or one team leading by a run; or with the tying run on base, at the plate, or on deck." Again, here are our 10 hitters (minimum 75 PA ranked by AL OPS):
AVG OBP SLG OPS AL
Hafner .411 .522 .821 1.343
Ortiz .314 .443 .756 1.199 1
Ramirez .262 .459 .525 .983 7
Giambi .222 .421 .556 .977 8
Dye .299 .351 .582 .933
Morneau .299 .343 .540 .884 15
Thome .188 .409 .469 .878 16
Mauer .288 .419 .452 .871 17
Jeter .325 .434 .434 .868 18
Rodriguez .237 .326 .368 .694 56
Hafner (69) and Dye (73) did not have 75 PA, but I put them in the OPS ranking. This confirms Ortiz's standing as a guy who delivers when tight games are in the late innings. Thome and Giambi don't hit but they walk a lot -- and Slappy doesn't do much of anything.
A hitter's RBIs are subject to how many of his teammates are on base ahead of him. BP has a stat called OBI% -- the percentage of all runners on base batted in. Here are our MVP candidates and how they finished in the AL (with PA, ROB (runners on base for the player) and OBI (RBI-HR)):
PA ROB OBI OBI% AL
Morneau 661 469 96 20.5% 1
Hafner 564 382 75 19.6% 4
Jeter 715 444 83 18.7% 8
Mauer 608 397 71 17.9% 11
Dye 611 430 76 17.7% 13
Thome 610 389 67 17.2% 15
Ortiz 686 485 83 17.1% 18
Giambi 579 410 70 17.0% 21
Ramirez 558 406 67 16.5% 27
Rodriguez 674 534 86 16.1% 32
Is this a better definition of clutch? If so, Jeter tops Papi. Jeter and Ortiz each drove in 83 teammates, but look at their opportunities: even though Ortiz had 29 fewer trips to the plate than Jeter, he batted with 41 more runners on base. When it came to driving in runs, Jeter took better advantage of his situations than Ortiz.
More comparison of Jeter and Ortiz:
AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ EQA
Jeter .343 .417 .483 .900 138 .316
Ortiz .287 .413 .636 1.049 164 .334
RS RBI BB K RC RC/27 VORP
Jeter 118 97 69 102 123 7.58 79.2
Ortiz 115 137 119 117 146 9.50 75.8
Ortiz makes up for the .056 difference in batting average (which says a single and a home run are equal) by drawing 50 more walks, thus making their OBPs roughly the same. Ortiz was obviously the better slugger, creating 23 additional runs in 29 fewer plate appearances. EQA gives Jeter credit for his stolen bases, but Ortiz still comes out comfortably ahead.
Manny and Jeter:
AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ EQA
Jeter .343 .417 .483 .900 138 .316
Ramirez .321 .439 .619 1.058 168 .342
RS RBI BB K RC RC/27 VORP
Jeter 118 97 69 102 123 7.58 79.2
Ramirez 79 102 100 102 124 10.24 66.1
Re Jeter's 2006 OPS+ of 138: Manny has
never had an OPS+
lower than 143 in any of his 12 full seasons. Ramirez's overall numbers are even more impressive when you learn that Boston's #5 hitters -- the guys batting behind Manny -- were far and away the worst in the AL -- putting up .231/.321/.362 line.
FieldingSince several of our candidates -- Ortiz, Hafner, Thome -- are DHs, we should ask whether Jeter's MVP chances are helped by his performance at shortstop.
One note: Fielding percentage is just about worthless -- and has been for more than 100 years. A player will not make an error on a ball he can't get to -- he also won't record an out. I'll quickly note that of the nine qualifying AL shortstops, Jeter was 4th in fielding percentage -- middle of the pack -- before we all agree that FP should be immediately retired and never mentioned again (are you listening, Remdawg?).
Fielding statistics remain imprecise, but they are improving. Two of the best known are
Range Factor (putouts and assists divided by innings) and Zone Rating (the percentage of balls fielded in the player's defensive zone):
INN TC PO A E RF ZR
Peralta 1275.1 710 235 459 16 4.90 .817
Young 1356.1 747 241 492 14 4.86 .836
Uribe 1130.0 604 217 373 14 4.70 .868
Tejada 1294.2 675 238 418 19 4.56 .824
Berroa 1117.1 573 188 367 18 4.47 .791
Betancourt 1374.1 701 251 430 20 4.46 .806
Guillen 1235.0 634 178 428 28 4.42 .832
Cabrera 1321.2 645 253 376 16 4.29 .818
Jeter 1292.1 610 214 381 15 4.14 .810
Jeter finished last in RF and 7th in ZR. Among 24 qualifying MLB shortstops (playing 2 of every 3 games), Jeter was
19th. Alex Gonzalez did not play enough to meet the qualifications, but here are his fielding stats (and Alex Cora's):
INN TC PO A E RF ZR
Jeter 1292.1 610 214 381 15 4.14 .810
Gonzalez 966.1 475 163 305 7 4.36 .863
Cora 434.0 239 66 167 6 4.83 .859
An infielder's RF will be affected if his team's pitching staff allows a higher percentage of ground balls or fly balls, but in Jeter's
11 full seasons, his RF has been above the league average only 4 times (1996, 1997, 2004, 2005). In the last 7 years, Jeter's RF/9 was higher than the league average only once (2005).
Finally, Jhonny Peralta played 17 fewer innings than Jeter in 2006, but he got to
100 more balls. And although Jeter played 162 more innings than Juan Uribe, he handled only six more chances. At a minimum, Jeter would have to be above average in the field to get any push towards the MVP, and I don't see any evidence that he was.
Jeter is a very smart and good baserunner. Here are the stolen base stats for our players, ranked by steals:
SB CS SB%
Jeter 34 5 87.2
Rodriguez 15 4 78.9
Mauer 8 3 72.7
Dye 7 3 70.0
Morneau 3 3 50.0
Giambi 2 0 100.0
Ortiz 1 0 100.0
Hafner 0 0 0.0
Thome 0 0 0.0
Ramirez 0 1 0.0
The breakeven point for stealing second base is approximately 73% -- anything lower than that, and the player is harming his team. Jeter is clearly the best baserunner of the gang. But a player's baserunning is already factored into his EQA -- and Jeter was 8th in the AL in EQA.
Back in September, Bill Reynolds of the Providence Journal
wrote:
What's harder to see is the resolve, the grit, the fact that Jeter always comes to play, through the good times and the bad, the fact that it's always been Jeter that gives this team it's [sic] toughness. Maybe there is no more enduring image of his heart than the night against the Red Sox in 2004 when he chased a foul ball into the box seats, the ultimate example of hustle.
Maybe ... but that was 2.5 years ago. (And why couldn't you see that "Jeter always comes to play"?
He's right there on the field!)
Reynolds notes that although Jeter has
benefited by being on a great team throughout his career ... by always being a part of the ensemble, never having to carry a team on his back, ... never been a guy who puts up the big power numbers, the kind of hits that get on highlight films. ... [But] Jeter is having one of his best seasons, in a year when this Yankee team so needed him to have one. Are there any better MVP credentials than that?
Yes, Bill, there
are better credentials. Ortiz had a great season when his team really needed him to have one. Same with all of the other players.
Every team needs its best players to have as great a season as possible -- that's pretty basic stuff. Jeter can be as gritty, tough and hearty as humanly possible, but if he doesn't create runs for his team, it won't make a damn bit of difference in the standings.
There was no player in the AL with significant fielding skills that also put up strong batting numbers, so I went mostly with hitting. A fewmonths ago, when I first mentioned doing a long MVP post, I had Hafner and Ramirez in mind for MVP. And even though they both missed games in September -- Hafner broke his right hand on September 1 -- they remain my top 2 choices.
Hafner has led the AL in OPS+ for each of the last three seasons, and he's gotten better each year: 158, 170, 183. And despite Ortiz's numerous game-winning hits, Manny gets the nod for simply being a more productive hitter.
1. Hafner
2. Ramirez
3. Ortiz
4. Santana
5. Jeter
