Predictions And Projections IX

Over at the Home of the Pie Chart (aka Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, which I see is moving tomorrow), SG has run 1,000 seasons in each of four projections -- Dan Szymborski's ZiPS, Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA, Diamond Mind, and Sean Smith's CHONE.

However:

Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. ... Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match the actual playing time of the players involved. ... We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. ... These are the averages of 1000 seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean.

What we have here is wins and losses, runs for and against, the number of times the team won the division or wild card, and the highest and lowest win totals of any of the 1,000 seasons.

CHONE
      W     L     RF  RA  DIV  WC  HiW  LoW 
NY   94.9  67.1  941 789  610 208  117   75
Bos  91.9  70.1  890 762  360 301  113   73
Tor  80.6  81.4  820 835   26  60   99   61
Bal  71.9  90.1  784 883    2   2   89   55
Tam  71.3  90.7  823 915    2   3   93   53
  
DMB
      W     L     RF  RA  DIV  WC  HiW  LoW
NY   97.4  64.6  934 760  744 130  118   78
Tor  89.1  72.9  848 780  167 246  107   63
Bos  86.5  75.5  909 832   86 173  105   66
Bal  74.9  87.1  794 856    3  14   96   54
Tam  69.3  92.7  812 930    0   0   93   49
  
PECOTA
      W     L     RF  RA  DIV  WC  HiW  LoW
NY   94.3  67.7  911 765  571 245  115   75
Bos  92.1  69.9  893 763  388 315  111   75
Tor  80.3  81.7  809 830   30  62   99   64
Tam  77.5  84.5  803 839    8  28   98   55
Bal  74.6  87.4  749 821    4  12   96   56 
  
ZiPS
      W     L     RF  RA  DIV  WC  HiW  LoW
NY   92.1  69.9  920 806  611 112  116   70
Bos  86.8  75.2  866 786  220 177  105   67
Tor  83.8  78.2  778 765  134  98  107   66
Bal  78.7  83.3  789 823   35  24   99   58
Tam  67.6  94.4  758 879    1   3   87   47
  
Overall - 4000 seasons
      W     L     RF   RA   DIV   WC
NY   94.7  67.3  926  780  2536  695
Bos  89.3  72.7  889  786  1054  966
Tor  83.5  78.5  814  802   357  466
Bal  75.0  87.0  779  845    44   52
Tam  71.4  90.6  799  891    11   34

So there was a season in which the Devil Rays won 98 games -- and another in which the Red Sox went 66-96. I'd like to see the various player stats for that year. ... And what the hell is wrong with Diamond Mind? Its average -- 86-76 -- is pretty much a repeat of 2006. If that happens, I'll shut down this blog.

The Yankees made the playoffs 81% of the time, Boston 51%. After Jonathan Papelbon was moved out of the rotation and into the bullpen, SG re-ran 250 with each of the four projection systems, splitting what would have been Pap's starts between Julian Tavarez and Jon Lester.

        W    L    RF  RA  DIV%   WC% Playoff% 
As SP  89.3 72.7 889 786 26.4% 24.2%    50.5% 
As CL  89.3 72.7 892 794 27.2% 23.2%    50.4%

Interesting. There was absolutely no difference in the regular season. SG notes: "The improvement at the end of the game is mitigated by the weakening of the rotation. It does make Boston a better short-series team though."