Odds

The future is unknowable -- 1986 and 2004 showed us that -- but if you could play the rest of this season one million times, chances are good you'll know what "should" happen.

Cool Standings

       W   L   PCT  DIV%   WC%  POFF%
0913  89  58  .605  95.4   4.6   99.9 
0914  89  59  .601  91.3   8.7   99.9 
0915  90  59  .604  97.1   2.9   99.9 
0916  90  60  .600  93.5   6.5   99.9 
0918  90  61  .596  87.4  12.6   99.9 
0919  90  62  .592  77.2  22.8   99.9

Our chances of winning the East dropped 10% with last night's loss (thanks, Tito) and 16% in the last two days. (But, hey, our chances of winning the wild card more than tripled (cough). Still, we're as close to a lock for the playoffs as you can get without clinching.

From Baseball Prospectus:

General Post-Season Odds

          W   L   East   Card  P-Offs
Red Sox  90  62  89.77  10.21   99.98
Yankees  87  64  10.23  87.17   97.40

In this standard sim, in 1,000,000 seasons, the Red Sox made the playoffs 999,784 times.

PECOTA version:

          W   L   East   Card  P-Offs
Red Sox  90  62  89.52  10.46   99.98
Yankees  87  64  10.48  87.07   97.55

ELO version:

          W   L   East   Card  P-Offs
Red Sox  90  62  78.78  21.18   99.95
Yankees  87  64  21.23  77.73   98.96

In all of these cases, the Tigers have an approximate 3% chance of making the playoffs.