AL Cy Young

My choices for the BBA:

1. Zach Greinke, Royals

2.16 ERA - lowest in the AL since Pedro's 1.74 in 2000

203 ERA+ - 32nd best season of all-time

2.42 FiP (Fielding Independent Pitching) - lowest in AL

1.073 WHIP - lowest in AL

Per 9 IP: 2nd fewest hits, 5th fewest BB, 1st fewest HR, 3rd most K

33 starts - 1 fewer than Felix/CC; 2 fewer than Verlander

5th in IP - 0.2 fewer than CC

6 complete games; 3 shutouts

In his nine no-decisions, Greinke had a 2.35 ERA -- still good enough to top the American League. And it was a better ERA than every starting pitcher in MLB except for Chris Carpenter (2.24). Greinke's ERA in his losses was still better than the AL average (4.75).

          GS  ERA    IP     H   R  ER  BB    K   WHIP
In Wins   16  1.00  117.1  82  14  13  21  122  0.878
In Losses  8  4.62   50.2  56  32  26  13   59  1.362 
In ND      9  2.35   61.1  57  18  16  17   61  1.207

The Royals scored an average of 3.78 runs in Greinke's starts. He had three runs of support or fewer in 19 of his 33 starts.

According to ESPN's Dave Campbell, if CC Sabathia had received the same run support as Greinke, he would have finished the year with a 10-11 record. Greinke's W-L with CC's backing? 24-3.

Top 6 ERA Leaders
Starts With X Runs (Earned & Unearned) Allowed
  
           0  1  2  3  4  5+   2R or Fewer
Greinke    8 10  5  3  4  3    23 of 33  70%
Hernandez  7  8  6  4  2  7    21 of 34  62%
Halladay   5  6  6  5  4  6    17 of 32  53%
Sabathia   5  9  3  5  3  9    17 of 34  50%
Lester     6  7  4  6  2  7    17 of 32  53%
Verlander  6  6  4  6  4  9    16 of 35  46%

Rany Jazayerli says that Greinke also pitched in front of the team with the worst defensive efficiency. At the end of August, he wrote:

It's not hyperbole to suggest that, with an even average defense behind him, Greinke's ERA could be in the 1's right now.

Greinke began the season by not allowing an earned run in his first 29.2 innings. After 10 starts, his ERA was only 0.84. It crept above 1.00 for the first time on May 31. That reminded me of Pedro in 2000, when after 12 starts, his ERA was 0.99, though it had been over 1.00 before that. (Jazayerli wrote about Zach/Pedro back in May.)

John Dewan's Total Runs metric has Grienke as the American League MVP. Drive Line Mechanics seems to agree.

Joe Posnanski loves Greinke.

2. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays

3. Felix Hernandez, Mariners