RLYW's Season Simulations

Replacement Level Yankees Weblog plays the 2010 season 100,000 times in each of five simulation programs (and offers the usual wheelbarrow of caveats).

Marcel

          W     L     DIV    WC    W+/-   RS+/-  RA+/-
Yankees  97.1  64.9  49.4%  20.3%  -5.9   -17    -24
Rays     89.6  72.4  23.4%  19.7%   5.6    13    -29
Red Sox  89.1  72.9  22.5%  19.6%  -5.9   -52     -9

(W+/-, RS+/-, RA+/-: 2010 projected wins, runs scored, and runs allowed, respectively, minus 2009 actual totals. So Marcel projects the Red Sox to win almost six fewer games than in 2009, while scoring 52 fewer runs and allowing 9 fewer runs.)

CHONE

          W     L     DIV    WC    W+/-   RS+/-  RA+/-
Yankees  95.2  66.8  38.1%  22.9%  -7.8   -13    - 6
Red Sox  93.8  68.2  35.7%  20.3%  -1.2   -50    -46
Rays     87.2  74.8  19.1%  16.5%   3.2    12    -10

Oliver

          W     L     DIV    WC    W+/-   RS+/-  RA+/-
Yankees  98.7  63.3  44.2%  25.4%  -4.3     0    -38
Red Sox  94.3  67.7  29.3%  23.7%  -0.7   -66    -68
Rays     92.0  70.0  23.9%  22.0%   8.0    13    -55

PECOTA

          W     L     DIV    WC    W+/-   RS+/-  RA+/-
Red Sox  92.3  69.7  32.9%  20.1%  -2.7   -39    -27
Rays     91.7  70.3  31.3%  19.3%   7.7    15    -48
Yankees  90.4  71.6  27.7%  19.4% -12.6   -38     19

CAIRO

          W     L     DIV    WC    W+/-   RS+/-  RA+/-
Yankees  97.7  64.3  41.1%  24.1%  -5.3   -34    -45
Rays     94.2  67.8  29.5%  24.4%  10.2   -20    -99
Red Sox  93.9  68.1  27.6%  24.6%  -1.1   -48    -51

Overall

          W     L     DIV    WC    W+/-   RS+/-  RA+/-
Yankees  96.1  65.9  40.7%  22.3%  -6.9   -20    -19
Red Sox  92.9  69.1  30.3%  22.7%  -2.1   -51    -40
Rays     91.2  70.8  25.4%  20.7%   7.2     7    -48

PECOTA projects the Red Sox as East winners -- while still seeing them as three games worse than 2009 -- but that is more due to a huge drop-off from Yankees. Also, its data is only as of February 15. And just about everyone has the Rays (19 GB) back in the fight.

RLYW likes pie charts:
SG says the Yankees' usual risk is "their continued reliance on players in their mid 30s and their ability to both stay healthy and be productive" -- Posada is 38, Jeter turns 36 in June, and Rivera is 40 -- but "that's generally worked out pretty well most of the time".