W-L Contest - Fun With Pythag

A little while after contest entries started coming in, I realized that everyone was submitting (mostly likely without knowing it) two W-L guesses.

The second guess could be determined by the tiebreaker choices. With the runs scored and run differential, I could get a guess of runs allowed. Then, using good old Pythag, I could determine an expected W-L and compare it to the contestant's actual W-L guess. Fun!

Here is everyone's actual W-L submission, in the same order as posted before the season began, and the expected amount of Red Sox wins according to each person's RS/RunDiff guesses.

I predicted 98 wins, but my other guesses worked out to only 93 wins. Could that be seen as a "truer" measure of how I think the team will do?

          ACTUAL W-L    PYTHAG WINS FROM
          PREDICTION   TIEBREAKER GUESSES
Rick F      100-62            98.7
Jere S      100-62            98.7
  
Edward N     99-63           100.8
Justin M     99-63            93.5
Matthew K    99-63            99.1
  
Steve S      98-64            96.9
9casey       98-64            96.7
Tim B        98-64            97.5
Ofer C       98-64           101.9
Joe G        98-64            97.2
Sean O       98-64            98.3
Allan W      98-64            93.3
Geoffrey W   98-64            97.2
  
Jonathan A   97-65            95.6
Franco B     97-65            96.4
Rich G       97-65            95.4
James C      97-65            98.0
Andrew B     97-65            98.0
John Q       97-65            91.4
  
Tim L        96-66            97.0
Richard L    96-66            99.1
Jeff L       96-66            95.1
Matthew B    96-66           100.0
Steve T      96-66            95.9
Dan C        96-66            94.6
  
Joel F       95-67            91.7
Ignacio C    95-67           112.8
  
Philip H     94-68           101.9
  
Matt M       93-69           101.6
Lewis S      93-69            95.4
  
Jeff R       90-72            95.1
  
Peter L      89-73            89.4