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May 8, 2010

Why They Know What Isn't So

Why do people continue believing something is true long after its accuracy has been disproved (or when it wasn't true in the first place)?

Kevin Kernan, Post:
If the Red Sox can't get Beckett straightened out, they have bigger problems than anyone could have imagined. Their offense is already a question mark.
The 2010 Red Sox*:
RS          - 3rd in AL, 7th in MLB
RS/G        - 4th in AL, 8th in MLB
AVG         - 3rd in AL, 5th in MLB
OBP         - 4th in AL, 5th in MLB
SLG         - 1st in AL, 2nd in MLB
OPS         - 2nd in AL, 3rd in MLB
OPS+        - Tied for 2nd in AL and MLB
Total Bases - 2nd in AL and MLB (3 fewer than TOR)
*: Of course, the usual caveats apply, e.g., the Sox have had a couple of very high-scoring games (17, 13, 11), which inflates the average, especially after only 30 games.

Boston's team OPS is .811, not too far behind New York's .822. Only one other team is over .800. It is undeniable that the Red Sox are getting on base and slugging the ball better than almost any team in baseball. In fact, with men on base, they are hitting better than the Yankees, although they are weaker with RATS.
              NYY               BOS
Men On  .265/.357/.416    .274/.357/.467
RATS    .284/.384/.473    .280/.373/.457
In fact, Boston is doing all that hitting with two of its starting outfielders on the DL, a DH who is not H-ing much at all, and lower-than-expected production from its right fielder and catcher. The bats are not the problem, Kevin.

P.S. I do not have access to any fancy or secret information. You can find almost all of it right here.
Example
Jamie Moyer became the the oldest pitcher in history to throw a complete game shutout: 9-2-0-0-5, 105 last night against Atlanta.
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10 comments:

  1. nickMay 8, 2010 at 11:31 AM

    You may not have access to any fancy or secret information, but you've got access to common sense, a reasonable amount of skepticism, and a willingness to do some damn research. Heck, throw out either (or both) of the first two and you're still ahead.

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  2. KenMay 8, 2010 at 4:47 PM

    Those stats look nice and all.... but here's an interesting stat:

    Number of games scoring 2 runs or less:

    NYY - 1
    TB - 4
    TOR - 6
    BAL - 13
    BOS - 13

    That's just the AL East. I didn't look at the Central or West, but I did look at Seattle (worst offense in the AL) who also has 13 games with 2 or fewer runs. Baltimore and Seattle are not the company you want to be in.

    ReplyDelete
  3. allanMay 8, 2010 at 4:59 PM

    .... but here's an interesting stat

    Interesting ... and wrong.

    Boston has has 10 games of 2 runs or fewer, not 13.

    P.S.: Tampa Bay has had 5 games, not 4. (Today was #6.)

    ReplyDelete
  4. allanMay 8, 2010 at 5:04 PM

    The actual numbers, before today's games:

    Games scoring 0-2 runs:
    TBR - 5
    NYY - 1
    TOR - 6
    BOS - 10
    BAL - 13

    Games scoring 0-3 runs:
    TBR - 7
    NYY - 5
    TOR - 12
    BOS - 13
    BAL - 19

    Games scoring 0-4 runs:
    TBR - 11
    NYY - 11
    TOR - 15
    BOS - 16
    BAL - 19

    ReplyDelete
  5. KenMay 8, 2010 at 5:55 PM

    After 30 games most of these stats are inflated by a small number of outliers (see LAA series... 53 hits, 36 runs).

    Right now the Sox are about the 3rd or 4th best offense in the AL East when it comes to consistently scoring runs. So...... 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd - moot.

    In each series they score 2 runs or fewer in at least one game... and half of those series would include a 2 run (or less) and a 4 run (or less) game. Not good when your ERA is 4.85 (and rising).

    ReplyDelete
  6. allanMay 8, 2010 at 6:32 PM

    It is not moot. It is directly on point.

    I was replying to Kernan's comment in which he states the offense is already a concern.

    Through 30 games, I disagree. (It ain't perfect, but it is hardly a serious problem considering injuries and uncharacteristic slow starts.)

    That's it.

    ReplyDelete
  7. RedSoxDiehardMay 8, 2010 at 7:47 PM

    What's RATS?

    ReplyDelete
  8. BklynSoxFanMay 8, 2010 at 7:47 PM

    Nobody ever said sportswriters (especially ones from New York) were smart.

    ReplyDelete
  9. laura kMay 8, 2010 at 8:03 PM

    RATS = JoSpeak for RISP, the more accurate Runners At Third [and] Second

    ReplyDelete
  10. RedSoxDiehardMay 9, 2010 at 5:39 PM

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete