[I]t's time to present my annual Diamond Mind Projection blowout. The idea behind this is to take several projection systems and run the 2011 season multiple times through Diamond Mind Baseball, which I consider to be the most statistically accurate baseball simulator available. ...SG further explains, using the Tigers as an example:
Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. ... Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match actual 2011 playing time. ... We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. ... These are not meant to tell you how the season is going to play out. ... These are the averages of hundreds of thousands of simulated seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean. The final standings will not look like this, because they only play the season once. ...
One thing I need to note, since it may not be obvious. Those standings are NOT saying the Tigers are going to win the AL Central with 84.6 wins. They are saying the Tigers projected to win the AL Central most frequently (31.2% of the time) and that they averaged 84.6 wins. Those are two separate things. In order to actually win the division, the AL Central winner had to win 90 games on average.The winner of the AL East averaged 98 wins. The AL wild card winner averaged 92 wins.
While SG posted the projections for all six divisions, I'm including only the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays here.
Bill James Edition
W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/-RA+/-Red Sox 95.2 66.8 796 667 40.0% 19.8% 59.7% 6.2 -22 -77 Yankees 94.2 67.8 817 698 36.4% 20.4% 56.9% -0.8 -42 5 Rays 87.3 74.7 775 703 14.8% 14.9% 29.7% -8.7 -27 54CAIRO
W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/-RA+/-Red Sox 95.8 66.2 826 684 42.8% 18.7% 61.5% 6.8 8 -60 Yankees 93.1 68.9 821 713 31.7% 19.4% 51.1% -1.9 -38 20 Rays 87.6 74.4 734 660 17.8% 14.9% 32.7% -8.4 -68 11Marcel
W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/-RA+/-Red Sox 91.6 70.4 841 734 40.0% 14.4% 54.4% 2.6 23 -10 Yankees 89.0 73.0 785 711 28.5% 14.1% 42.5% -6.0 -74 18 Rays 85.3 76.7 747 699 19.2% 11.5% 30.7% -10.7 -55 50Oliver
W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/-RA+/-Red Sox 95.4 66.6 813 672 46.5% 18.3% 64.8% 6.4 -5 -72 Yankees 93.5 68.5 801 682 36.6% 19.1% 55.7% -1.5 -58 -11 Rays 83.2 78.8 787 759 10.7% 10.6% 21.3% -12.8 -15 110PECOTA
W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/-RA+/-Red Sox 94.1 67.9 809 681 41.1% 17.7% 58.8% 5.1 -9 -63 Yankees 92.1 69.9 835 730 31.0% 18.1% 49.0% -2.9 -24 37 Rays 87.0 75.0 765 700 17.5% 15.0% 32.5% -9.0 -37 51Diamond Mind (cumulative)
W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/-RA+/-Red Sox 94.4 67.6 817 687 42.1% 17.8% 59.8% 5.4 -1 -57 Yankees 92.4 69.6 812 707 32.8% 18.2% 51.0% -2.6 -47 14 Rays 86.1 75.9 762 704 16.0% 13.4% 29.4% -9.9 -40 55SG also offers general comments on each team, and why they might be better (or worse) than projected.
And pie charts!
anyone with this at the top of their blog has their priorities in the right place -
ReplyDeleteThe Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
It has been 511 days, 18 hours, 59 minutes, and 20 seconds since the New York Yankees have won a World Series.
I understand the difference between projections and reality, but these projections seem closer to the truth of what the season will hold. All the "on paper" advantages factored in, the Sox are only a slightly better possibility than the Yanks and Rays to wipe the floor with their AL East rivals. 100 wins is a pipe dream.
ReplyDeleteThat said...Go Sox! 97 wins, the division, the pennant, and the Series!