RLYW Projection Outblow

SG, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog (my bold):

[I]t's time to present my annual Diamond Mind Projection blowout. The idea behind this is to take several projection systems and run the 2011 season multiple times through Diamond Mind Baseball, which I consider to be the most statistically accurate baseball simulator available. ...

Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. ... Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match actual 2011 playing time. ... We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. ... These are not meant to tell you how the season is going to play out. ... These are the averages of hundreds of thousands of simulated seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean. The final standings will not look like this, because they only play the season once. ...

SG further explains, using the Tigers as an example:

One thing I need to note, since it may not be obvious. Those standings are NOT saying the Tigers are going to win the AL Central with 84.6 wins. They are saying the Tigers projected to win the AL Central most frequently (31.2% of the time) and that they averaged 84.6 wins. Those are two separate things. In order to actually win the division, the AL Central winner had to win 90 games on average.

The winner of the AL East averaged 98 wins. The AL wild card winner averaged 92 wins.

While SG posted the projections for all six divisions, I'm including only the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays here.

Bill James Edition

           W     L     RS   RA   Div    WC     PL    W+/-  RS+/-RA+/-
Red Sox   95.2  66.8  796  667  40.0%  19.8%  59.7%   6.2  -22  -77
Yankees   94.2  67.8  817  698  36.4%  20.4%  56.9%  -0.8  -42    5
Rays      87.3  74.7  775  703  14.8%  14.9%  29.7%  -8.7  -27   54

CAIRO

           W     L     RS   RA   Div    WC     PL    W+/-  RS+/-RA+/-
Red Sox   95.8  66.2  826  684  42.8%  18.7%  61.5%   6.8    8  -60
Yankees   93.1  68.9  821  713  31.7%  19.4%  51.1%  -1.9  -38   20
Rays      87.6  74.4  734  660  17.8%  14.9%  32.7%  -8.4  -68   11

Marcel

           W     L     RS   RA   Div    WC     PL    W+/-  RS+/-RA+/-
Red Sox   91.6  70.4  841  734  40.0%  14.4%  54.4%   2.6   23  -10
Yankees   89.0  73.0  785  711  28.5%  14.1%  42.5%  -6.0  -74   18
Rays      85.3  76.7  747  699  19.2%  11.5%  30.7% -10.7  -55   50

Oliver

           W     L     RS   RA   Div    WC     PL    W+/-  RS+/-RA+/-
Red Sox   95.4  66.6  813  672  46.5%  18.3%  64.8%   6.4   -5  -72
Yankees   93.5  68.5  801  682  36.6%  19.1%  55.7%  -1.5  -58  -11
Rays      83.2  78.8  787  759  10.7%  10.6%  21.3% -12.8  -15  110

PECOTA

           W     L     RS   RA   Div    WC     PL    W+/-  RS+/-RA+/-
Red Sox   94.1  67.9  809  681  41.1%  17.7%  58.8%   5.1   -9  -63
Yankees   92.1  69.9  835  730  31.0%  18.1%  49.0%  -2.9  -24   37
Rays      87.0  75.0  765  700  17.5%  15.0%  32.5%  -9.0  -37   51

Diamond Mind (cumulative)

           W     L     RS   RA   Div    WC     PL    W+/-  RS+/-RA+/-
Red Sox   94.4  67.6  817  687  42.1%  17.8%  59.8%   5.4   -1  -57
Yankees   92.4  69.6  812  707  32.8%  18.2%  51.0%  -2.6  -47   14
Rays      86.1  75.9  762  704  16.0%  13.4%  29.4%  -9.9  -40   55

SG also offers general comments on each team, and why they might be better (or worse) than projected.

And pie charts!