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April 26, 2011

Red Sox Starters Are Pitching Like It's 1918

Over the last nine games, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 0.88.
                         IP  H  R ER BB  K  BF  PIT  Game
0416 vs Tor  Beckett    7.0  3  1  1  2  9  26  101  Win 4-1
0417 vs Tor  Lester     6.0  6  1  1  3  5  25  110  Win 8-1
0418 vs Tor  Matsuzaka  7.0  1  0  0  1  3  23   89  Win 9-1
0419 at Oak  Lackey     6.0  4  1  1  1  3  23   93  Loss 0-5
0420 at Oak  Buchholz   5.1  6  1  1  4  2  26  102  Win 5-3
0421 at LAA  Beckett    8.0  3  2  2  2  5  28  125  Win 4-2 (11)
0422 at LAA  Lester     6.0  4  0  0  2  8  23  111  Win 4-3
0423 at LAA  Matsuzaka  8.0  1  0  0  3  9  28  115  Win 5-0
0424 at LAA  Lackey     8.0  6  0  0  1  6  32  108  Win 7-0
                       61.1 34  6  6 19 50 - 0.88 ERA - 0.86 WHIP
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, it is the lowest ERA for Red Sox starters over any nine-game span since July 1918 (0.84).

I have box scores for the entire 1918 season (of course), so here are the games, all of which were played at Fenway Park:
                             IP  H  R BB  K  Game
0715 vs White Sox  Carl Mays  9  5  1  2  3  Won 3-1
0716 vs Browns     Sam Jones  9  4  1  3  1  Won 2-1
0717 vs Browns     Joe Bush   9  7  0  3  4  Won 7-0 
                   Babe Ruth  5  4  0  1  2  Won 4-0 (rain-shortened)
0718 vs Browns     Lore Bader 6 10  5  4  1  Lost 3-6
0719 vs Tigers     Carl Mays  9  3  0  1  2  Won 5-0
0720 vs Tigers     Sam Jones  9  5  1  1  1  Won 5-1
0722 vs Tigers     Joe Bush  10  5  0  2  6  Won 1-0 (10)
                   Carl Mays  9  4  0  1  ?  Won 3-0
In 75 innings, the starters allowed nine runs (seven earned) for an ERA of 0.84. The two unearned runs likely came in Bader's game.

By the way, earlier in the month:
July 8: Boston beat Cleveland 1-0 (10) and lost 3-4
July 9: Boston beat Cleveland 1-0 (12)
July 10: Boston beat Cleveland 2-0 (5, rain)
July 11: Boston beat Chicago 4-0
In 2011, the starters have these stats for the nine-game run:

                        IP   H  R ER BB   K    ERA
             Matsuzaka 15.0  2  0  0  4  12   0.00
             Beckett   15.0  6  3  3  4  14   1.80
             Lackey    14.0 10  1  1  2   9   0.64
             Lester    12.0 10  1  1  5  13   0.75
             Buchholz   5.1  6  1  1  4   2   1.69

                 Games 1-12   Games 13-21 
Starters ERA         6.71         0.88
Opp AVG              .281         .159
Opp AVG w/RATS       .317         .030
Team W-L Record      2-10          8-1
That .030 average? On April 16 - the day the streak began - Josh Beckett allowed a single to Travis Snider with a man on second. Since then, opponents are 0-for-32 with runners at third and/or second.

In a SoSH thread entitled The Turnaround of the Starting Pitchers - A Historical Perspective, BroodsSexton asks: "Is there anything that comes close in terms of variation in a team's performance over a similar time frame? It's not just the incredible suck that the Sox displayed to start the season, or the dominance of the last ten games. It's the juxtaposition that is so amazing to me."

I cannot answer his question, but I'm equally stunned that everything was going wrong for the starters until April 16 and then, as if someone flicked a switch, suddenly they began pitching like a quintet of aces.

19 comments:

  1. RATS = Runners At Third and/or Second? Isn't this the same as RISP?

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  2. Yes.

    But I think it's a more accurate description.

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  3. True, because you can score from any base, including first (and I guess home if you count the batter?).

    Back to the point, it is astounding how well the starters have pitched. I've seen some impressive WINNING streaks, but even with a loss thrown in the mix here, the dominance has just been unbelieveable. I can't imagine that it will last all season but it certainly gives cause for concern to other teams if the Sox make the post-season.

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  4. ProJo: "Boston hasn’t seen its starters go five or more innings allowing two or fewer runs in nine straight games since 1946. ... Even that stretch from August 30 to Sept. 6, 1946, isn’t quite as good as this one. Starters Tex Hughson, Jim Bagby, Bill Zuber, Joe Dobson, Dave Ferriss and Mickey Harris combined for a 1.43 ERA during those nine games, of which the Sox also won eight."

    Last year's Giants had 13 straight games in which the starter pitched 5+ innings and allowed two or fewer runs. Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Matt Cain had a 1.29 ERA in 77 innings.

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  5. True, because you can score from any base, including first (and I guess home if you count the batter?).

    And you don't always score from second on a single.

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  6. "a quintet of aces"

    This is our tagline for the year!

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  7. True, because you can score from any base, including first (and I guess home if you count the batter?).

    That's exactly why the expression "RISP" drives some of us nuts.

    If you watch a game with someone who has never seen baseball before, and you try to explain "RISP", you realize it's completely inaccurate. We all know that a runner can score from any base.

    And definitely count the batter, because he is a runner, too, and he can obviously score from the plate. We see it all the time and keep endless statistics on just that very thing.

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  8. And definitely count the batter, because he is a runner, too, and he can obviously score from the plate. We see it all the time and keep endless statistics on just that very thing.

    So now my curiosity is piqued on just what the definition of a runner is. ;-)

    I decided to check out the Baseball Field Guide that Allan referenced a couple years ago in one of his posts. The Guide showcases the rules of baseball in plain English. An excellent investment!!!

    According to the Overview section on page 105 (2008 Edition), "once a batter has successfully reached base, he becomes a runner."

    Upon further review, on the previous page, there is a note that reads: "The official rules refer to a batter on his way to first base as a batter-runner. This somewhat awkward term is used... to distinguish a batter who has just become a runner from the other runners."

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  9. Retrosheet's got that 7/22/1918 box and shows 6 K for Mays.

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  10. A few more of the retrosheet #s from the 1918 games don't match yours. I only see one unearned run in that stretch in their boxes (it was the Bader game).

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  11. Okay, I see, I think you just added that runs column wrong? Should be 8 runs, 7 earned, which matches retrosheet. (But there still are differences between yours and theirs, like Joe Bush's Ks in game one on 7/22.)

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  12. FenFan, thanks for that! I've never heard batter-runner, have you?

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  13. I used box scores from the actual newspapers, which I know are not necessarily 100% accurate. But they are in this case.

    Any errors between my post and Retrosheet (which very recently added the 1918 boxes) are typos by me.

    The Herald-Journal box has 6K for Bush on 7/22. The hits allowed by Jones on 7/20 are indeed 7. And my addition of that RA column was also off and should be 8. So those are all corrected now!

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  14. I decided to check out the Baseball Field Guide that Allan referenced a couple years ago in one of his posts. The Guide showcases the rules of baseball in plain English. An excellent investment!!!

    You got it after my review (which was in October 2008)?

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  15. batter-runner

    For a short time at the beginning of the 1973 season, some writers referred to the DH as a "designated pinch-hitter" or DPH.

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  16. I used box scores from the actual newspapers

    That's pretty cool, considering it was more than 90 years ago. Not many people could do that, I think!

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  17. FenFan, thanks for that! I've never heard batter-runner, have you?

    No, that was a new term to me!

    >>I decided to check out the Baseball Field Guide that Allan referenced a couple years ago in one of his posts. The Guide showcases the rules of baseball in plain English. An excellent investment!!!

    You got it after my review (which was in October 2008)?


    Yep! I saw your review, went to my local book store to give it a quick glance, and my wife bought a copy for me for Christmas that year. I can't recommend it enough. Beside Allan's review, you can also check out more at baseballfieldguide.com. Funny, I just checked it out and the first review excerpt is from The Joy of Sox. :-)

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  18. Sound familiar? An excerpt from a comment I made on your original post:

    This book sounds like a good one, Allan. I'll put that on my Christmas wish list.

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  19. Lore Bader suckkkked. I woulda called him MasterBader of course.

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