The average number of wins in the simulations for four of the five AL East team are remarkably similar - only three wins separate the first and fourth place finishers! - as shown on BP's Playoff Odds chart:
April 2, 2016
BP: Red Sox Should Win Between 55 and 115 Games
Baseball Prospectus ran 1,000,000 simulations of the 2016 season. The worst Red Sox team went 55-107 and the best team had a 115-47 record. So anything between 55 and 115 wins is within the realm of probability.
The average number of wins in the simulations for four of the five AL East team are remarkably similar - only three wins separate the first and fourth place finishers! - as shown on BP's Playoff Odds chart:
The average number of wins in the simulations for four of the five AL East team are remarkably similar - only three wins separate the first and fourth place finishers! - as shown on BP's Playoff Odds chart:
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Top 4 WS %
Cleveland - 12.8
Dodgers - 12.6
Cubs - 12.3
Mets - 9.4
Alternative headline: All Teams Will Win between 55 and 115 Games.
Probably!
In 1 of the 1,000,000 sims, the Mets won 123 games!
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