In other words, Boston will go from finishing eight games ahead of the Yankees last year to ending up nine games behind them in 2019. Needless to say, I do not share Leitch's outlook.
It's easy to forget this now, but heading into last season, it was the Yankees, not the Red Sox, who were widely considered the heavy favorite in the American League East. In fact, picking Boston to win the division became a sort-of indicator of hipster contrarianism; sure, the Yankees just brought in Giancarlo Stanton, but Boston might be pretty good too ...Two other bits: The Blue Jays had five sacrifice bunts last year - the fewest since 1894, when sacrifice bunts were first counted. (They had only two in their first 105 games.) Three other teams had fewer than 10 sac bunts in 2018: Athletics 6, Angels 7, Red Sox 7. "Can they get it down to four? Three? Absolute zero?" ... Rays manager Kevin Cash says his rotation will consist of three starters and two openers.
It turned out that Boston was indeed quite good: 108 wins, the most in franchise history, and a blitz through the playoffs, losing just three postseason games en route to its fourth World Series title in the last 14 years. The 2018 Boston Red Sox were one of the best teams of your lifetime. All that's left for them to assure their immortality is to go out and win another one, becoming the first team this century to repeat.
Yet you still see the Yankees as a popular offseason pick to win the division, thanks largely to their additions and, mostly, the lack thereof from the Red Sox. That's how good the AL East is: A team wins 108 games, coasts to a title and brings everybody back ... and it still isn't the popular pick to win the division. ...
Boston Red Sox
Can they keep the party going? ...
While the Yankees went out and secured what could be one of the deepest bullpens in recent baseball history, the Red Sox waved goodbye to Joe Kelly and (apparently) Craig Kimbrel and have replaced them with ... no one. Seriously, the bullpen was the Sox's major worry last season, and they've brought back the same 'pen minus its two best October pieces. There's some debate as to whom the closer will be ... But frankly, just getting to the closer looks like a challenge here. ... [I]f the Red Sox struggle this year, this will be why.
The Red Sox offense was ludicrous in 2018, and most of their stars are either entering or are smack in the middle of their primes. The top four of Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts is a gauntlet no pitcher wants to see to start a game ...
But things go sideways during a season sometimes, particularly because of injury. What do the Red Sox do if any of their stars go down, either in the lineup or the rotation? They're insanely good, but they're not deep enough to withstand multiple injuries. ... Everything went right for the Red Sox last year. But it doesn't usually go that smoothly.
New York Yankees
The much-hyped combination of Judge and Giancarlo Stanton (and Gary Sanchez) didn't get to fully play out last year, largely because injuries limited Judge to 112 games. ... -[I]f he can get back to 150 games, the Yankees can be the Yankees they were supposed to be all along. ... Considering the Yankees still won 100 games last year, they could be leaping into quite rareified air indeed.
The Yankees have gone an unusually long time without a true shutdown ace ... [I]t'd sure be nice if [James Paxton] were the 2017, 2.98 ERA Paxton rather than the 2018, 3.76 ERA version. The good news is that his strikeout rate went up last year while his walk rate stayed steady; it's his home run rate going up that hurt him. ...
The Yankees have, oh, seven bullpen arms who would instantly become the best reliever on almost any other team in the sport. ... If you're behind by more than two runs in the fifth inning, you may already be toast. ... You can't entirely eliminate bullpen volatility. But the Yankees sure have come close.
Predicted standings
New York Yankees 104- 58 Boston Red Sox 95- 67 Tampa Bay Rays 90- 72 Toronto Blue Jays 72- 90 Baltimore Orioles 50-112
Okay, actually three bits ... but that's my next post.
Is Leitch fucking kidding?
ReplyDelete"sure, the Yankees just brought in Giancarlo Stanton, but Boston might be pretty good too"
Yeah, that's what people said *before* the Red Sox brought in a hitter who's BETTER than Stanton! It was almost like people didn't consider that because he signed late and people had already made their predictions.
It's easy to forget this now, but heading into last season, it was the Yankees, not the Red Sox, who were widely considered the heavy favorite in the American League East.
ReplyDeleteNo, I remember quite clearly that nearly even preseason prognosticator had the MFY winning 200 games, all while Judge and Stanton combined to clobber 200 home runs. Go ahead, though, bet against the Red Sox again; it always seems to work in our favor.