Last February, Will Leitch (MLB.com) seemed certain that the 2019 Yankees would have "the best bullpen ever".
Leitch stated the Yankees possessed seven relievers "who would instantly become the best reliever on almost any other team" (though he could name only six pitchers to fit this highly dubious claim). The 2019 Yankees would be "shortening the game to an absurd level". This disparity would be "downright unfair" to their opponents. Leitch proclaimed: "If you're behind by more than two runs in the fifth inning, you may already be toast."
Naturally, I objected to this nonsense and confidently offered my own prediction: New York's record with a lead of more than two runs in the fifth inning would "not be some shocking historical outlier when compared to the other top teams in MLB".
Based on the American League teams with the lowest bullpen ERAs in 2018, I tracked five teams - Boston, New York, Cleveland, Houston, Tampa Bay - in 2019.
First, here are the top five AL bullpen ERAs for 2019:
Rays 3.66 Cleveland 3.67 Astros 3.75 Athletics 3.89 Yankees 4.08The Red Sox finished ninth (4.40), right at the league average (4.41).
Here are the AL's top seven teams in lowest bullpen OBP, SLG, and OPS for 2019 (ranked by OPS):
OBP SLG OPS Rays .294 .386 .680 Astros .283 .397 .681 Athletics .308 .404 .712 Cleveland .304 .419 .723 Twins .316 .419 .736 Yankees .314 .439 .754 Red Sox .330 .431 .761 AL Average .324 .441 .765 NL Average .315 .420 .735 MLB Average .319 .431 .750The Red Sox and Athletics led the AL with 31 blown saves, followed by the Mariners (29), Yankees (28), and Rays/Orioles (27). The Astros were 10th (20 blown saves) and Cleveland was tied for 11th (16).
Here are the five teams' records in 2019. I also included the 2018 Red Sox and the 1998 Yankees because I was curious what the numbers would look like in a season when almost everything went right.
Record At Start Of Fifth Inning When
Up by 1 Up by 2 Up by 3 Up by 4 Up by 5 Up by 6+ Up by 2+ Tied Trailing
Red Sox 15-6 11-6 11-1 8-0 4-1 8-0 42-8 13-10 14-54
Yankees 13-7 22-4 13-1 7-1 3-0 14-0 59-6 17- 8 13-39
Rays 26-8 15-5 9-0 9-0 3-0 7-1 43-6 12-11 15-41
Astros 25-9 17-2 8-0 6-0 6-0 14-0 51-2 14- 9 17-35
Cleveland 14-4 19-2 8-2 8-0 5-0 8-1 48-5 21-11 10-49
2018 Red Sox 14-3 13-1 11-3 4-0 6-0 12-0 46-4 25- 6 23-41
1998 Yankees 21-3 19-3 10-5 8-0 7-0 11-0 55-8 23-10 16-27
Record When Leading By 2+ Runs After Four InningsAstros 51-2 .962 2018 Red Sox 46-4 .920 Yankees 59-6 .908 Cleveland 48-5 .906 Rays 43-6 .878 1998 Yankees 55-8 .873 Red Sox 42-8 .840Record When Leading By 3+ Runs After Four Innings
Astros 34-0 1.000 Rays 28-1 .966 Yankees 37-2 .949 Red Sox 31-2 .939 2018 Red Sox 33-3 .917 Cleveland 29-3 .906 1998 Yankees 36-5 .878Record When Trailing After Four Innings
1998 Yankees 16-27 .381 2018 Red Sox 23-41 .359 Astros 17-35 .327 Rays 15-41 .268 Yankees 13-39 .250 Red Sox 14-54 .206 Cleveland 10-49 .169Record After X Inning (Regardless Of Score)
After 5 After 6 After 7 After 8 Red Sox 67-9 70-9 72-9 68-4 Yankees 83-9 87-7 90-2 90-1 Rays 74-7 76-5 81-4 81-3 Astros 83-6 91-6 94-3 96-2 Cleveland 66-7 74-8 78-5 82-3 2018 Red Sox 78-7 84-6 90-4 97-1 1998 Yankees 85-9 91-7 93-1 102-1Notes:
As expected, the 2019 Yankees' bullpen was nowhere near Leitch's mythical seven-headed monster. In fact, his prediction took a beating immediately after Opening Day.
In G2, the Yankees led the Orioles 1-0 in the fifth before losing 5-3. In G5, they led the Tigers 1-0 in the fifth, were tied 1-1 after eight, and lost 3-1. In G6, they were tied 1-1 with the Tigers after seven innings and lost 2-1. So this supposedly invincible bullpen blew three leads in the first week of the season. ... Shortly thereafter, they led the Astros 3-1 after seven innings in G10 and lost 4-3. In G13, they led the White Sox 4-1 after three, 5-3 after four, and lost 9-6.
In a five-game stretch in late April, the Yankees' bullpen faltered four times, but the offense bailed them out. In G21, they blew a 6-0 lead to the Royals in the eighth inning, but won 7-6 in 10 innings. In G22, they gave up a run to the Angels in the bottom of the 12th inning, but won in 14. In G23, they led the Angels 7-1 in the eighth before allowing four runs, holding on to win 7-5. In G25, they led the Angels 4-0 in the fifth and ended up being blown out 11-5.
There was another problematic five-game stretch in early July. In G83, the Yankees led the Mets 2-1 before allowing three runs in the eighth, losing 4-2. In G85, they led the Rays 3-1, gave up two runs in the bottom of the ninth, rallied for five runs in the T10 and won 8-4 (though they allowed one run in the B10 and the Rays left the bases loaded). In G86, they led the Rays 3-1 in the fifth, blew a late lead, and won in 11. In G87, they led the Rays 1-0 and 2-1, and were tied 3-3 before losing 4-3 on a ninth-inning walkoff.
Needless to say, these were not the MFY's bullpen's only embarrassments during the season (see picture above).
In his specific situation (up by more than two runs in the fifth, or "leading by 3+ runs" above), both the Astros and Rays had a higher winning percentage than the Yankees - and the Red Sox (who finished with 19 more losses overall than New York) lost the same number of games (two).
The 2019 Red Sox actually rallied and won more games than the Yankees when trailing after four innings. The Red Sox had a better record than the Yankees when leading by one run after four innings and both teams lost the same number of games when leading after five innings. Indeed, the Yankees had the worst record among the five teams when leading by one run after four and New York was the only team to hold a four-run lead after four innings and lose.
Also: Cleveland lost its first seven games when trailing after four innings and were 1-22 in such games through June 4. But Cleveland did not lose a game it led by 2+ runs after four innings until July 12. ... The Rays' first loss after leading after four innings came in G20 (13-0). At one point, they were 29-2 in those instances. ... The Red Sox trailed after four innings in each of their first 10 games of the season. They did not have a lead after four innings until G14. They were 4-9 in the first 13 games.
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