April 17, 2020

Baseball Scores That Have Never Happened

On August 20, 2018, Jeremy Frank posted a graph to Twitter that showed how often each possible score had happened in a baseball game (since 1871).


Sidebar: Frank's Twitter page (@MLBRandomStats) includes numerous interesting experiments, including simulating an entire current season with every outfield fence 100 feet tall, how many games could a team of 25 Barry Bonds (including pitcher and catcher) win, and what would Babe Ruth's 1921 season look like if he played his games in a ballpark with a 100-foot tall fence that was 450 feet from home all around.

Ruth hit .467/.575/.901, ending the season with a 40-game hit streak. He pounded 81 doubles, 28 triples, and 41 home runs. ... Knowing the deepest part of any current major league park is 421 feet (San Francisco), with Detroit and Boston having posted distances of 420 feet, how in the world did "1921 Ruth" crush 41 balls that cleared a 100-foot fence that was 450 feet away?!? (I'm about 25% convinced that Ruth was from another planet.)

Anyway. ... The most common scores have been 3-2 (11,976 games), 4-3 (11,560 games), 2-1 (9,771 games), 5-4 (9,102 games), and 4-2 (7,708 games).

The most common postseason scores (since 1903) is an extremely similar list: 3-2 (104 games), 2-1 (95 games), 4-3 (88 games), 3-1 (71 games), and 5-4 (63 games).

There have been 4,864 regular season games ending 1-0. ... There have been 132 games with a 16-4 score. ... A score of 14-13 has happened 57 times. ... Fifteen games have ended 20-7. ... Scores of 26-3 and 29-4 have each happened four times. ... There was one 19-19 tie.

From the chart, you can compile a list of scores that have never happened. (I would say the most likely scores to eventually happen for the first time are: 23-11, 22-12, 22-15, 25-9.

There have been scores of 23-1 to 23-15, except 23-11.

There have been scores of 22-1 to 22-16, except 22-12 and 22-15.

Baseball has never seen a 25-0 game (but there have been three 24-0 games), but every score from 25-1 to 25-13 has happened, with the exception of 25-9.

Baseball Scores That Have Never Happened

25-0, 26-0, 27-0, 30-0, 31-0, 32-0, etc.
26-1, 27-1, 28-1, 30-1, 31-1, 32-1, 33-1, 34-1, 36-1, 37-1, 39-1, 40-1, 41-1, etc.
27-2, 28-2, 29-3, etc.
29-3, 31-3, 33-3, 34-3, 35-3, etc.
27-4, 28-4, 30-4, 31-4, 32-4, 33-4, 34-4, 36-4, 37-4, 38-4, etc.
29-5, 30-5, 31-5, etc.
27-6, 30-6, 31-6, 32-6, etc.
29-7, 32-7, 33-7, 34-7, 35-7, 37-7, 38-7, 39-7, etc.
28-8, 29-8, 31-8, 32-8, 33-8, etc.
25-9, 28-9, 29-9, 31-9, 32-9, 33-9, etc.
26-10, 29-10, 30-10, 32-10, 33-10, 34-10, etc.
23-11, 26-11, 29-11, 30-11, 31-11, etc.
22-12, 23-12, 24-12, etc.
24-13, 25-13, 26-13, etc.
24-14, 25-14, 26-14, etc.
15-15, 22-15, 24-15, 25-15, 26-15, etc.
23-16, 25-16, 26-16, 27-16, etc.
17-17, 22-17, 23-17, 24-18, etc.
18-18, 21-18, 22-18, 23-18, etc.
21-19, 22-19, 23-19, etc.
20-20, 21-20, 22-20, etc.
21-21, 23-21, 24-21, 25-21, etc.
22-22, 24-22, 25-22, 26-22, etc.
23-23, 24-23, 25-23, 27-23, 29-23, 30-23, 31-23, etc.
and
All games with 24 or more runs allowed, except 49-33!

No comments: