April 17, 2020

Baseball Scores That Have Never Happened

On August 20, 2018, Jeremy Frank posted a graph to Twitter that showed how often each possible score had happened in a baseball game (since 1871).


Sidebar: Frank's Twitter page (@MLBRandomStats) includes numerous interesting experiments, including simulating an entire current season with every outfield fence 100 feet tall, how many games could a team of 25 Barry Bonds (including pitcher and catcher) win, and what would Babe Ruth's 1921 season look like if he played his games in a ballpark with a 100-foot tall fence that was 450 feet from home all around.

Anyway. ... The most common scores have been 3-2 (11,976 games), 4-3 (11,560 games), 2-1 (9,771 games), 5-4 (9,102 games), and 4-2 (7,708 games).

The most common postseason scores (since 1903) is an extremely similar list: 3-2 (104 games), 2-1 (95 games), 4-3 (88 games), 3-1 (71 games), and 5-4 (63 games).

There have been 4,864 regular season games ending 1-0. ... There have been 132 games with a 16-4 score. ... A score of 14-13 has happened 57 times. ... Fifteen games have ended 20-7. ... Scores of 26-3 and 29-4 have each happened four times. ... There was one 19-19 tie.

From the chart, you can compile a list of scores that have never happened. (I would say the most likely scores to eventually happen for the first time are: 23-11, 22-12, 22-15, 25-9.

There have been scores of 23-1 to 23-15, except 23-11.

There have been scores of 22-1 to 22-16, except 22-12 and 22-15.

Baseball has never seen a 25-0 game (but there have been three 24-0 games), but every score from 25-1 to 25-13 has happened, with the exception of 25-9.

Baseball Scores That Have Never Happened

25-0, 26-0, 27-0, 30-0, 31-0, 32-0, etc.
26-1, 27-1, 28-1, 30-1, 31-1, 32-1, 33-1, 34-1, 36-1, 37-1, 39-1, 40-1, 41-1, etc.
27-2, 28-2, 29-3, etc.
29-3, 31-3, 33-3, 34-3, 35-3, etc.
27-4, 28-4, 30-4, 31-4, 32-4, 33-4, 34-4, 36-4, 37-4, 38-4, etc.
29-5, 30-5, 31-5, etc.
27-6, 30-6, 31-6, 32-6, etc.
29-7, 32-7, 33-7, 34-7, 35-7, 37-7, 38-7, 39-7, etc.
28-8, 29-8, 31-8, 32-8, 33-8, etc.
25-9, 28-9, 29-9, 31-9, 32-9, 33-9, etc.
26-10, 29-10, 30-10, 32-10, 33-10, 34-10, etc.
23-11, 26-11, 29-11, 30-11, 31-11, etc.
22-12, 23-12, 24-12, etc.
24-13, 25-13, 26-13, etc.
24-14, 25-14, 26-14, etc.
15-15, 22-15, 24-15, 25-15, 26-15, etc.
23-16, 25-16, 26-16, 27-16, etc.
17-17, 22-17, 23-17, 24-18, etc.
18-18, 21-18, 22-18, 23-18, etc.
21-19, 22-19, 23-19, etc.
20-20, 21-20, 22-20, etc.
21-21, 23-21, 24-21, 25-21, etc.
22-22, 24-22, 25-22, 26-22, etc.
23-23, 24-23, 25-23, 27-23, 29-23, 30-23, 31-23, etc.
and
All games with 24 or more runs allowed, except 49-33!

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