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August 12, 2020

G18: Rays 9, Red Sox 5

Rays    - 132 200 001 - 9 15  0
Red Sox - 000 000 050 - 5 12  0
Zach Godley's (3-10-8-2-3, 74) dismal start on Wednesday night was only the sixth time in the last 90 years that a Red Sox pitcher recorded nine or fewer outs while allowing 10+ hits and 8+ runs. Godley is the 11th pitcher to do so in franchise history.

Godley faced 21 batters and 12 of them reached base. Brandon Lowe singled, doubled, and homered off Godley, scoring three times. Willy Adames and Yoshi Tsutsugo also went deep off Godley.

Ryan Weber pitched quite well in relief (6-5-1-0-4, 58). He was aided by three double plays, allowing no runners past first base and only one ball to be hit out of the infield in his first five innings.

Do you care how Tampa Bay scored its runs? . . . If so, why?

Blake Snell (5-4-0-0-6, 70) was stingy. Only two Red Sox reached second base while Snell was on the mound, one of them thanks to a stolen base. Kevin Pillar had two of the four singles off the Rays' lefty (one capping a 10-pitch at-bat to start the bottom of the first), but he also was thrown out trying for a double in the third inning.

Aaron Slegers breezed through the sixth and seventh innings, but the Red Sox were sluggers against Slegers in the eighth. He allowed six hits and did not record an out. Jackie Bradley reached on an infield single and hits from José Peraza and Pillar loaded the bases. Jonathan Arauz dropped a single into left, spoiling the Rays' bid for a shutout. Then J.D. Martinez crushed an inside slider over the Wall for a grand slam! After Tsu-Wei Lin singled, Slegers was pulled.

Nick Anderson struck out Christian Vázquez and Michael Chavis before giving up a single to Alex Verdugo. Which meant that Bradley was coming to the plate as the potential tying run, however implausible that sounds. Bradley went after the first pitch and grounded out to shortstop.

One good thing: the game was played in a lightning-fast 2:58. (Three of the Red Sox's 18 games have been less than three hours in duration.)

Pete Fairbanks kept the ball in the infield while pitching a clean ninth and NESN lived down to its reputation by keeping Anderson's name and pitch count in its scorebug for the entire inning. Fairbanks's stats were shown at the start of the inning, so NESN knew about the pitching change.


Even as the last pitch of the game was about to be delivered, the bug had not been updated. Anderson threw 12 pitches in the eighth and Fairbanks was about to deliver his 11th.

In this screenshot, I blacked out FIFTEEN ADVERTISEMENTS, including one on the goddamn mound.

Blake Snell / Zack Godley
Pillar, RF
Devers, 3B
Martinez, DH
Bogaerts, SS
Vázquez, C
Chavis, 1B
Verdugo, LF
Bradley, CF
Peraza, 2B
Andrew Benintendi strained the right side of his rib cage yesterday and is on the IL. Ryan Weber has been recalled.

Padres reliever Drew Pomeranz has pitched in nine games, allowing only one hit in 7.2 innings and collecting four saves. Why can't we get . . .?

Charlie Blackmon of the Rockies is batting .500 (34-for-68) through 17 games.

He is the seventh player in MLB history to bat at least .500 in his team's first 17 games (min. 50 PA). The last four were Stan Musial (1958 Cardinals), Hank Aaron (1959 Milwaukee), Larry Walker (1997 Rockies), and Barry Bonds (2004 Giants).

Blackmon began this season 0-for-9! He is batting .567 during his current 15-game hitting streak (34-for-60), the the highest average across a streak of 15+ games since Lance Berkman hit .586 (34-for-58) in 15 games May 3-18, 2008.

In the last week, Blackmon is hitting .739 (17-for-23), with no strikeouts in 27 plate appearances!

Tom Tango, MLB's Senior Data Architect, says Blackmon has a 10% chance of ending the season with an average over .400. Thomas Harrigan writes:
Let's assume he'll get two games off, and log four at-bats per game in the other 41, for an estimated total of 164 at-bats remaining.

Blackmon already has 68 at-bats, so if he gets another 164, it would put him at 232 on the season. Hitting .400 in 232 at-bats would require Blackmon to collect 93 total hits, or 59 more than he has now, which would mean going 59-for-164 (.360) the rest of the way.

Blackmon has hit .307 in his career, and .312 since the beginning of 2018 ... So let's say Blackmon has the "true" talent level of a .310 hitter. ...

What is the chance that a "true" .310 hitter will get 59 hits over any 164 at-bat stretch?

The answer, according to Tango's calculations, is 10%.

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