The Red Sox begin their final homestand of the season tonight, eight games against the Orioles (3), Mets (2), and Yankees (3).
Chris Sale returns to the team and the mound this evening.
Matthew Kory (Sox Outsider) looks at the team's remaining 14 games and estimates a 10-4 record (which seems a bit optimistic to me; a more likely finish is 8-6, which is also their record so far in September):
That would put them at 93 wins and give them an overwhelming shot at one of the Wild Card spots. According to FanGraphs, they have a pretty good at pulling that off. FanGraphs has Boston with the second best chance to make the playoffs of any AL East team behind the Rays, who are at 100 percent. FanGraphs has the Red Sox at 75.1 percent, ahead of Toronto (68.3 percent), New York (51.8 percent), and Baltimore (0.0 percent).
Why? Likely due to the Red Sox remaining schedule as much as anything. . . . [T]he average winning percentage for all remaining Red Sox opponents is .468, the equivalent to facing a 76-86 team every night. The Yankees remaining schedule offers them a .513 opponents average winning percentage. . . .
Right now, the Yankees are playing for their playoff lives. If they don’t do very well in their next six very winnable games, they're in some serious trouble.
The Red Sox have the easiest schedule of the three AL East teams battling for an invitation to the Wild Card Game, with the Yankees being the only one of their four remaining opponents with a winning record.
AL WC
Blue Jays 82-64 --- vs Twins
Red Sox 83-65 --- vs Orioles
Yankees 82-65 0.5 vs Cleveland
Athletics 79-67 3.0 at Angels
Mariners 78-68 4.0 at Royals
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