With two games remaining in the regular season, four teams are still in the running for the two AL wild card spots.
Yankees 91-69
Red Sox 90-70
Mariners 89-71
Blue Jays 89-71
I have tried to detail the various season-ending scenarios, but it's too complicated. I think the Globe's Alex Speier manages to sum everything up in the short amount of space:
Any two of the four teams could claim outright spots. There could be a three-way tie for the two Wild Card spots. There could be a four-way tie for the two Wild Card spots. There could be an outright winner of the top Wild Card seed and either two or three teams tying for the second spot.
All of that means that this season could require a regular season Game 163 and perhaps even a regular season Game 164. Or the regular season could end in clearer fashion, with the two Wild Card entrants known by Sunday.
Here are the different scenarios that could unfold for the Sox with two games left:
Win Two: They'd guarantee a Wild Card spot and claim the top Wild Card seed if the Yankees lost at least one game.
Win One: The Sox would guarantee that, at the least, they'd play a Game 163. They'd have a shot at the top Wild Card seed if the Yankees lost both of their remaining games, and they'd win a Wild Card spot outright if both the Mariners and the Blue Jays lost at least one game.
However, winning one of two would also leave the Sox susceptible to one or more play-in games. They could land in a four-way tie for the two Wild Card spots (if the Yankees lost their two remaining games and both the Mariners and Blue Jays won out), which would mean one play-in game. They could end up in a three-way tie for the top spot – which would mean a Game 163 and possibly a Game 164 – if the Yankees lost their two games and one of the Mariners or Blue Jays won their last two games. They could end up in a two-way tie for the second spot – meaning a Game 163 – if the Yankees won at least one game and only one of the Mariners or Blue Jays won two. Or they could end up in a three-way tie for the second spot if the Yankees won once, and both the Mariners and Blue Jays won twice. (In that scenario, the Sox would play their 163rd game against the winner of a preceding Mariners/Blue Jays game.)
Lose Both: The Sox could still get an outright Wild Card berth (albeit the second spot) if they lose twice and the Blue Jays and Mariners do the same, though obviously, that’s exceedingly unlikely. They'd be eliminated if either the Blue Jays or Mariners won twice. They could end up in a two-way tie for the second Wild Card spot – thus requiring a Game 163 – if either the Mariners or Blue Jays won once and the other of those teams lost twice. Or they could end up in a three-way tie for the second Wild Card spot if both the Mariners and Blue Jays won once and only once.
Sadly, there is no scenario in which YED comes on Sunday. The Yankees have clinched at least a tie for one of the wild card spots.
If the Red Sox and Yankees end up tied as the two wild card teams, the WC Game would be played in Boston since the Red Sox won the season series 10-9.
* * *Pffft. Boston fans chant “Yankees suck” at Rhode Island high school lacrosse games in March. pic.twitter.com/3KZ3NC4twA
— Ken Tremendous (@KenTremendous) October 2, 2021
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