Red Sox Sign Trevor Story (6/140), Who Will Switch To 2B

The Red Sox have signed free agent shortstop Trevor Story to a six-year, $140 million contract ($23.3 million per year). The team has not confirmed the deal.

It would appear that the mediots and sports radio devotees who moaned that an incurable case of Raysitis would prevent Chaim Bloom from spending real money for a star player were dead fucking wrong. Huh. Imagine that.

Story, who turned 29 last November and has played shortstop for his entire six-year major league career (745 games), will move to second base with Boston. He'll have to learn the position very quickly, as the season begins in less than three weeks. With Xander Bogaerts at short and Rafael Devers at third, the Red Sox boast an extremely potent infield.

Story's contract reportedly includes "an opt-out after the fourth year that can be negated if a seventh-year club option is exercised, which would make the contract worth a total of $160 million".

Bogaerts has an opt-out clause at the end of this season, so Story could possibly move back to shortstop in 2023 if X decides to mark his spot in another city. If Bogaerts does not opt out, his contract runs through 2025, with a club option for 2026. X said a few days ago he would be thrilled to play alongside Story:

He's a big bat. We know what he does defensively already. I think that bat would play really well at Fenway just with that short porch over there. He has a nice swing that's kind of built for that. . . . That's a big boy. . . . That's an impact player.

As news of the signing spread, his teammates agreed.

Kiké Hernández:

Hell of a player. . . . Not a lot of home run hitters go out there and steal 30 bags [Story stole a career-high 27 bases in 2018; he was 20-for-26 last year], and I know he has that ability. We don't have that many guys in our lineup that can do that. Not just his bat, but his baserunning can help us a lot.

Nathan Eovaldi:

It sparks the team. . . . Our lineup is already extremely talented and then to add another piece like that is only going to make us better.

Michael Wacha:

From my experience and pitching against him, he's always a tough out. . . . I was able to actually work out with him a couple of offseasons ago in Fort Worth and got to witness firsthand how explosive and how athletic he is in the gym.

Rich Hill

When you look at a spray chart, it's pretty difficult to prepare sometimes when you can have that kind of ability to go from foul pole to foul pole with the bat control that he has. Also, just his glove in the field, what he's been able to do over the last multiple years has been impressive.

As with most Rockies players, there is a sharp difference between Story's home and road stats:

Coors: .303/.369/.603  .972 OPS
Road:  .241/.310/.442  .752 OPS

Josh Rojas finished the 2021 season with a .752 OPS, 92nd among MLB hitters.

Nick Groke (The Athletic) covers the Rockies:

But his road splits! . . . Here is the basic truth: A Rockies hitter is not as good as his home numbers say and he's not nearly as bad as his road numbers might suggest. This is called the Coors Field Hangover. Seeing flat pitches that don't move in Denver one day, then bend around an arc the next day in San Francisco, for instance, can really mess with a hitter's head. Even then, ignoring his home numbers, Story's basic career road numbers put him among the best shortstops in the game. By park-adjusted OPS, he ranks right around Francisco Lindor and Javier Baéz over the past three years.

Story's home-road splits will even out, like they did with LeMahieu and Arenado. And if the past is any indication, it's fair to expect the newest Red Sox second baseman will become an even better hitter in Boston.

Chad Jennings, one of The Athletic's Red Sox writers:

Why, after a week of stunning inactivity and two years of fiscal restraint, was Story such a perfect fit for the Red Sox? The team has prioritized longevity and flexibility, and in his own way, Story gives them both.

In the short term, the plan is to play him at second base. The club has been in pursuit of a right-handed bat since it traded away Renfroe before the lockout, and Story can provide that thump. He's hit at least 24 homers in each full season since his big league debut, and assuming he can make the transition from shortstop, he can immediately slot into a position where the Red Sox were relatively weak (while allowing Kiké Hernández to remain in center field, where he thrived last season).

But the Red Sox committed to six years because Story's fit should last beyond this season, and perhaps beyond second base. With Xander Bogaerts facing an opt-out decision this winter, Story provides shortstop insurance going forward. He's coming off a down year but had been remarkably steady before that, and the Red Sox are betting on a return to form that solves two problems at once (second base glove, right-handed bat) and another potential problem down the road.

There are numerous caveats with the following, but still . . . Story hit 24 home runs last year. However, if he had played all of his games at Coors, his batted balls (all things being the same) would have resulted in 19 homers. With all his games at Fenway, he would have finished with 39 dongs -- and that number is similar in each AL East park: New York 48, Baltimore 42, Toronto 36, Tampa Bay 33.

This is Story's spray chart for the last three season, overlaid onto Fenway Park. A lot of left field fly outs would be doubles and home runs and hardly any of his right-field homers would be caught.

I can't improve on Matthew Kory's summary:

This will almost certainly put the Red Sox over the Luxury Tax threshold for the 2022 season. . . . 

This is not a permanent trip to Cap Hell though. A tremendous amount of money comes off the Red Sox' books after this season and that will drop them well below the tax threshold, at least as things stand now. By my math, $97 million will drop off after this season . . .

It's impossible to predict the future, but before the 2021 season Story would been listed among the safer bets. In fact, had Story hit the market a season earlier, he likely would've been in line for a contract of roughly twice the size he just signed. The 2021 season and his elbow injury throw that into some question. . . . Overall though, he's a well-rounded player with power, batting average, speed, and good fielding. . . .

Story does a number of things for the Red Sox. He gives them another above average bat and lengthens the lineup. He gives them a long term answer at second base and a fall back option at shortstop should Xander Bogaerts get hurt during the 2022 season or leave following it. For 2022, he makes the Red Sox better both in the field and at the plate. For 2023 and beyond he gives the Red Sox a strong floor at an important position. . . .

Story pushes Enrique Hernandez to center field full time, which makes the best use of Hernandez's skills. Story also pushes Christian Arroyo to the bench as a backup infielder, a role he's probably more suited for than starter.

As for the front office, this is the biggest splash the Red Sox have made since signing David Price before the 2016 season. . . . Most importantly, the Red Sox are a better team today than they were yesterday. Considering what has happened in the AL East since the end of the 2021 season, that wasn't just extraneous, it was necessary.