Random comments:
Peter Abraham: "AL East: Blue Jays. This division will be a rock fight, with four teams capable of winning."
Julian McWilliams: "AL East: Rays. Everyone seems to have hopped on the Blue Jays hype train, but the Rays remain one of the most consistent teams in baseball and thrive during the regular season."
Alex Speier: "AL East: Blue Jays. With Canada's vaccination requirements, they may have the biggest home-field advantage in the history of the sport. . . . October without the Red Sox or Yankees for the first time since 2014? They're certainly talented enough to reach the playoffs, but the AL East seems like the Group of Death."
AL East
Four of these teams won 90+ games in 2021 but the Blue Jays were the most active in the offseason, acquiring third baseman Matt Chapman and starter Kevin Gausman – albeit to replace Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray. . . . The Rays have won the division two years in a row but didn't do much to upgrade, and have a lot riding on Wander Franco (and his new 11-year, $182 million contract) taking a significant step forward. . . . Yankees fans may have hated the offseason, but the team didn't get significantly worse over the winter. The pitching questions persist but they could get a jolt from new infielders Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. . . . Trevor Story will move to second base for the Red Sox, who swooped in to sign the two-time All-Star and boast one of the best lineups in baseball. . . . The Orioles hope to see top prospect Adley Rutschman soon (but not too soon) and are going to lose 100 games again but have players worth watching in Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle.
AL East
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays*
New York Yankees*
Boston Red Sox*
Baltimore OriolesAL Central: White Sox
AL West: Astros
NL East: Atlanta
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: DodgersPostseason Predictions
WC
White Sox over Red Sox; Yankees over Rays
Cardinals over Brewers; Mets over PadresDS
Astros over Yankees; Blue Jays over White Sox
Dodgers over Brewers; Atlanta over MetsCS
Astros over Blue Jays; Dodgers over Mets
WS
Dodgers over Astros in 6
AL MVP: Guerrero, Trout, Ohtani (Judge 4, Devers 7)
NL MVP: Harper, Soto, Turner (Mookie 4)AL Cy Young: Cole, Bieber, Ray
NL Cy Young: Burnes, Buehler, Scherzer
The predicted standings are the average wins and losses from 20,000 season simulations.
AL East
Blue Jays 91-71
Rays 87-75
Red Sox 86-76
Yankees 86-76
Orioles 70-92The AL East is the best division in baseball, and it doesn't take a model to know that. . . . The Sporting News' model sees the Blue Jays as a slim favorite to win the division over the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, but it expects all four teams to reach the playoffs.
Toronto's lineup . . . is the best in the American League . . . The Rays are that team that is constantly underloved by metrics and subsequently overperforms. The model has them in third in the AL East, but it would surprise no one to see them win the division. . . . The Red Sox surprised some people with their run to the ALCS in 2021, and Boston expects to be back in the mix for the playoffs again . . . Fans of the Yankees are disappointed that New York wasn't able to land any major name in free agency, but that doesn't stop the model from being bullish on the Bronx Bombers' chances to make the playoffs. . . .
Division WC Miss playoffs
Blue Jays 42.9% 41.1% 16.0%
Rays 22.2% 47.6% 30.2%
Red Sox 18.2% 45.7% 36.1%
Yankees 16.5% 43.3% 40.2%
Orioles 0.1% 1.8% 98.1%AL Playoff Predictions
First-round byes: White Sox, Astros
Remaining playoff teams: Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox, YankeesTeam Win Pennant (10+%)
Blue Jays 16.9%
White Sox 15.2%
Astros 13.9%
Rays 13.0%
Red Sox 12.3%
Yankees 10.8%NL Playoff Predictions
First-round byes: Dodgers, Braves
Remaining playoff teams: Cardinals, Giants, Mets, PhilliesTeam Win Pennant (10+%)
Dodgers 17.4%
Giants 14.2%
Atlanta 14.1%
Mets 12.9%
Cardinals 11.9%
Phillies 10.7%World Series Prediction
Team Win World Series (5+%)
Dodgers 9.3%
Blue Jays 8.7%
Giants 8.4%
White Sox 7.7%
Rays 7.1%
Astros 7.0%
Atlanta 6.8%
Mets 6.4%
Cardinals 6.0%
Red Sox 5.7%
Yankees 5.2%
National LeagueWild Cards: Cardinals, Giants, MetsPennant: DodgersMVP: Soto, Acuna, Betts/Freeman/Machado/O'Neill
Cy Young: Scherzer, Buehler, WoodruffAmerican LeagueWild Cards: Mariners, Rays, YankeesPennant: Blue JaysMVP: Guerrero, Ohtani, Correa/Judge/Ramirez
Cy Young: Cole, Ohtani, Bieber/Berrios/Giolito/RayWorld Series (9 picks)Dodgers: 5 (over Blue Jays, Blue Jays, Blue Jays, Rays, Rays)Rays: 1 (over Mets)Blue Jays: 2 (over Dodgers, Dodgers)
Cardinals: 1 (over Rays)Which Team Had The Most Disappointing Offseason?Yankees. By the end of 2021, it was clear the Yankees were old and injury-prone. With talents like Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman and Trevor Story on the market, the team instead chose to bring back Anthony Rizzo and trade for Josh Donaldson while also getting weaker offensively at shortstop (Isiah Kiner-Falefa) and catcher (a tandem of Kyle Higashioka and Ben Rortvedt). To add some salt, the Twins used some of the cost savings from shedding Donaldson's contract to sign Correa, while the rival Red Sox spent big for Story. (Josh Norris)
Tampa won't have Tyler Glasnow, who will be recovering from Tommy John surgery, but they have two future aces in Shane McClanahan and Shane Baz, plus the experienced Corey Kluber and an army of talented, versatile arms to round out the staff. Perhaps more importantly, they will have a full season of young phenom Wander Franco (who hit .288/.347/.463 with a 127 wRC+ as a 20-year-old in 2021) to headline the lineup. . . . The Blue Jays may be one big piece away (either an infielder or another impact pitcher) from really challenging the Rays, but the Yankees and Red Sox (two teams that could also bring in some big pieces after the lockout) do seem to be half a step behind.
As a longtime Rays disrespecter, they can't keep getting away with it. Eventually, the Rays' miserly approach is going to come back to bite them in the regular season. . . . Someone is going to overtake the Rays, and it might as well be the Blue Jays, the lone 90-win team who missed the playoffs last year. Losing Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray stings, but Toronto has enough there to succeed without them. . . . Even without Semien, the Jays still have a lineup that should be one of the most productive in the majors. Without Ray, Toronto still has a formidable one-two punch in Gausman and José Berríos.
This may be a homer pick, but homer picks aren't necessarily bad picks. The Red Sox are bringing back the majority of a roster that just won a Wild Card spot en route to the ALCS, farther than any other AL East team. The losses of Hunter Renfroe and Kyle Schwarber do leave a hole in the lineup, but I would expect an addition to supplement these losses once the lockout ends . . . If Bobby Dalbec's late-season surge (1.047 OPS from 7/29 on) wasn't real, a reinforcement in Triston Casas figures to be in the big leagues this summer. The top of the rotation will be anchored by the formidable 1-2 punch of Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Sale . . . In the end, this division is anybody's (well, except the Orioles). While I doubt they will be widely considered the favorites, the Red Sox will be very competitive in 2022 . . .
Last year the Jays won 91 games (shockingly only good for fourth place in an uber-competitive division), but based on their run differential of 183, their Pythagorean record was a robust 100-62. Their young core is a year older, and they've upgraded their rotation. No one will argue that Toronto's young players are an unmitigated offensive juggernaut . . . Toronto's pitching was adequate last season, but they've put together a solid rotation going into 2022. . . . The Jays are more balanced and more mature than last season and are poised to take a step forward, winning the AL East for the first time since 1993.
[U]nless something extraordinary happens I would give the slight favoritism for the Toronto Blue Jays to win the highly contested AL East. . . . [T]his offense remains one of the five best in baseball with ease. The team that finished with a Pythagorean W-L record of 99-63 last year now has a full season of deadline acquisition José Berrios. One figures that's almost a given that the Rays will outperform their projections in what has become almost a seasonal tradition so they can't ever be ruled out. The Yankees should figure to be in the race as well and I see Boston somewhat behind with too much uncertainty surrounding the staff, but nothing is truly off the table.
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