Michael Baumann: If you've followed The Ringer's baseball coverage for any length of time, you know I'm an absolute flop-sweating freak for the 2015 Blue Jays—and a return to those magical Ontario days is so close I can taste it.
Ben Lindbergh: Look, at a certain point a person gets tired of picking the Dodgers to win the World Series every year. They're still probably the best team in baseball, and they've won pennants in three of the past five seasons, but their age and depth are big enough sources of uncertainty (relative to earlier Dodgers juggernauts) that there's an opening for the new hotness. . . . [The Blue Jays] are gonna be good, so I'm downgrading the Dodgers from championship team to mere runners-up.
Zach Kram: Toronto plays in the toughest division in baseball and just lost the reigning AL Cy Young winner and third-place MVP finisher. Yet I don't care, because Toronto will compensate for those losses and more with the additions discussed above. . . . The Blue Jays will thrill, entertain, and ride their talented lineup and rotation to a victory in a rematch of the 1992 World Series . . .
Bobby Wagner: Far be it from me to question the guarantees of Dave Roberts . . . The Dodgers are pretty clearly the best team in baseball. That doesn't always insulate a team from disaster . . . but this group is virtually flop-proof.
AL MVP
Lindbergh: Shohei Ohtani, Angels. I've picked Ohtani's teammate Mike Trout to be AL MVP in each of the five past seasons, and in 2018, I declared that I'd do so every year until Trout was traded to an NL team or 2024, whichever came first. Trout hasn't been traded, and it's not yet 2024, but I think I can escape my commitment under an act of God clause triggered by Ohtani's divine production. . . . He says he can improve his numbers "across the board" [thanks to] the "Ohtani rule," and batting at the top of the order (protected by Trout). . . . [I]t's hard to imagine a healthy Ohtani not winning this thing again.
Kram: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays. I don't trust that Trout will stay healthy or that Ohtani will replicate the most magical individual season of my lifetime. I do, however, trust that Guerrero will mash once again . . .
Wagner: Mike Trout, Angels. Ohtani did more than earn it last season, as did the runner-up, Guerrero Jr. And I think it's more or less an even toss-up between those three. But as a sign of respect, I'll pencil Trout in from muscle memory one last time.
Baumann: Trout. I'll say this: For the first time since 2013, I considered picking another AL MVP favorite. But only briefly.
NL MVP
Wagner: Francisco Lindor, Mets. It'll take a damn-near-perfect season from Lindor to win MVP in a field this crowded. Just in Lindor's division, there's Juan Soto . . . Bryce Harper . . . Ronald Acuña Jr. . . . So why Lindor? . . . We know this is at least partially a narrative award, and it's a good story for the $341 million man to be humbled by the bright lights of New York and bounce back in his second season to win MVP.
Kram: Mookie Betts, Dodgers. [U]ntil he gives a reason for me to doubt him, I'll just keep picking Betts to become the first player since Frank Robinson to win MVP in both leagues. [E]ven in a relatively lackluster 2021 campaign, Betts was still worth 4.2 WAR in just 122 games—the pace for a near-MVP-level 5.6 wins across 162 games.
Lindbergh: Juan Soto, Nationals. Soto is more likely to lead the league in WAR—which he nearly did last year—than to win the MVP award . . . Soto's second-half hitting (199 wRC+) may have been MLB's best two-ish months since … well, Soto's 2020 (201 wRC+). The 23-year-old is an offensive savant, and if OBP is life, Soto is its cradle and building blocks.
Baumann: Soto. At some point it'll become conspicuous that Soto hasn't won an MVP yet . . . [E]ventually, we'll understand that this kid with a .432 career OBP—again, for those of you in the back, FOUR (pounds table) THIRTY (pounds table) TWO career OBP—is by far the best hitter in the game right now.
AL Cy Young
Kram: Gerrit Cole, Yankees. He's the safest choice here—especially as he'll pitch in front of a much-improved Yankees defense in 2022.
Lindbergh: Cole. Is it just me, or are most of the sport's impressive starting pitchers now in the National League? Not only is Cole the leading contender for this award, but I don't see a logical case for picking anyone else. . . . I'm not saying Cole will win . . . but the AL is light on no-doubt aces, and after four consecutive top-five finishes (two of which were top-two finishes, including last year's), Cole is the clear favorite.
Wagner: Cole. Every year when I sit down to pick an American League Cy Young winner, I think that Cole's already won one. He deserved it in 2019 and lost to his own teammate, Justin Verlander. . . . With an improved defense behind him, I think this is the year.
Baumann: Shane McClanahan, Rays. Thought about Cole or Bieber, but I didn't want to be boring. Maybe I'm just overawed by the velocity—and for good reason, since McClanahan is the hardest-throwing left-handed starter in the majors. . . . The Rays have a good defense, and are good at developing young pitchers. When Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow were 25—the age McClanahan is now—they both posted ERAs under 2.00. Snell won the Cy Young.
NL Cy Young
Kram: Sandy Alcantara, Marlins. I have to balance my Cole pick in one league with a dark horse in the other. Alcantara might not have the strikeout numbers—just 8.8 Ks per nine innings last season—of most Cy Young hopefuls. But he was quietly excellent in 2021 . . .
Wagner: Zack Wheeler, Phillies. At the risk of reigniting the quality vs. quantity innings debate of 2021, Wheeler's body of work deserves a Cy Young. He's flying in the face of the most dominant pitching trend in baseball right now: smaller workloads for starters. . . . [T]here's also still room to reward a dominant pitcher throwing seven-plus innings every time he takes the ball.
Baumann: Carlos Rodón, Giants. I love Rodón's fit in San Francisco: good ballpark, coaching staff well-established as rescuers of former top prospects. . . . [H]e could've won the Cy Young last year if he'd made about six more starts.
Lindbergh: Corbin Burnes, Brewers. It usually takes a little luck to have a Cy Young season, but not in Burnes's case. Burnes somehow won the Cy last season despite underperforming his peripherals and Statcast-based expected stats; his 2.43 ERA was almost 0.8 runs higher than his 1.63 FIP, one of the biggest gaps in the game. I mean:
AL Rookie of the Year
Baumann: Spencer Torkelson, Tigers. The AL rookie record for home runs in a season is 52 . . . Just keep that in mind.
Lindbergh: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals.
Wagner: Witt Jr.
Kram: Julio Rodríguez, Mariners.
NL Rookie of the Year
Baumann: Max Meyer, Marlins. Meyer is a bit undersized at an even 6 feet, but he throws in the upper 90s with a killer slider and is working on a changeup.
Lindbergh: Seiya Suzuki, Cubs. The 27-year-old has arguably been the best player in Japan for the past few years . . . Suzuki's offensive output in Japan compares favorably to that of almost every previous player who's made the NPB-to-MLB transition, and he brings a good glove, too.
Wagner: Suzuki. In most circles, Suzuki is the overwhelming favorite for this award. And why not? He has a long track record of exceptional production in Japan. His bat is the most surefire tool of anyone in the NL rookie field . . . It's not a guarantee that Suzuki will hit 10 to 15 percent better than league average, but it's pretty likely.
Kram: Suzuki. The sport's top six prospects, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, will all play for American League teams; so in a shallow field, I'll pick Suzuki, who is an MLB rookie but accomplished NPB veteran.
Breakout Player
Wagner: Tanner Houck, Red Sox. On the surface, Houck put together a very solid season in 2021: a respectable 2.2 WAR, with a 3.52 ERA in 69 innings. And if you dig in a little deeper, you'll find a 2.58 FIP, a mix of speed and movement on his pitches that Baseball Savant says is reminiscent of 2021 breakout darling Logan Webb, and the fact that Houck scored in the 80th percentile in almost every important Statcast category for a pitcher, including K%, Whiff%, expected ERA, and expected batting average. Is all of this a mirage? Maybe. But when I watch Houck, I see a pitcher with unique arm action who's added almost 2 miles per hour to his fastball since his debut, and whose slider looks impossible for hitters to pick up out of his hand. Translation: a 25-year-old pitching prospect who strikes a ton of guys out and has trimmed his walks significantly. Houck won't be knocking on the door for the Cy Young any time soon, but he's shaping up to be a pretty good no. 2 or 3 starter, should the Red Sox ever get Chris Sale back.
Kram: Nick Madrigal, Cubs.
Lindbergh: Triston McKenzie, Guardians.
Baumann: Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays. The Blue Jays backstop has become a bit of a fan-favorite figure because at 5-foot-8 and 265 pounds, he's shaped like a friend. . . . Kirk isn't some novelty act: He's going to grow up to be a Yuli Gurriel, or maybe a Dmitri Young.
Flop Team
Baumann: Yankees. Right now, I think the AL Wild Card race is about six teams deep: the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Angels, and Mariners. Maybe seven if the Tigers find their magic sooner than expected. Of those teams, the three AL East clubs look a cut above the rest on paper, but in reality, the Red Sox and Yankees are still a little … meh. Maybe the East will get four teams into the playoffs, but one will probably take a few injuries, lose a couple bad intradivision games, and fall out of touch with the pack. Might as well be the Yankees.
Kram: Padres.
Lindbergh: Phillies.
Wagner: Twins.
Surprise Team
Lindbergh: Angels. I just can't quit the team of Ohtani and Trout. I mean, imagine: a healthier Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Patrick Sandoval; full seasons from mid-2021 reinforcements Brandon Marsh, Jo Adell, and Reid Detmers; a better bullpen; a bounceback from David Fletcher; no sub-replacement play from Albert Pujols and Justin Upton; Noah Syndergaard, I guess? This is so the year. Lucy, please prepare to pull the football again.
Wagner: Tigers.
Kram: Marlins.
Baumann: Marlins.
From 38 ESPN writers, analysts and editors.
AL East: Blue Jays (29 votes), Rays (5), Red Sox (2), Yankees (2)
AL Central: White Sox (34), Twins (4)
AL West: Astros (35), Angels (2), Mariners (1)
AL (Three) Wild Cards: Yankees (30), Red Sox (25), Rays (24), Angels (9), Blue Jays (8), Mariners (5), Twins (4), Tigers (3), White Sox (3), Astros (2), Texas (1)
"Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Rays. We've chosen all four AL East teams to make the playoffs (there's a rumor the AL East has a fifth team, but that's unconfirmed at press time)."
AL Champion: Blue Jays (16), White Sox (10), Rays (4), Yankees (4), Red Sox (2), Angels (1), Astros (1)
NL East: Atlanta (28), Mets (8), Phillies (2)
NL Central: Brewers (32), Cardinals (6)
NL West: Dodgers (35), Giants (3)
NL (Three) Wild Cards: Giants (24), Mets (23), Padres (21), Phillies (19), Cardinals (12), Braves (10), Dodgers (2), Brewers (1), Cubs (1), Rockies (1)
NL Champion: Dodgers (27), Brewers (5), Atlanta (4), Giants (1), Mets (1)
World Series Champion: Dodgers (16), Blue Jays (8), White Sox (5), Atlanta (2), Brewers (2), Yankees (2), Red Sox (1), Giants (1), Rays (1)
AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (13), Shohei Ohtani (9), Mike Trout (9), Aaron Judge (3), Trevor Story (1), Yordan Alvarez (1), Byron Buxton (1), Luis Robert (1)
NL MVP: Juan Soto (19), Ronald Acuna Jr. (3), Freddie Freeman (3), Austin Riley (3), Trea Turner (3), Francisco Lindor (2), Matt Olson (2), Mookie Betts (1), Nick Castellanos (1), Bryce Harper (1)
AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole (10), Shane Bieber (8), Lucas Giolito (7), Jose Berrios (6), Dylan Cease (2), Justin Verlander (2), Chris Sale (1), Kevin Gausman (1), Framber Valdez (1)
NL Cy Young: Walker Buehler (21), Max Scherzer (6), Logan Webb (3), Jacob deGrom (2), Aaron Nola (2), Sandy Alcantara (1), Corbin Burnes (1), Zack Wheeler (1), Brandon Woodruff (1)
AL Rookie of the Year: Bobby Witt Jr. (18), Spencer Torkelson (8), Adley Rutschman (3), Riley Greene (2), Julio Rodriguez (2), Gabriel Arias (1), Shane Baz (1), Josh Lowe (1), Gabriel Moreno (1), Jeremy Pena (1)
NL Rookie of the Year: Seiya Suzuki (16), Oneil Cruz (12), Hunter Greene (4), Joey Bart (2), CJ Abrams (1), Edward Cabrera (1), Cade Cavalli (1), Bryson Stott (1)
From a panel of 73 experts:
AL East: Blue Jays
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Astros
AL Wild Cards: Rays, Red Sox, Yankees
AL champion: Blue Jays
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wild Cards: Giants, Mets, Padres
NL champion: Dodgers
World Series champion: Dodgers
It would have been helpful if MLB.com had provided, as ESPN did, the number of votes received by each team. But that's MLB(.com) for you. Presumably, the Blue Jays received fewer first-place votes than the Dodgers.
A Few Of Jeff Passan's (ESPN) predictions:
Shohei Ohtani's lines:
Batting: .274/.382/.566, 39 home runs, 114 RBIs, 22/25 stolen bases.
Pitching: 25 games started, 145 IP, 102 H, 38 BB, 18 HR, 185 K, 3.06 ERA, 11-6 record.Juan Soto will post the first non-Barry Bonds season with a .500+ OBP since Ted Williams in 1957.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will win two of the Triple Crown categories: batting average at .322 and RBIs with 133.
The Chicago White Sox will defeat the Los Angeles Dodgers to win their first World Series since 2005.
Re Ohtani: Compared to 2021, that's a higher average, higher on-base, more RBI, a better steal %, more starts, more innings, fewer H/9, fewer W/9, more strikeouts, a lower ERA, and more wins. That would a fucking hell of a season.
Re Soto (who won't turn 24 until the end of October): OBP in his four seasons: .406, .401, .490, .465. He's led MLB in each of the last two seasons; the .490 came in the shortened 2020 season.
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