The Red Sox are 48-43. That would be good for a 2.5-game lead in the AL Central, but Boston plays in the AL East, so they are in last place, 9.0 GB. (They are fifth in the 10-team AL Eastral.)
The Red Sox come out of the break with a five-game winning streak and eight wins in its last nine games. Since June 14, they have the best record in the AL (15-8).
Masataka Yoshida has had multiple hits in seven consecutive games (15-for-29, .517). He and Bo Bichette of the Blue Jays lead the AL with 34 multi-hit games.
June 30: 3-for-4
July 1: 2-for-3
July 4: 2-for-4
July 5: 2-for-4
July 6: 2-for-5
July 8: 2-for-5
July 9: 2-for-4
With one game to play before the All-Star break, it's hard to know what to think about this year's Red Sox team, who have generally hovered around .500 for most of the first half. To quote Joe Walsh, they are Ordinary Average Guys. Just look at the team win/loss splits:25-22 at home, 22-21 on the road
15-13 in April, 13-13 in May, and 13-15 in June
17-15 in day games, 30-28 in night games
3-3 in extra innings
12-14 in one-run games
four walk-off wins against two walk-off lossesAbout the only splits that stand out: against American League East division rivals, Boston is 7-0 against Toronto and 5-1 against New York, but they are also 1-7 versus Tampa Bay (they are 3-3 versus Baltimore to date).
At this point, I would give them a solid C; they aren't good, but they aren't terrible. Game to game, series to series, and week to week, you just don't know what the results will be, and it's provided plenty of fodder for Boston sports media programs and traditionally finicky Red Sox fans.
Still, at four games above .500 (47-43), despite being in last place in the division, they are only two games out of a postseason position, mainly because the AL Central is so bad collectively (the current division leader, Cleveland, has two fewer wins than Boston). The team has enjoyed a strong start to the month of July, and the three series following the break will come against sub-.500 teams (the Cubs, the Athletics, and the Mets). Unfortunately, as this season has proven time and again, there are no guarantees with this club.
BB-Ref currently gives the Sox a 25.2% chance to make the postseason and only a 1.3% chance of winning the World Series and taking home the tenth championship trophy Piece of MetalTM in franchise history.
Statistically speaking, when ordered by Wins Against Replacement (WAR), BB-Ref currently shows right fielder Alex Verdugo (3.1 WAR, 119 OPS+) as the team's best player followed by pitcher Brayan Bello (2.8 WAR, 153 ERA+). After that:
James Paxton (1.9 WAR, 170 ERA+)
Jarren Durran (1.9 WAR, 135 OPS+)
Connor Wong (1.7 WAR, 87 OPS+)
Rafael Devers (1.7 WAR, 117 OPS+)
Justin Turner (1.6 WAR, 120 OPS+)
Chris Martin (1.5 WAR, 287 ERA+)
Masataka Yoshida (1.4 WAR, 131 OPS+)
Brennan Bernardino (1.0 WAR, 186 ERA+)
I'm honestly still not sold on this team. Despite the recent success, what happens when they start the second half on the road in Chicago against the Cubs and in Oakland against these same Athletics? Despite both teams being sub-.500 to this point, it would not surprise me to see Boston fall flat and lose both series. I'm not purposely being pessimistic; that's just how the first half has gone, and this team has been streaky.
Some similar thoughts from friend of the blog Matthew Kory (subscribe to Sox Outsider):
The strange saga of the 2023 Boston Red Sox continues. What is there to say about this team beyond a shrugging emoji? They win three against a good team, they lose three against a bad team. They just went 5-1 against Toronto and Texas, but before that they went 1-5 against Miami and the White Sox.
It's difficult to form a coherent and overarching idea of who this team is right now, at least for me. But there are a few different angles to look at. . . .
Part of me thinks I’m being silly. The Red Sox are a .500 team or thereabouts and they've played like a .500 team or thereabouts. They went 15-14 in April (and one March game), they were 13-13 in May, and they've gone 17-16 in June and five July games combined. Are we making this harder than it needs to be?
Well, yes, of course we are. But also, no. Anyone who obsesses over this team can see the talent. You can see how good the offense can be, how good the bullpen and rotation can be. This can be a very good team. This could be a 2021 kind of team. Get in and make a run. If Sale comes back and… . . .
Baseball is always about ifs but this is a team that has been crushed by injuries and currently sports what I'd probably call a 2.5 man five man rotation. Which is just freaking unheard of. The bizarre part is that, of the many starters Boston has had in their rotation this season, the one who has not been hurt and missed time is James Paxton. So, is there a better definition of living on borrowed time than that? . . .
Except, the Red Sox DO have a chance at the playoffs and 20 percent, while not what you want, isn't nothing. . . . And yet, this team has three starting pitchers! Three! And one of them is a reliever! And one of them is James Paxton!! How is this ever going to turn out well? Is there a universe in which this team can somehow keep Paxton healthy through the season and through a (prospective) playoff run? Sure, Chris Sale could be back by then but A) if so, he'd only be the fourth healthy starter (generally ya need five), and B) who is to say Sale wouldn't step on a rake and trip into a well while on a rehab assignment?
Counting on Chris Sale seems more than iffy at this point. Heck, counting on James Paxton seems iffy at every point. But if you can't count on Paxton, how are you going to count on this team?
Oh, did I mention they have one healthy catcher and no healthy shortstops?
So what do you do with this?
Wait until 2024, I suppose. Signing Ohtani is going to give this team a big fucking boost.
3 comments:
Generally agreed, but...
"...they went 1-5 against Miami and the White Sox."
Miami's been pretty good through this point. It sucked losing all those games, but the Marlins are not the Royals or A's.
Thanks for the shout-out, Allan!
Winning the Ohtani sweepstakes this coming off-season would be a HUGE surprise, but it's certainly doable. It's likely that he will command $50M per year under his next contract and, going into his age 30 season in 2024, it's likely to be the last playing contract he signs. The current Boston payroll is roughly $183M, which is $50M below the luxury tax threshold. They have $150M committed for 2024. The opportunity is certainly there.
Yes, I know it's a long shot, but I will continue to, as Brian Cashman says, "smoke the objective pipe".
Here is Ian Browne, saying much the same things as JM/FF and MK/SO:
"Will the real 2023 Red Sox please stand up?
"Manager Alex Cora's team has alternated between hot and cold, and its latest stretch of solid baseball has it at 48-43 coming out of the All-Star break. Too often, the Red Sox have followed a streak like that with a tough one that brings them back to .500 or even a game or two below.
"If the Sox are going to avoid missing the playoffs for the fourth time in the past five seasons, they need to start being consistent.
"'I mean, we're playing good baseball [lately],' Cora said. 'You know, I think offensively, there's a lot of guys doing a lot of good things now. For a month and a half, we didn't hit with men in scoring position. But the line was moving. The guys are driving them in now and it's a good feeling, but we've got work to do. We're still last in the American League East.'
"Not by much, though. Boston trails fourth-place New York by just a game and third-place Toronto by two games. The Sox are also just two games behind for the third Wild Card spot.
"One key will be health. The Sox currently have three starters on the injured list -- Chris Sale, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock. The sooner the club gets one or two of those pitchers back, the better. Using an opener twice every five or so games simply isn't sustainable.
"Trevor Story should also be back by early August, and he adds offense, defense and speed."
***
Browne also notes that Yoshida has 27 walks and only 36 strikeouts.
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