Through almost 100 games, free-agent-to-be Shohei Ohtani is hitting home runs at roughly the same pace Aaron Judge did last season when the Yankees slugger set an American League record with 62 dongs.
The 2023 Angels have played 97 games and Ohtani has hit 35 home runs. That pace would give him 58.5 home runs for the 162-game season.
When the 2022 Yankees had played 97 games, Judge had hit 37 home runs. (He had 34 through 94 games.)
Ohtani belted 15 home runs in June, with a batting line of .394/.492/.952 for a 1.444 OPS. His average this month is only .277, but he has a 1.109 OPS, thanks to a preponderance of extra-base hits (1 double, 2 triples, 5 home runs, and only 5 singles).
Boston Red Sox: SS Marcelo Mayer, RHP Brayan Bello, 2B Nick Yorke, OF/SS Ceddanne Rafaela
Yes, seeing the Red Sox on this list is surprising. Boston is not the favorite to acquire him in a trade, let alone spend half a billion in free agency. But the Red Sox are playing well right now, entering Wednesday just 1.5 games out of a wild card spot. A staff ace like Ohtani would grease the wheels in their playoff hunt while potentially swaying him to stay put at Fenway and play for a big-market team.
So Boston would have to push an extremely strong offer in the Angels' direction, and it all starts with Mayer. The 20-year-old shortstop is a top-three prospect in baseball with an enormous ceiling as a potential five-tool player. Pair him with Yorke, who has been turning heads since he handled the jump to Double-A, and Los Angeles would be looking at a dynamic duo up the middle for several years to come. Throw in Rafaela and the Red Sox could be competitive in the Ohtani bidding while, of course, mortgaging their future for what could be just a two-month rental. But it doesn't hurt to dream.
No team should trade the farm for Ohtani unless they are at least 75-80% sure he would sign with them and avoid free agency. Boston is not a team like that and why wouldn't Ohtani go FA? Getting him would be a true shock, of course, and it would involve maybe three moving vans full of money. It won't happen, but fuck it, hoping for a miracle costs me nothing.
By the way, how many of you remember this from last year?
MLB Used Different Baseballs In 2022, And Juiced Ones Showed Up At Yankees Games
Did MLB Help Aaron Judge's Home Run Record Pursuit With A Different Baseball?
James Dator, SB Nation, December 7, 2022A widespread study of over 200 baseballs used during the 2022 season showed massive variance, pointing to a "juiced ball," a "dead ball" an[d] a "Goldilocks ball." The study was conducted by astrophysicist Dr. Meredith Wills who does work for the Society for American Baseball Research, and aided by Insider — who published the report on Wednesday morning.
This isn't the first time there have been questions raised about using different baseballs inside a single MLB season. Dr. Wills previously found in 2019 that MLB was using a new ball, which contributed to baseball's scoring explosion. . . .
In 2021 MLB was forced to use two different ball constructions for the season due to production difficulties due to Covid-19 of the new baseballs. . . . The new and old balls were distributed at random, but it didn't mean players were happy. . . .
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred . . . admitt[ed] at the 2022 All Star game that MLB was forced to use the different balls — the first public acknowledgement of the issue from the league. At the time he assured fans that for 2022 there was no issue, and that every baseball in circulation for the season was of the new construction . . .
The Wills and Insider report shows that of the 200 baseball they tested from the 2022 season the majority were from the new "dead" ball stock, which MLB said would be every ball for the season. However, they also found instances of the old "juiced" balls, as well as a third construction which fell into the middle — and is being dubbed the "Goldilocks ball," for being the perfect mix of weight and velocity. More alarming is that there appears, at least from the initial data, to show huge inconsistencies in the ball distribution across MLB ballparks.
Wills and Insider found that 36 Goldilocks balls only appeared in four distinct situations:
Special commemorative balls used on team anniversaries (6)
All-Star week (3)
Postseason (14)
Yankees games (11)It's that final point that's going to be the most contentious. Finding 11 baseballs is far from a smoking gun, but it is very curious that Goldilocks balls ramped up in use in Yankees home games as Aaron Judge was chasing Roger Maris' AL home run record. In August only two of the different balls were found, jumping to six in September, before dropping back off in October back to two. Judge broke the record on October 4.
I would edit the first sentence in that last paragraph to read:
. . . it is very curious that Goldilocks balls ramped up in use in Yankees home games – and only in Yankees home games – as Aaron Judge was chasing Roger Maris' AL home run record.
Manfred messes with the game, but it's always strictly "in the best interests of baseball". Hey, Bowie Kuhn, I know you died more than 16 years ago, but go fuck yourself. (Yeah, I'm still a little bitter. It's only been 47 years.)
Like everyone else with a connection to baseball, Judge has marveled at what Ohtani can do.
Records are meant to be broken. It's just a record. It'll be exciting for the game if he went out there and got 63-plus. We'll see what happens. . . . It's incredible. . . . I don't like watching it in person, when he's playing against us, doing what he's doing, but it's fun when you can turn on the TV and see that he's throwing eight innings, striking out 10 and hitting two homers in a game. . . . I tried a little toe tap like he does. . . . I haven't mastered that yet. I've still got a couple of more years.
Ohtani also has a seven-game hit streak, in which he's batting .429 (12-for-28) with four homers and eight RBIs.
Judge has not played in a game since June 3, but he still leads the MFY with 40 RBI. (The AL's RBI leader has 80 runs batted in.)
I would definitely NOT make a trade with the Angels for Ohtani at the deadline unless Boston is serious about signing him long-term; even then, giving up Bello would be a non-starter in my book. Again, from a financial standpoint, the Red Sox stand a good chance of having significant room under the luxury tax threshold for next season and beyond, so I believe they have as good a chance as any other team in the league, and possibly better.
ReplyDeleteAgain, I never imagined that there would be a worse baseball commissioner than Selig, but Manfred has just about achieved that mark in less than half the number of years that his predecessor was in office.
ReplyDeleteIs spending $500+ million on a 29-year-old a good idea?
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely not.
He will be 30 next July.
How many seasons can Ohtani effectively pitch and DH?
Three more? Five? After that, he's a DH. A good one, presumably, but not worth $50/yr.
He seems incredibly grounded and knows how to keep himself in peak condition for what he needs to do. But still . . .