The 2025 Major League Baseball season began in Tokyo, Japan, and it will end in Toronto, Canada. This is the first time a season has both begun and ended outside the United States. The Dodgers won way back on March 18 and they hope to win both tonight and Saturday night, and repear as World Series champions.
Los Angeles trails in the series 2-3 and are calling upon Yoshinobu Yamamoto to stifle the Toronto Blue Jays' bats, while simultaneously hoping to break out of their recent hitting slump. The Dodgers are hitting .201/.296/.354 in the World Series. (In Games 4 and 5, LA is 10-for-61 (.164), with eight singles .)
The noodle bats abound: Mookie Betts (.130, 3-for-23), Max Muncy (.150, 3-for-20), Kike Hernandez (.211, 4-for-19, zero walks, 10K), Tommy Edman (.143, 3-for-21). . . . The only Dodgers batting over .238 are Teoscar Hernandez (.318, 7-for-22), Shohei Ohtani (.316, 6-for-19, 2 doubles, 3 home runs, 7 walks) and Freddie Freeman (.250, 5-for-20, 4 walks (.400 OBP)).
Teams in the Blue Jays' position (breaking a 2-2 tie by winning Game 5 on the road in a 2-3-2 series) have won the series 74.1% of the time.
The 2025 Dodgers have lost their last two games and need to win their next two games. How often did the pattern LLWW appear in their schedule? Twelve times:
April 7-11, 12-15, 23-27
May 18-21, 24-27
June 6-9
July 9-13, 26-29
August 12-16, 22-25
September 15-18, 21-25
Yamamoto has been superb in his brief postseason career (two seasons). In six of his eight postseason starts, he's allowed two earned runs or fewer. He comes into Game 6 having thrown two consecutive complete starts, against the Brewers in NLCS 2 (9-3-1-1-7, 111) and against the Blue Jays in Game 2 (9-4-1-0-8, 105) of this series. 18 innings, 7 hits, 1 walk, 2 runs, and 15 strikeouts. (I'll mention his other WS start, in Game 2 last October, because he shut down the Yankees (6.1-1-1-2-4, 86).
Also: In the last 55 years, only three pitchers have thrown three complete games in a postseason: Luis Tiant (1975), Orel Hershiser (1988), Curt Schilling (2001).
Toronto will send Kevin Gausman to the hill, who was on the losing side in Game 2 (6.2-4-3-0-6, 82). The Blue Jays have a ton of momentum, winning Games 4 and 5 in Los Angeles after losing in 18 innings in Game 3. George Springer is back atop the lineup. (This may be limited to Sportsnet, but I have seen a pro-Jays commercial that puts Springer's seventh-inning, lead-grabbing, three-run homer against Mariners in ALCS 7 on par with Joe Carter's World Series-winning blast against the Phillies in 1993. Nonsense.
2025: The Mariners held a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the seventh of Game 7. The Blue Jays' win probability was at 22%. The inning unfolded against Bryan Woo thusly: Addison Barger walk (29%). Isiah Kiner-Falefa single (39%). Andres Gimenez sacrifice bunt (37%). Eduard Bazardo replaced Woo. Springer homered to left (77%), giving Toronto a 4-3 lead (win probability increased by 40%). The Mariners retained a win probability of 26% as they began the top of the eighth. They trailed by one run and would come to bat for at least two more innings. At the start of the ninth inning, their win probability had dropped to 17%. I don't know how many 2025 games in which the winning team began the ninth inning with a 17% win probability, but I'll bet it's over 30. Unfortunately, the Mariners went down in order in both innings.
1993: Carter's shot off Mitch Williams came in Game 6 (which I watched in the Brooklyn apartment of a hardcore Phillies fan; I don't know where Carter was when the TV was shut off, but he hadn't touched home plate, that's for sure), not a decisive Game 7. Even if the Blue Jays had lost that game 6-5, there would have been another game the following night. Toronto led 5-1 after six innings (94%), thanks to a strong performance from Dave Stewart (6-2-1-3-2, 99). But Stewart also faced three batters in the seventh and the Phillies went walk, single, home run (Dykstra, 69%). Another run in that inning tied the game 5-5, dropping the Blue Jays' likelihood of a win at 37%. And it kept dropping: 26% (end of 7), 32% (mid 8), 17% (end of 8), 21% (mid 9). With Mitch Williams on the mound: Henderson walk (35%), White F7 (22%), Molitor single (34%), Carter home run (100%). The play added 66% to Toronto's win probability.
And it fuckin won the World Series. Which is a much bigger deal than winning a pennant and getting the chance to play in the World Series. Springer's home run was a hell of a moment for Blue Jays fans, especially for those fans born after Carter's heroics, which thus have been relegated to "history".
Does David Ortiz's game- and series-winning home run against the Angels on par with either of his game-winning hits against the Yankees in the ALCS? No. Of course not.
Out of curiosity, I looked at those three games.
ALDS 3: Boston begins B10 at 66%. Rodriguez pitching, Damon single (73%), Bellhorn bunt-FC (65%), Reese pinch-run, Manny K (57%), Washburn pitching, Ortiz home run (100%). Added 43%.
ALCS 4: Boston begins B12 at 66%. Quantrill pitching, Manny single (73%), Ortiz home run (100%). Added 27%. (Extra: Roberts' steal in the ninth added 25%!)
ALCS 5: Boston began B14 at 66% (this is standard in the middle of an extra inning; WP is at 50% after each full extra inning). Loaiza pitching, Bellhorn K (59%), Damon walk (65%), Cabrera K (57%), Manny walk (62%), Ortiz single (100%). Added 38%.
In this case, the order of importance of those hits (ALCS 4, ALCS 5, ALDS 3) is in reverse proportion to their value, according to win probability.
Trey Yesavage has left his mark on this postseason:
Yesavage has eight major league starts on his resume. Five of those came in this postseason. He is the first major league pitcher to make even three postseason starts within his first eight games and the first pitcher in history to start multiple World Series games within his first eight career games.
Yesavage's 12 strikeouts in Game 5 set a World Series record for rookie pitchers, surpassing Don Newcombe (11 Yankees, 1949 WS 1). Yesavage issued no walks, becoming the first pitcher to strike out 12+ and not walk anyone in a World Series game.
Yesavage struck out each batter in the Dodgers' starting lineup at least once. He's the third starting pitcher in World Series history to do that, joining Bob Gibson (1968 WS 1, Tigers) and Randy Johnson (2001 WS 2, Yankees).
Yesavage got the Dodgers to swing-and-miss 23 times, the most by a pitcher in a World Series game since pitch tracking began eighteen years ago (2008).
Yesavage has two of the seven postseason games in which a rookie struck out 11+ batters. (He struck out 11 Yankees in ALDS 2.) He's the first rookie in postseason history with multiple 10+-strikeout games and the first to do so before his 23rd birthday.
Yesavage became the second pitcher in World Series history with 10+ strikeouts in the first five innings. He joined Sandy Koufax (1963 WS 1, Yankees).
Yesavage is the second pitcher to have a 10+K postseason game in his career, joining Gerrit Cole. Yesavage is the first to it twice in the same postseason (i.e., his "career").
Yesavage made only three MLB starts before this postseason and did not record 10 strikeouts in any of them. He's is the first pitcher in history to have his first two career 10+ strikeout games in the postseason. He has more strikeouts in the World Series (17) than in the regular season (16).
Yesavage became the youngest pitcher with 10+ strikeouts in a World Series game (22 years and 93 days). Smoky Joe Wood of the Red Sox was 22-349 when he struck out 11 Giants in 1912 WS 1.
Yesavage is the third-youngest pitcher with 10+ strikeouts in any postseason game. The previous two: John Candelaria (21-335, 1975 NLCS 3, 14 K vs Reds) and himself (!) (22-69, 2025 ALDS 2, 11 K vs Yankees).
Happy Halloween!
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