G11: Rays 3, Red Sox 2

Rays    - 000 030 000 - 3  8  0
Red Sox - 001 001 000 - 2  5  0

Five straight Rays batters reached base in the fifth inning, marring Lester's (7-7-3-2-8, 109) night and giving Price (7.2-5-2-2-3, 116) and the Tampa pen enough of a lead to hold off the Red Sox. Boston, now 2-9, dropped into last place in the East, 5 GB the Orioles, who were rained out in New York.

With one out in the fifth and Boston up 1-0 (thanks to a Darnell McDonald solo shot), Lester surrendered singles to the bottom three hitters in the Rays lineup: Kelly Shoppach, Dan Johnson, and Elliot Johnson. Sam Fuld was safe on a fielder's choice (Adrian Gonzalez grabbed a dribbler on the first base line and threw home, but Shoppach was safe) and the game was tied. Johnny Damon singled to center and two more runs scored.

Boston got one run back in the sixth when Dustin Pedroia led off with a double and scored on Jed Lowrie's double (his second of the game) with outs. Mike Cameron grounded out to third to end the inning.

In the eighth, Pedroia walked with one out and Kevin Youkilis was hit by a pitch with two outs, but Lowrie flew out to left-center. Boston sent three pinch-hitters to the plate against Kyle Farnsworth in the ninth: Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D. Drew struck out, and David Ortiz flew out to right.

Dept. of Strange Small Sample Size Statements: Jerry Remy mentioned four-game hitting streaks three times in the first four innings. In the first inning, he said Damon had a four-game hitting streak coming into the game. In the third, Fuld singled and Remy announced that he now had a four-game hitting streak. When Youkilis singled in the fourth, Remy said, "Now a four-game hitting streak for Youkilis, it's starting to come together." ... In the first inning, Don Orsillo made a note of Pedroia's high batting average (.563) at Fenway Park this season. Pedroia and the Red Sox had played four games at home.

David Price / Jon Lester

Last week, we heard a lot of statements like "no 0-4 team has ever won a pennant" (and I posted many of them here)*, but shouldn't we be looking at games behind in the standings rather than a team's won-loss record?

* And Peter Abraham has some more today:

ACTA Sports sent ... examined the first 10 games played by all teams from 2002-10. There were 39 teams that went 0-3 [typo?] their first 10 games.

Of those 39 teams, only one team won 90 games (the 2002 Angels) and only two others (the 2006 Padres and the 2007 Phillies) made the playoffs.

Here's the good news: The 2002 Angels won 99 games and the World Series after a 3-7 start. They also had John Lackey.

The Red Sox (4.5 GB) are trying to win the AL East (or the wild card). So while 2-8 is a very bad won-loss record (32-130 over an entire season, which would be the worst record in AL history), it should be looked at in context of the division's other teams. Rather than asking how many 2-8 teams have made the playoffs in baseball history -- because teams from 1905 or 1952 or 2008 have nothing to do with the 2011 Red Sox, we should be asking:

Can the 2011 Red Sox play at least 5 games better than their rivals over the next 152 games?

I say they can, especially when two of the three teams above them are the Orioles and Blue Jays.
Tonight: Orioles/Yankees (7 PM) and Blue Jays/Mariners (10 PM). Last night, the Mariners trailed 7-0 during the seventh-inning stretch, but rallied to win 8-7, thanks in part to three consecutive bases-loaded walks in the eighth.

Is Eight LOB Per Game "Astounding"?

In his pre-game notes, Peter Abraham stated that the Red Sox

have left an astounding 81 runners on base in 10 games.

Is an average of 8 LOB per game really "astounding"?

Here are the number of games in each of the last five seasons in which the Red Sox left eight or more men on base:

2006: 84 of 162 (51.9%)
2007: 93 of 162 (57.4%)
2008: 86 of 162 (53.1%)
2009: 77 of 162 (47.5%)
2010: 77 of 162 (47.5%)
     417 of 810 (51.5%)

If something happens roughly every other game, I do not think it can be described as "astounding".

What about the average number of men left on base per game?

2006: 8.0
2007: 8.0
2008: 7.8
2009: 7.5
2010: 7.4

It's interesting that the Red Sox have been steadily leaving fewer men on base per game for the last five seasons. But more importantly, leaving eight men on base per game is not astounding. In fact, for the Red Sox over the last half-decade, it's almost average (literally).

Even when Boston led all MLB teams in runs scored for three straight seasons -- 2003-05 -- they still left roughly eight men on base in every game.

2003: 961 runs (54 more than the #2 MLB team); averaged 7.6 LOB per game

2004: 949 runs (52 more than the #2 MLB team); averaged 7.8 LOB per game

2005: 910 runs (24 more then the #2 MLB team); averaged 7.7 LOB per game

Four other high-scoring teams:

2007 Yankees
Led MLB with 968 runs
82 games with 8+ LOB - averaged 7.6 LOB per game

1999 Cleveland
Led MLB with 1,009 runs
84 games with 8+ LOB - averaged 7.5 LOB per game

1950 Red Sox
Led MLB with 1,027 runs
86 games (of 154) with 8+ LOB - averaged 8.3 LOB per game

1931 Yankees
All-time record of 1,067 runs
80 games (of 155) with 8+ LOB - averaged 7.9 per game

Groovin'

Terry Francona:

Everything went to the middle of the plate. ... seven balls hit right on the barrel. We love when guys throw strikes, but there were balls that were middle-middle to the first seven hitters. Tonight, he was right down the middle.

Tito was blunt, and correct.

Francona: "[Y]ou're excited for the game, and in the second inning you're in survival mode so you don't ruin the bullpen."

The Rays never had scored 16 runs against the Red Sox. They beat Boston 15-9 on July 24, 2003, and 14-5 on both May 9, 2009 and September 7, 2010.

Tampa Bay scored a whopping 44% (16 of 36) of their total runs last night. ... After scoring 20 times in their first nine games, they nearly doubled that total last night. ... Six of the Rays' 18 doubles were hit last night. ... Nearly one-third of their extra-base hits this year (9 of 29) were in last night's game. ... Tampa Bay raised its team batting by 38 points (.163 to .201) and team slugging percentage by 63 points (.284 to .347).

The Globe's Peter Abraham says it's time to trade Matsuzaka, though it would be a strict salary dump and

would not be easy. The Red Sox would have to eat a bunch of money [Dice is due roughly $20 million] and they probably wouldn't get much back for him, maybe just a couple of mid-level prospects.

But it has to be done.

Matsuzaka is 13-14 with a 5.34 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP over the last three seasons. That includes going 0-4 with a 7.54 ERA in his last seven starts. ...

[Trading him] would cost them a lot of money, but at this point putting him in a game is counterproductive to winning.

Steve Buckley adds: "[I]t's quite possible that no Red Sox player in recent memory was booed as badly as Matsuzaka was last night.

I would not be annoyed if Matsuzaka was no longer on the team, but there is no way Theo Epstein -- who understands a sunk cost -- will trade him now. Making such a drastic decision a mere 11 days into a six-month season would be done purely out of panic, a reaction based not on logic but to appease the yowling portion of the fan base who wants the GM to do something. That is the exact opposite of Epstein's successful way of doing business.

Matsuzaka had a below league-average 93 ERA+ last year, but among American League fifth starters, that would have ranked as 2nd best (Jake Peavy of the White Sox was at 94). He'll get a few more starts -- and if the dismal outings continue, he may develop an "injury".

G10: Rays 16, Red Sox 5

Rays    - 160 113 004 - 16 20  1
Red Sox - 001 100 111 -  5 10  1

It was a nightmare evening for the Red Sox, as Tampa Bay nearly matched its runs scored total for their previous nine games (20).

The 1-8 team that began the day with a MLB-worst team OPS of .516 (.163/.232/.284) raked Matsuzaka (2-8-7-2-2, 47) over the coals in the second, as the first seven batters reached base. Terry Francona allowed Dice to start the third, but after a single and a walk, Tito went to the pen; his walk to the mound drew perhaps the loudest cheers of the night. The Rays later smacked Tim Wakefield and former Rays reliever Dan Wheeler around.

It's not worth rehashing any of what happened in this game -- I don't want to write it and you don't want to read it -- but I will point out that Boston's first two hits were triples from Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz.

Jeremy Hellickson / Daisuke Matsuzaka

Hellickson, who turned 24 three days ago, is the rookie right-hander that the Rays (1-8) hope will take Matt Garza's place in the rotation. Baseball Prospectus 2011 ranked Hellickson as the #9 prospect:

Hellickson doesn't have the kind of raw stuff that normally lands a player in the top 10, but he's hardly a finesse pitcher. His fastball, curve, and changeup are all at least a tick above average, but it's what he does with his arsenal that is so special. There are decade-plus veterans who don't have Hellickson's polish, as he varies the movement of his fastball and places all of his offerings in the strike zone with laser-like precision. The Rays will find a way to get him to the big leagues this year, and some scouts have already broken an unwritten rule by comparing him to a young Greg Maddux.

Hellickson made his 2011 debut on April 6 against the Angels: 5.2-6-3-2-10, 99. He allowed single runs in three separate innings. "I obviously need to throw my fastball more. I fell in love with my curveball a little bit too much last game." Last year, on September 7, Hellickson allowed three runs in 1.2 innings of relief against Boston.

Last Wednesday in Cleveland, Matsuzaka allowed three runs in five innings, while throwing 96 pitches. (WEEI preview of tonight's game)

The Orioles (6-3) and Yankees (5-4) begin a series in New York tomorrow. The Blue Jays (5-4) are in Seattle tonight.

Details of Clay Buchholz's new contract:
2011: $550,000 (+ $1 million signing bonus)
2012: $3.5 million
2013: $5.5 million
2014: $7.7 million
2015: $12 million
2016: $13 million team option (or $245,000 buyout)
2017: $13.5 million team option (or $500,000 buyout)
(2017 option increases to $14 million if Buchholz finishes either first or second in Cy Young voting during the contract.)

50 Years Ago Today

On April 11, 1961, Carl Yastrzemski made his major league debut, in a 5-2 loss to the Kansas City A's at Fenway Park.

Yaz played left field and batted fifth. He singled in his first plate appearance. Dick Howser also made his debut that day, as Kansas City's shortstop.

Also: 5,000 days ago, Curt Schilling stole the only base of his career. ... It was with the Phillies on August 22, 1997, in the seventh inning of a game against the Dodgers. Schilling tried stealing another base with the Diamondbacks on July 28, 2000, but was thrown out.

Gonzalez Say His Hand Is Fine

Adrian Gonzalez did not have any x-rays taken of his left hand, which was hit by a CC Sabathia fastball in the fifth inning of last night's game.

Gonzalez played the rest of the game, and iced the hand afterwards.

I don't think it's broken or anything. I was able to swing the bat. I'm going to be fine. There isn't any pain, other than a little bit of tingling or numbness.

G9: Red Sox 4, Yankees 0

Yankees - 000 000 000 - 0  2  0
Red Sox - 001 000 21x - 4 12  0

Beckett allowed only two hits over eight innings, and established a career-high against the Yankees with 10 strikeouts (8-2-0-1-10, 103). Jonathan Papelbon pitched a perfect ninth. Beckett and Bot combined to retire the last 17 Yankees batters of the game.

It was Beckett's first double-digit strikeout game since July 27, 2009.

Marco Scutaro, batting at the bottom of the order, reached base four times; his two-run double off Joba Chamberlain in the seventh gave the Red Sox a 3-0 cushion.

Boston had at least two runners on base in seven of its eight innings. The Sox loaded the bases with no outs in the third. They had a run wiped off the board when Kevin Youkilis slid out of the baseline trying to break up a double play at second base. Mike Cameron immediately singled to score the run "again".

Facing Joba in the seventh, David Ortiz walked. One out later, J.D. Drew walked, Jason Varitek singled, and Scutaro doubled. Freddie Garcia walked Youkilis to open the eighth and gave up an RBI double to Ortiz that sailed into the triangle on the fly.

Dustin Pedroia singled three times and was walked intentionally. He had three hits in each of the three games against the Yankees. His 9-for-13 showing raised his average from .227 to .400. His OPS rocketed from .488 to 1.019!

In addition to his double, Scuatro singled and walked twice. Adrian Gonzalez (who was hit on the left hand by a Sabathia (5.2-9-1-4-4, 118) pitch in the fifth), Youkilis, Ortiz were each on base three times.

All of the other AL East teams lost today, so the Jays and Yankees are 1 GB the Orioles, with the Red Sox 4 GB. The Rays, who come to Fenway tomorrow, are 5 GB.

CC Sabathia / Josh Beckett

Red Sox, Buchholz Agree To Four-Year Extension

The Red Sox and Clay Buchholz have agreed to a four-year contract extension, worth approximately $30 million. A formal announcement will be made later today.

The contract -- a similar arrangement to the one the team made with Jon Lester in 2009 -- buys out Buchholz's three arbitration-eligible years and one year of free agency (2012-15). It also has options for 2016 and 2017.

Buchholz turns 27 this August.

Pedro Would Like To Pitch, Retire With Boston

Pedro Martinez talks to Joe Bescia of the New York Times:

If a major league team called, how soon could you be ready to pitch in a game?

I'm in shape right now and I'm training and I'm playing catch, so getting to full strength would probably take me a month, month and a half, to be on a mound. ...

If the Yankees, the Phillies and the Red Sox called you to pitch and offered the same salary, which team would you sign with?

I'd probably have to say the Red Sox. I would like to win a World Series in the National League, so the Phillies are in there, too. But for the time I'm going to be playing, I think Boston is more suitable so that I can retire with the Boston Red Sox and go to the Hall of Fame with the same hat.

Who will win the National and American League pennants and the World Series this year?

I believe if the pitching staff stays healthy, I'd pick the Phillies to win the World Series and National League. In the American League, I'd probably have to go with the Red Sox. They're loaded. They have pitching, they have everything, so I think they're due.

Damn it, we are due!

With the way the staff has pitched over the last week, a 39-year-old Pedro -- who last pitched in Game 6 of the 2009 World Series -- doesn't seem like that bad of a fill-in option. If someone gilloolys John Lackey's knee, maybe we can find out.

Inside The Numbers (To A Likely Annoying Degree):

Pedro was also asked which hitter gave him the most trouble:

Edgar Martinez. He'd foul off so many pitches! He'd foul off 11 or 12 before you'd get him out or he'd get the hit. He had my pitch count really high.

Edgar Martinez faced Pedro 33 times. He was 3-for-25 (all singles, no RBI), with seven walks (.120/.333/.120) and 11 strikeouts. If Edgar was a tough batter to face, it did not show up in the results.

Even without looking at the list of all 33 plate appearances (and especially since I'm bringing this up), you likely already know that Martinez never actually fouled off 11 or 12 pitches against Pedro.

His longest AB against Pedro lasted a total of 10 pitches. That happened once, on April 11, 1998, in the first game he ever faced him. Edgar also had one 9-pitch AB, one 8-pitch AB, and one 7-pitch AB. The most common number of pitches seen was four (10 times) and six (8 times). Pedro threw four or fewer pitches in 19 of his 33 PA (58%).

Edgar twice hit four consecutive foul balls off Pedro. In total, Edgar fouled off only 30 of the 150 pitches he saw against Pedro. In nearly half of his PAs (16 of 33), he did not hit any foul balls.

San Diego's "Dog Tags For Kids" Promo Cancelled

Kap Fulton, who petitioned the San Diego Padres to cancel their military-themed weekend promotions -- including "Dog Tags For Kids" on "Military Opening Day", set for today -- emailed me an update:

The Padres have removed the Dog Tags promotion for this Sunday's Military Opening Day and replaced it with "Padres Posters for Kids" ... Apparently, that idea won out over ... "Biological Chemicals for Preteens" [or] "Islamophobia Day for the Elderly".

The Padres' website still lists April 10 as "Military Opening Day" and the other Military Appreciation Days remain on the calendar. But considering the long-standing connection the Padres have with the military, it's fantastic that the team changed any of its plans.

It doesn't look like too many blogs wrote about Fulton's campaign. Fulton's petition was posted at Baseball Think Factory (where the first page of comments had a predictably high level of stupidity and snark (nothing against BTF; that's just the way these things go); I did not venture into page 2). Back on February 28, Gaslamp Ball (a Padres blog) wrote:

We took a poll and while only [203] of you participated, 22% of you agreed with Kap. The rest thought that the tags served to support the military.

Admittedly at first I thought Kap was overreacting ... Then I read a little bit about the history of dog tags to see if they served any other purpose. It turns out they serve one primary purpose ["to identify Marines who fall in battle and secure a suitable burial for them"].

I started to see the issue from Kap's point of view, maybe he was right, giving dog tags to kids is a little macabre. That's not to say that I would have any problem letting my hypothetical children wear them, because kids wouldn't view them in the same way.

I question how Gaslamp knows the inner thoughts of "kids" (all of them?), but it's always nice to see people who will do some research, consider a belief that is so entrenched in their minds that they can no longer conceive of it as an opinion, and be open to even a semi-change of heart.

Kap also pointed me towards a Press Action post suggesting that the Nationals, who during the third inning of every home game "salute a group of soldiers currently receiving treatment at the nearby Walter Reed Army Hospital", also honor America's anti-warriors, as well, i.e., "the people who've made great sacrifices and efforts to stop the U.S. wars on Iraq and Afghanistan and who were active against previous U.S. wars of aggression".

The post, which I believe was written by Mark Hand, the editor of Press Action and a Nats fan, offers some possibilities for future games, including Ray McGovern (an Army veteran and CIA analyst for nearly three decades), Cindy Sheehan, Daniel Ellsberg, and Bradley Manning.

G8: Yankees 9, Red Sox 4

Yankees - 020 321 100 - 9 13  0
Red Sox - 001 300 000 - 4 10  1

Ivan Nova / Clay Buchholz

Terry Francona:

I've never seen a team so happy to be 1-6.

Based on Nova's 2010 splits, the Red Sox should be teeing off on him in the fourth inning or so:

                PA   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
Pitches 1-25    57  .212  .281  .288  .569
Pitches 26-50   60  .226  .305  .302  .607
Pitches 51-75   55  .373  .400  .588  .988
Pitches 76-100  12  .250  .500  .375  .875

Dustin Pedroia has hit a home run in the last three home openers. The only other Boston player to have done that is Fred Lynn (1978-80).

Jere was at Fenway yesterday and snapped this shot of a fellow optimist:

Doubront Activated, Reyes DFA

Felix Doubront has been activated from the disabled list (sore elbow), taking the roster spot of Dennys Reyes, who was designated for assignment.

Terry Francona:

We love Doubront. ... I know it was a short leash with Dennys, but we need to try to win some games. ... I've wanted [Doubront] to be in the bullpen. I love him in the bullpen this year. I think, eventually, he will be a starter for us, but I was hoping he would be in our bullpen the whole time. I think he fits there very well.

Reyes pitched in four of Boston's first five games, and had a decent outing only once. He faced 10 batters altogether, allowing two hits, two walks, two hit batsmen, and three runs. Reyes has agreed to go to Pawtucket if he passes through waivers unclaimed.

Theo Rallies The Troops

Before Friday's home opener, Theo Epstein spoke to the Red Sox players.

Daniel Bard:

On a scale of one to awesome, it was awesome. ... I didn't really know what to expect when he wanted to talk. But it turned out to be some good words and probably just what we needed. He's showing he still has faith in us. He has more than just the team money invested, he's emotionally invested. He wants to see us do well just as much as anybody.

Mike Cameron:

That was one of the best ones I've heard. ... It was refreshing to see that type of thing. I don't know how he came up with it, but he's right there with all the Nobel Peace Prize winners with that one. It just kind of put it all in perspective. We grind so hard sometimes, and expect to be great so much, we forget about shortcomings and how you overcome those things. It was nothing about baseball. It was about getting your mind right.

Adrian Gonzalez:

That talk was needed. He did a great job with it. He's a figure that people listen to, and so when it comes from a guy like that, you want to go out there and play hard for him and for the entire organization and the city of Boston.

David Ortiz:

I've been here nine years and I never thought he had those words all lined up for us. I never heard him talking before. He came out and put everybody in a good mood. I had goosebumps after he finished talking, I'm telling you. He should record that and throw it out there because that should get everybody in a good mood.

Ortiz:

I was shocked. Theo doesn't talk. Sometimes he walks right by you and doesn't see you. ... Before I saw it totally differently. Before it was, "What the [expletive] is going on? People want to go crazy after 10 games." But now I see it. This is the Boston Red Sox, not the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'm not trying to say anything bad about their organization, but you know what I mean. Every hit, every play, every at-bat, every swing, these people, they care. They worry about everything, and sometimes it gets out of hand. Trust me, there were a lot of sad faces these past six games. Even [with] the guys who had good games.

Jonathan Papelbon:

Once in a while the lead man has got to light the fire. That's what he did. He let us know we're a good team. And when it comes from the top, it trickles on down.

Dustin Pedroia:

We got back from the road trip, we're 0-6, that's the worst feeling as a player, with the expectations we had. I just came in here thinking, we have to find a way to win. I don't care how we do it. I don't care if it's the ugliest win of all time. We need that win. We played great, man. We played good and we'll continue tomorrow.

What I'll Be Reading

It arrived at my front door a few hours after the Red Sox's win. This has been a good day!

Manny Ramirez, Facing Positive Drug Test, Announces Retirement After 19 Seasons

Manny Ramirez announced his retirement today after 19 major league seasons, amid reports that he tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug during spring training and was facing a 100-game suspension.

Ramirez, 38, who played for the Red Sox for nearly eight years and was the MVP of the 2004 World Series: "I'm at ease. God knows what's best [for me]. I'm now an officially retired baseball player. I'll be going away on a trip to Spain with my old man."

Tampa Bay Rays vice president Andrew Friedman:

It was very, very refreshing in terms of how he went about his business. The way he prepared. I think it rubbed off on a lot of our young players. And we were very bullish on what he'd be able to do this year ... We were extremely optimistic that he would be a significant part of our offense. ... [I]t was important for us to sit down with him before we signed him, and we understood that it was a risk ... but we were cautiously optimistic that he would be a force for us in our lineup.

MLB's statement:

Major League Baseball recently notified Manny Ramirez of an issue under Major League Baseball's Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment program. Rather than continue with the process under the program, Ramirez has informed MLB that he is retiring as an active player. If Ramirez seeks reinstatement in the future, the process under the drug program will be completed.

Manny played in five games for the Rays this season, with only one hit in 17 at-bats.

David Ortiz:

"It's crazy, man. That was the last thing I was expecting, for him to retire and go through this situation. I don't really know the details and how everything went down. I'm just waiting how the rest of the stuff is going to come out. It's sad, man, to see a player with that much talent, and an unbelievable career, to get him out of the game with negativity. ...

If you see Manny from the outside, your thoughts will be totally different. But if you play with Manny Ramirez, I guarantee you you're going to look at a hard-working guy, the guy who tried to get better every single day. ... When I saw him [when we played the Rays this spring], seriously, I saw him in the best shape I have ever seen him in. When you watch him hit, you were like, "Wow. He's back." He played a few games against us, and the talk in our dugout was the way he [was] dealing with hitting and his approach. That was the Manny Ramirez that everybody knows.

Bobby Jenks played with Ramirez in Chicago and was very surprised by the news:

I got a chance to play with him and I really thought he was an outstanding guy. He's a great guy, a good teammate and down to earth for being such a superstar, which I thought was pretty cool because I didn't know what to expect.

Omar Vizquel, Manny's teammate in Cleveland:

Different people have different thoughts about Manny. It just depends on how you see it. A lot of people don't take it really seriously when they talk about Manny Ramirez. But the guys who have been in the lineup with him and know how he works, his work ethic, he shows up at 2 o'clock every day, he takes extra batting practice every day and it doesn't matter if he went 5-for-5 the day before. ... There are actions that he does on the field that really don't reflect what type of player he was. But he was just an amazing guy.

Yankees catcher Russell Martin played with Manny in Los Angeles:

He's a good guy; I think he's just misunderstood a little bit. From what I've seen of Manny, his work ethic's incredible, he comes to play every day and he has fun playing the game. And sometimes, on defense, when he makes a mistake, he overdoes it sometimes, but he has a passion for the game and I learned a lot from him, especially hitting-wise.

G7: Red Sox 9, Yankees 6

Yankees - 211 110 000 - 6  8  2
Red Sox - 150 010 20x - 9 12  0

On Tuesday, after Boston had lost its fourth straight game, David Ortiz said

All it takes is one click, man. One click. That's what changes things around.

That click may very well have been Dustin Pedroia's solo home run into the Monster Seats in the bottom of the first.

Lackey had been squeezed on a few pitches in the top half and he walked two Yankees, both of whom scored on Robinson Cano's double to center. But Pedroia went deep, and although the Yankees added a run in the second, the Red Sox batted around in their second inning, ending Hughes's day after only 14 batters (2-7-6-2-0, 46).

It began with three singles from J.D. Drew, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Jacoby Ellsbury. Marco Scutaro's fielder's choice scored one run, Pedroia's single scored two, Adrian Gonzalez's single scored another run, and David Ortiz singled home the frame's fifth run.

Lackey (5-7-6-2-2, 91) methodically blew the three-run cushion. He allowed runs in all five of his innings, and when he walked off the mound in the fifth, the game was tied 6-6.

Saltalamacchia's double in the home half of the inning scored Kevin Youkilis (who walked three times) and gave the Sox the lead for good. The bullpen quartet of Alfredo Aceves, Bobby Jenks, Daniel Bard, and Jonathan Papelbon allowed only one hit and two walks over the final four innings. Bard and Papelbon looked especially strong.

Phil Hughes / John Lackey

The weekend games:

Saturday: Ivan Nova / Clay Buchholz
Sunday: CC Sabathia / Josh Beckett

Pedroia: "You're Either Two Feet In Now Or You're Two Feet Out"

Fangraphs' community projections had the Red Sox at an estimated 98 wins this season, and the Yankees at 94. With Boston's 0-6 start, Dave Cameron writes that any projected gap between the two teams has essentially been wiped out.

Even if we agree that the Red Sox are still the better team than New York right now, Boston's slow start has made the race in the AL East a virtual coin flip.

It's just six games, but these results count in the standings, too. While we shouldn't get carried away with the doom and gloom, the reality is that the Sox have indeed frittered away a large percentage of their chances of winning the division this year. I'd still bet on them to make the playoffs, but their chances are now quite a bit lower than they were a week ago.

Cameron dismisses scary statements like "no team that has ever begun the season 0-6 has gone on to play in the World Series, and only two out of the 85 teams to ever start 0-5 (or worse) had even made the playoffs" because

there's a huge sampling bias problem – most teams that start a season with a long losing streak kind of suck. By virtue of filtering only teams that have lost a bunch of games to start the season, we're left looking at the records of teams who inherently lacked talent in most cases...

And the 2011 Red Sox, despite their play in the first week of the season, are not a team that lacks talent.

The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog has run some season simulations based on current data and also based on the potential outcomes of this weekend's series.

Despite Cameron's statement, here are some scary numbers:

After six games, the Red Sox have a team batting average of .181 (13th out of 14 AL teams), an on-base percentage of .269 (11th), and a slugging percentage of .275 (13th).

Adrian Gonzalez leads the team with a .304 average. The second-best hitting regular? J.D. Drew, at .231.

Outside of Gonzalez (and David Ortiz's two home runs), no one in the lineup has done much of anything:

                AVG   OBP   SLG
Ellsbury       .167  .259  .333
Crawford       .174  .240  .174
Pedroia        .227  .261  .227
Gonzalez       .304  .360  .522
Youkilis       .105  .292  .211
Ortiz          .227  .292  .500
Drew           .231  .286  .308
Saltalamacchia .071  .188  .071
Scutaro        .176  .222  .176

More than half of the batting order -- five of the nine hitters -- are batting under .200. (The bench is 1-for-16 (.063), with four walks.)

Dustin Pedroia has commented about hitters swinging at bad pitches and, in fact, he is one of the main culprits. Over his career, Pedroia has swung at roughly 25% of pitches out of the strike zone. In the first six games of 2011 -- admittedly, a small sample -- he's swinging at 56% of them. And from 2007-10, he made contact with 92% of those out-of-zone pitches; this year, it's only 78%.

Peter Abraham reports that no American League team that started a season 0-6 has ever finished higher than third place. Since 1900, only two 0-6 teams — the 1974 Pirates and 1995 Reds — have made the playoffs. Abraham concludes (my emphasis):

It would be silly to say the season is over with 156 games left. But if this streaks gets to nine or 10 games, that's a hole with no escape.

So it's silly to say the season is over now, but after only three more games, it could absolutely be over? Man, this Yankees series is more of a must-win that I thought.

Ortiz and Pedroia talked about coming home to Fenway.

Ortiz:

There's not two Red Sox teams, there's only one. You have to cheer for this one if you're a Red Sox fan, right?

Pedroia:

It'll be good to have someone cheering for us for a change. You're either two feet in now or you're two feet out. Let us know now, because we're coming.

Aceves Called Up As Albers Goes On DL

The Globe reports that Matt Albers is headed for the disabled list with a sore lat muscle (behind his shoulder) and Alfredo Aceves is on his way to Boston from Pawtucket.

Albers retired three of his four batters on Opening Day. He also pitched an inning in Cleveland on Tuesday, striking out the side and walking one.

Aceves was set to start the PawSox's season-opener on Thursday night, but was scratched before game time. Scott Atchinson got the ball instead and struck out eight over 4.2 innings in Pawtucket's 2-1 win. Hideki Okajima pitched a perfect eighth inning.

G6: Cleveland 1, Red Sox 0

UPDATED: Links to Brooks Baseball's pitch f/x data on Ortiz, Santana, and LaPorta ABs in the 4th and 5th innings.

Red Sox - 000 000 000 - 0  4  0
Spiders - 000 000 01x - 1  3  0

After Lester's day was done (7-3-0-3-9, 109), Cleveland scored the game's only run in the eighth off Daniel Bard. Adam ".294 Career OBP" Everett walked and, while Bard fell behind Orlando Cabrera 2-0, stole second. Cabrera bunted him to third, and Asdrubal Cabrera dropped down a suicide squeeze to bring in the run.

Down to their final out against Chris Perez in the ninth, David Ortiz walked and Darnell McDonald pinch-ran. J.D. Drew lined the first pitch back to Perez, and the ball caromed off his leg towards Everett at third. Everett had no play on Drew, and it looked as if the Red Sox would have something resembling a last-minute rally.

But McDonald had rounded second too aggressively, and when he tried to get back, he slipped a bit. Everett whipped the ball to Orlanda Cabrera and McDonald was tagged out before he could get his hand back on the bag.

And "just like that", the Red Sox had lost their sixth straight game.

McDonald:

I'm trying to be aggressive. I'm trying to make them make the throw, lost my footing out there and just got caught in no-man's land. I was just trying to be aggressive and make them make the throw to first base.

Scoring opportunities were scarce against Lester and Carmona (7-2-0-2-4, 109). A Boston rally in the third was thwarted by a blown call at second base. With one out, Marco Scutaro walked and Jacoby Ellsbury singled. Carl Crawford grounded to first and Matt LaPorta's wide throw to second pulled A. Cabrera's foot off the bag. However, umpire Dan Iassogna said that Cabrera was able to tag Ellsbury's leg in time. Replayed showed that LBJ was safe. So instead of bases loaded/one out, the Sox had first and third/two outs. Dustin Pedroia flied to deepish center to end the inning.

In the eighth, Scutaro singled and Ellsbury walked. Facing Rafael Perez, Crawford grounded to third, moving the runners to second and third, and Pedroia grounded out to the pitcher.

The outside half of home plate umpire Jerry Meals's strike zone was inconsistent all day, and his rulings on what constituted a strike seemed to favour Carmona. In the fourth, Ortiz took two outside pitches in the exact same spot. One was called a ball (for a full count) and the next one was called strike three. That inconsistency became doubly annoying a few minutes later, when in the home half of the inning, Meals ruled a similar 3-2 pitch to Carlos Santana was ball 4. And Meals did not call two other outside-edge pitches strikes to LaPorta to begin the fifth. So LaPorta ended up walking on what was most likely a 1-3 pitch.

[Update: I looked at the f/x data for those three AB. For Otiz, the 5th pitch (ball 3) was outside and the 6th pitch (strike 3) was on the corner. Ball 3 to Santana was a hair off the corner; a borderline pitch. And the first and third pitches to LaPorta were not too far out of the zone, but, according to the data, they were outside. Cumulative data shows neither pitcher receiving a significant advantage.]

The Red Sox will open Fenway Park tomorrow afternoon against the Yankees (4-2).

Jon Lester / Fausto Carmona

Lester hopes to bounce back from a bad Opening Day start (5.1-6-5-1-0, 88; 3 HR allowed) in Texas, though compared to the shellacking the White Sox gave Carmona (3-11-10-1-5, 88), he was nearly lights out.

       Winless    First      Finish
        Start    25 Gms
1905     0-6      10-15      78- 74
1927     0-6       8-17      51-103
1945     0-8      10-15      71- 83
1966     0-5       7-18      72- 90
1996     0-5       6-19      85- 77

G5: Cleveland 8, Red Sox 4

Red Sox - 020 000 200 - 4  7  0
Spiders - 210 004 01x - 8  8  0

The Red Sox squandered several scoring chances in the early innings, and poor pitching and a mental error led to a four-run sixth as Cleveland broke the game open. Boston dropped to 0-5 for only the sixth time in team history (1905, 1927, 1945, 1966, 1996).

After Matsuzaka (5-6-3-3-2, 96) departed, Dennys Reyes hit two batters and walked another, leaving a bases-loaded, no-out mess for Dan Wheeler. Michael Brantley stung a liner to third that Kevin Youkilis dropped. Yook recovered, stepped on third to force Matt LaPorta, and threw home. Jason Varitek caught the ball and stepped on the plate, thinking he was forcing out Travis Buck. But Yook's play at third meant that Varitek had to tag Buck -- and he did not -- and so Buck crossed the plate, giving Cleveland a 4-2 lead. Four pitches later, Asdrubal Cabrera hit a three-run dong, and it was 7-2.

Adrian Gonzalez's two-run homer to right closed the gap to 7-4 in the seventh, but no Boston batter reached base after that.

The Red Sox's missed opportunities began in the first inning. Carl Crawford singled with one out and stole second, but Talbot fanned Dustin Pedroia and Gonzalez. In the second, the Red Sox led 1-0 and had the bases loaded with one out. Jacoby Ellsbury's grounder to first scored a second run before Crawford lined out to third.

In the third, Pedroia was hit by a pitch and took third on Gonzalez's double off the left field wall. Second and third, and no one out, but Youkilis was called out on strikes, David Ortiz popped to shortstop, and J.D. Drew was caught looking on a nasty curve.

In the fifth, Crawford walked and stole his second base of the night. With one out, and Crawford now on third, Gonzalez walked. Cleveland manager Manny Acta, with his team holding a 3-2 lead, went to his pen. Chad Durbin struck out Youkilis on three pitches and lefty Rafael Perez retired Ortiz on a weak grounder to first. The fifth inning may have been a little early to micro-manage a one-run game, but Acta saw the spark of a Boston rally and (figuring the visitors were likely to cash in at some point) moved aggressively to snuff it out.

Red Sox hitters struck out 11 times, with Ellsbury fanning three times, and Drew, Ortiz, and Marco Scutaro going down twice.

Daisuke Matsuzaka / Mitch Talbot

Well, At Least It's A Current Reference

I often chide sports columnists for making woefully out-of-date cultural references, but in this case, the reference -- which we may be reading for years -- is brand new:

Scott Lauber, Herald, April 6, 2011:

At about 8 last night, a few blocks from Progressive Field, Charlie Sheen appeared at the downtown Stage Theatre armed with a catchphrase that has been foreign to the Red Sox: Winning!

Peter Abraham, Globe, April 6, 2011:

As the Red Sox played the Cleveland Indians here last night, Charlie Sheen and his "Violent Torpedo of Truth" tour were at the State Theater only a short distance away. Here's some more truth: The Sox are more of a mess than the drug-addled actor at this point as they were beaten, 3-1, by the Indians.

Dan Shaughnessy, Globe, April 4, 2011:

So far, this looks a little like the Charlie Sheen Torpedo of Truth tour. Is it possible to be mathematically eliminated before you play your home opener?

Chuck Yarborough, Cleveland Plain Dealer, April 6, 2001:

That's right, Cleveland is at .500 on the season, and Boston isn't winning any more than Charlie Sheen is.

Jayson Stark, ESPN, April 5, 2011:

The 2011 baseball season hasn't been in progress much longer than the Charlie Sheen Madness Tour. So it's time to remember what your dad always told you: Beware of small samples.

Paul Rados, Yahoo!, April 6, 2011:

I was surprised to see only 9,025 fans in the stands for a game against the Red Sox. I suppose 42-degree weather in early April is a deterrent for some. Perhaps it was the Cleveland Cavaliers basketball game against the Charlotte Bobcats next door or the other two events — musical Les Miserables' opening night or Charlie Sheen's eclectic show.

Gordon Edes, ESPNBoston, April 5, 2001:

With temperatures expected to drop into the 30s Tuesday night, and a brisk wind blowing, only the hardiest souls are expected to show up at Progressive Field. Basketball’s Cavaliers are playing next door in Quickens Arena, and Charlie Sheen’s tour also is in town.

Geoffrey W. Challen, The Harvard Crimson, April 6, 2011:

You get a first sense of the amount of attention paid to teaching at the College by the fact that Harvard felt the need to launch a "Teaching and Learning Initiative." You don't hear about the Red Sox launching a "Winning the World Series Initiative" or Charlie Sheen launching a slightly simpler "Winning Initiative" - winning is a core part of their identities, not something they have to initiate.

More Meaningless Examples From The Past Offered (I Suppose) To Give You Hope, Though You Shouldn't Actually Be Worried

Peter Abraham, Globe:

• No 0-4 team has ever won the World Series.

• Only one 0-4 team made it to the World Series — the 1985 Cardinals.

• According to the Elias Sports Bureau, since 1995 only two out of 128 playoff teams reached the postseason after an 0-4 start — the 1999 Diamondbacks and the 1995 Reds.

I'm not sure what any of that really means. Usually an 0-4 team is a lousy team that didn't have much of a chance to win the World Series in the first place. ...

I would bet every World Series champion probably had a four-game losing streak at some point. The problem is that streak looks worse when it comes right away.

In the last 50 years, only two World Series champions have not had a losing streak as long as four games. The last team to do it, the 1988 Dodgers, had 10 separate three-game losing streaks.

WS Winners And Longest Losing Streak Of That Season
2010 Giants       - 7
2009 Yankees      - 5
2008 Phillies     - 6
2007 Red Sox      - 4 (3 times)
2006 Cardinals    - 8 (twice)
2005 White Sox    - 7
2004 Red Sox      - 5
2003 Marlins      - 6 (twice, both in May!)
2002 Angels       - 6
2001 Diamondbacks - 5
2000 Yankees      - 7
1999 Yankees      - 5
1998 Yankees      - 4
1997 Marlins      - 5
1996 Yankees      - 5
1995 Atlanta      - 5
1993 Blue Jays    - 6
1992 Blue Jays    - 5
1991 twins        - 7
1990 Reds         - 8
1989 A's          - 4
1988 Dodgers      - 3 (10 times)
1987 Twins        - 6
1986 Mets         - 4 (twice)
1985 Royals       - 5
1984 Tigers       - 4 (three times)
1983 Orioles      - 7 (twice)
1982 Cardinals    - 4
1981 Dodgers      - 4
1980 Phillies     - 6
1979 Pirates      - 6
1978 Yankees      - 4 (twice)
1977 Yankees      - 5 (twice)
1976 Reds         - 4
1975 Reds         - 6
1974 A's          - 4
1973 A's          - 5
1972 A's          - 4 (twice)
1971 Pirates      - 4 (twice)
1970 Orioles      - 3 (twice)
1969 Mets         - 5
1968 Tigers       - 4
1967 Cardinals    - 4
1966 Orioles      - 4 (four times)
1965 Dodgers      - 4
1964 Cardinals    - 5 (twice)
1963 Dodgers      - 5
1962 Yankees      - 6
1961 Yankees      - 4
1960 Pirates      - 4 (twice)

All of these lists mean absolutely nothing in terms of the 2011 Red Sox, but here's another one: a few teams that began the year 0-4 and their eventual record:

1928 A's          -  98-55  2nd in AL
1969 Twins        -  97-65  Won AL West
1977 Phillies     - 101-61  Won NL East
1977 Red Sox      -  97-64  2nd in AL East
1985 Cardinals    - 101-61  Won NL East and Pennant
1999 Diamondbacks - 100-62  Won NL West

Of course, there are examples in the other direction. In 1966, Cleveland began the year 10-0 and 14-1, and finished 81-81. So, look out, Baltimore.

G4: Cleveland 3, Red Sox 1

Red Sox - 010 000 000 - 1  4  1
Spiders - 000 210 00x - 3  5  1

A dismal game in a dismal park in a dismal town.

Tomlin (7-3-1-3-3, 91) won the Battle of the Joshes. Beckett (5-5-3-4-4, 106) struggled the second time through the Cleveland order; he threw a total of 82 pitches in the third, fourth, and fifth innings, and allowed eight base runners.

The Sox bullpen, however, was superb. Matt Albers struck out the side in the sixth (with a one-out walk). Bobby Jenks allowed struck out the side in the seventh (but had a two-out walk). Daniel Bard pitched a perfect eighth, with two strikeouts.

Boston took an early lead after two were out in the second. David Ortiz walked, J.D. Drew doubled to right, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia singled to right. Drew was gunned down at the plate to end the inning.

The Red Sox did not get another runner past first base until they were down to their last out in the ninth. Pedroia singled with one down (he had the Sox's other two hits) and Adrian Gonzalez flied to left. Yook walked. With Ortiz at the plate, Pedroia took third, but Flo lined out to left to end the game, dropping the Sox to 0-4.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford were a combined 0-for-8 at the top of the order, and did not reach base.

Josh Beckett / Josh Tomlin

Tomlin is a 26-year-old right-hander who debuted last year, starting 12 games and finishing with a 4.56 ERA. He faced the Red Sox on August 5, pitching seven innings and giving up a grand slam to Adrian Beltre.

Beckett has made 143 starts for the Red Sox and Jason Varitek -- the only non-pitcher to not play in the Texas series -- has caught 111 of them. Beckett's Boston ERA with Tek behind the plate is 3.95; in the 32 non-Tek games, it's 5.53.

Here are the individual seasons:

                GS   IP    ERA    OPS
2006 with  Tek  22  135.0  4.93  .752    
     w/out Tek  12   69.2  5.17  .794
  
2007 with  Tek  29  192.2  3.32  .666
     w/out Tek   1    8.0  2.25  .577
  
2008 with  Tek  27  174.1  4.03  .700
     w/out Tek   0
  
2009 with  Tek  27  184.2  3.17  .625
     w/out Tek   6   27.2  8.46 1.033*
  
2010 with  Tek   6   36.1  7.18  .851
     w/out Tek  15   91.1  5.22  .850

* Beckett had some brutal games with George Kottaras and Victor Martinez in 2009, but the two games in which he allowed as many as eight runs both came with Varitek behind the dish.

Percentages And Perception

Several years ago, I read a study* that claimed how a team did in its first three games had a correlation (or could be predicted with a far greater degree of certainty than you would expect) to its final standing at the end of the season.

* - I am very annoyed, because I cannot find that article now.

I know that doesn't seem possible -- how could a team's W-L record in the first three games of a 162-game schedule be predictive of anything? (Could we do that with a player's stats? Over the last few seasons, the AL leader in plate appearances has had roughly 740 PA. The equivalent of 3:162 to 740 PA is 14 trips to the plate.)

Nevertheless, the data leads us in that direction. Beyond The Box Score says that of the 163 teams since 1900 that began a season 0-3, only seven made it to the World Series (4.29%). Twenty-eight teams finished in first or second place (17%). (Note, however, that for roughly two-thirds of the years under consideration (70 of 111), only one team from each eight-team league (10-team leagues for most of the 1960s) made the playoffs.)

Those seven pennant-winning teams:

1914 Athletics    99-53  Lost World Series 
1914 Braves       94-59  Won World Series 
1941 Dodgers     100-54  Lost World Series 
1973 Athletics    94-68  Won World Series
1983 Phillies     90-72  Lost World Series
1985 Cardinals   101-61  Lost World Series
1998 Yankees     114-48  Won World Series

Since 1900, 44 of the 166 teams that won their first three games -- as the Orioles (now 4-0) have done this season -- played in the World Series (28%) and 76 finished in first or second place (48%).

Another factoid making the round yesterday was that of the 80 teams to have qualified for the playoffs in the last 10 years, only three (3.75%) began the year by losing their first three games. By contrast, two-thirds of all playoff teams from 2000-2010 started the year 3-0 or 2-1.

I added up the teams since divisional play began in 1969, and counted 13 of 220 playoff teams (5.9%) began the season 0-3:

1969 Twins        - Lost ALCS
1973 Athletics    - Won World Series
1979 Reds         - Lost NLCS
1983 White Sox    - Lost ALCS
1983 Phillies     - Lost World Series
1985 Cardinals    - Lost World Series
1995 Reds         - Lost NLCS
1996 Cleveland    - Lost ALDS
1998 Yankees      - Won World Series
1999 Diamondbacks - Lost NLDS
2001 Cardinals    - Lost NLDS
2003 Atlanta      - Lost NLDS
2007 Phillies     - Lost NLDS

As long as the 1998 Yankees are being used as a reference point, I'll note that they had bad little patches in every month: April (1-4 to start the season), May (2-3), June (1-4), July (1-4), August (2-6), and September (4-8).

The 2001 Mariners went 4-7 in mid-June and 0-4 in mid-September on their way to a 116-46 finish. ... The 1906 Cubs had a 116-36 record -- and went 3-5 in mid-April (which left them with a 6-6 record, in 5th place in the NL) and 2-4 in mid-July.

And if you think isolating four or five games in the middle of a long season is silly ... well, that's my point.

The Red Sox still have a very good chance of finishing first or second in the East. Little losing streaks happen. It's up to you how much you want to worry about them.

3 Out, With 159 To Play

Dustin Pedroia:

We're all frustrated. We got outplayed. ... They did everything good. We didn't. ... We got outpitched, we got out-hit, they played better defense than us. They kicked our ass, that's it. We better show up and play better on whatever day we play again.

Terry Francona:

We're not very happy with the series. That's an understatement. I think there's a difference between being aggravated at a series as opposed to sitting around and panic enters.

Adrian Gonzalez:

I'm fully confident that, come September, we'll be either in first place or right in the middle of everything.

Clay Buchholz:

I don't think these guys missed a mistake pitch for 27 innings. ... I think everybody's a little bit shocked. But we have a lot of games left ... I wouldn't read too deep into it.

Theo Epstein:

Anytime you get swept and outplayed like that and you do have a good team, you're surprised. ... It's one series under the magnifying glass because it's the first one out of the chute.

And I might as well make the same comparison everyone else is:

1998 Yankees -  Began 0-3 - Outscored  6 - 21 - Finished 114-48
2011 Red Sox -  Began 0-3 - Outscored 11 - 26 - Finished    ?

When things go wrong, people often look around for someone to blame. So after the ghastly weekend series in Texas, who is the target? For Nick Cafardo, one of the main culprits is Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

The Sox hitched their wagon to Saltalamacchia, and his strong spring reinforced their evaluation.

Three poor games haven't changed that, but fans are wondering about the team's faith in him ... Saltalamacchia needs to prove he's a worthy successor [to Jason Varitek].

Tough to do when you've started the season 0 for 10 and when the staff you're handling has allowed 26 runs, 34 hits, and 11 homers in a three-game sweep ...

In one of the weekend game threads, I wondered (half-jokingly) when the Boston media would decide that the Red Sox's rough start was because the pitchers could not rely on the pitching calling from the computer mind of Varitek.

Last September, Cafardo wrote a bizarre column about Salty, one filled with speculation, innuendo and psychobabble from a doctor who, as I noted here,

has never met Saltalamacchia, never spoken to him, never examined him, knows absolutely nothing about his personal life or his baseball career, and has never read any report (or even read about a possible report) from any doctor or psychologist who might have actually met with Salty.

In today's column, Cafardo again puts Salty on the couch.

Saltalamacchia didn't have the best of times when he was a Ranger, and perhaps he wanted so badly to perform well against his old team that it worked in reverse. ...

When baseball people assess the Sox, they always question why the Sox have so much faith in Saltalamacchia. And at this point the team has to be all in with him because it has no real alternative. ... The clock is now ticking.

Shouldn't the clock be ticking on Cafardo's writing career? Put him in front of a keyboard and he's Cesar Crespo in a slump. He's roster filler for a Class A team.

Posnanski: The 32 Best Players in Baseball for 2011

Joe's "11,000-word monstrosity" will be posted to SI's website tomorrow, but he's included an early link on his blog.

I'm not considering seasons beyond. I'm not thinking about who is best to build my team around in 2014. Everything is built around 2011. ...

Now, "best year" is subjective, of course. Even non-regular readers by now know that I put almost no weight on wins or RBIs or batting average. I try my best to judge players by how much they help their teams win, and that includes offense, defense, pitching, base running, context and whatever else comes to mind.

There are four Red Sox on his list: Nos. 26, 22, 19, and 3.

About that #3 guy. Here are his stats*:

      AVG  OBP  SLG    OPS
2006 .311/.378/.527   .905  44 doubles  28 HR  108 RS   88 RBI
2007 .295/.358/.570   .928  64 doubles  40 HR  114 RS  128 RBI
2008 .308/.368/.578   .946  40 doubles  44 HR  126 RS  140 RBI
2009 .306/.402/.643  1.045  30 doubles  56 HR  118 RS  126 RBI
2010 .315/.402/.578   .980  42 doubles  40 HR   92 RS  118 RBI

* Actually, those are his stats if you doubled his road numbers for each season.

There should be no surprise about who tops the list. Pos:

Albert Pujols has a chance to be known as the greatest player in the history of baseball. ... [T]hrough age 30 he has more homers than Babe Ruth, more hits than Pete Rose, more RBIs than Hank Aaron, more runs than Rickey Henderson did at the same age. ...

Pujols' consistent brilliance is so staggering and mind-numbing ... that if you took his worst season* and multiplied it by 10, you'd have a first ballot, 90% elected, Hall of Famer.

* Would that be 2002? That year he only hit .314 with 34 homers, 127 RBIs and 118 runs scored.

Andy at the Baseball Reference Blog asks:

How often does neither starting pitcher get a decision?

This is an interesting question since far too many people -- including members of the media who should (and sometimes clearly do) know better -- look at a pitcher's won-loss record as a barometer of success. Of the 2,430 regular season games played in 2010:

Both starters get decisions      1,629      67.0%
Both starters get no-decision      570      23.5%
Only one starter gets a decision   231       9.5%

Flip Flop Fly Ball:

Be warned: you can't un-see the horror.

G3: Rangers 5, Red Sox 1

Red Sox - 000 000 100 - 1  5  0
Rangers - 011 010 11x - 5  9  1

The Rangers hit four more home runs today, giving them 11 dongs in their three-game sweep. Both Ian Kinlser and Nelson Cruz hit home runs in each of the three games.

Buchholz (6.1-5-4-2-3, 86) pitched better than his two predecessors, but his mates could not do anything with Harrison (7-5-1-2-8, 108) or the Texas bullpen (six up, six down).

Carl Crawford got his first hit as a Sock in the second inning, and he drove in Boston's only run with a seventh-inning single.

Clay Buchholz / Matt Harrison

Carl Crawford (0-for-7 with four strikeouts in the first two games) is bumped down to seventh in today's lineup and Adrian Gonzalez is up in the #3 spot. Jed Lowrie and Darnell McDonald are also in the starting lineup.

The Red Sox have not started a season 0-3 since 1996, when they lost their first five games (and were 2-12 and 3-15 in late April).

The Sox were 0-for-11 with RATS last night (4-for-23 in the two games). Since the start of the 2009 season, Boston has won only six of 21 games against the Rangers.

MLB Reminds Yankees About Not Using Illegal Hand Signals

On Friday, Keith Olbermann posted a photo of Yankees coaching assistant Brett Weber on Twitter. Weber's job is to sit in the stands behind the plate and chart pitches. In the Opening Day photo, he's wearing a headset and apparently giving hand signals to Yankee players on the field.

Olbermann said that Weber's gestures were "not suggestive of sign-stealing or anything like that", but MLB decided to look into the matter anyway. A spokesman said: "Communicating pitch types, pitch speed, through hand signals, is prohibited. We're going to call them to remind them what the rule [bulletin C-4] says."

Anthony McCarron, Daily News: "Some Yankee hitters waiting on-deck look for pitch speed from that employee instead of on the scoreboard ... believing the staffer [with his own radar gun] is more accurate. That would seem to be against the rules laid out in the bulletin."

Brian Cashman called the whole thing "silly" (though he did say the team would now abide by the rule) and made a crack about the "psychotics that obsessed about it all day". Cashman said that the stadium scoreboard radar gun was not working properly; according to an MLB.com reporter, one pitch was clocked at over 900 mph.

G2: Rangers 12, Red Sox 5

Red Sox - 020 100 200 -  5  8  0
Rangers - 102 621 00x - 12 15  1

Lackey: 3.2-10-9-2-3, 86. Seven of the 10 hits were for extra bases*: three doubles, two triples, and two home runs, including a grand slam from Adrian Beltre. The Chin got two outs in the fourth, and then crumbled as the next seven Rangers reached base.

* Seven extra-base hits allowed was a new career-worst for Lackey. He also became the first Red Sox pitcher since Luis Tiant in 1974 to give up what Alex Speier called "a double cycle" (at least two singles, two doubles, two triples and two home runs) in the same game.

In his previous 266 career starts, only once had Lackey allowed more runs than he did tonight: September 26, 2008, when Texas pummeled him for 12 hits and 10 runs in only 2.2 innings. (Lackey also allowed nine runs to the Red Sox on August 5, 2003. He allowed seven runs in the third inning that night, yet was not yanked until he allowed the first three guys in the fifth to reach base!)

David Ortiz's two-run homer in the second and RBI grounder in the fourth gives him 1,004 career RBI as a DH, passing Edgar Martinez and taking his place as #1 on the all-time list. (Another one of Martinez's record fell in Seattle, as Ichiro Suzuki became the Mariners' new leader in career hits with #2,248.)

Adrian Gonzalez had two singles and a double and Jacoby Ellsbury hit a two-run homer in the seventh.

It is being reported that Ian Kinsler became the first player in major league history to hit leadoff home runs in the first two games of the season. He did lead off the first inning in both games, but shouldn't that phrase apply only to the actual leadoff batter of the game -- in the top of the first?

The last time Boston started a season 0-2 was 2005. Those Red Sox won their next two games.

John Lackey / Colby Lewis

Worst/Best Opening Day Performances

Albert Pujols grounded into three double plays yesterday and the folks at Baseball Reference and The Hardball Times were wondering if it was the worst Opening Day performance of all time.

Greg Simons, THT:

The details are even more gruesome. Pujols popped up in the first following Colby Rasmus' one-out triple ... grounded into his first double play with two on and no out in the third, and another twin killing ... finished the fifth.

With the score tied 2-2 in the eighth, Pujols merely flew out to center. ... Pujols got another undesired two-for-one with a 6-4-3 DP in the 10th, shortly before San Diego won the game with two runs in the 11th.

The first comment mentions Carlos Zambrano. His OD start last year (1.1-6-8-2-1) had a Win Probability Added of -.625, compared to Pujols's -.430. (I'm not sure if the word "Added" really works in that sentence!)

Looking at the box score in which the guy with the worst OD WPA appears (not Pujols), I saw another score from that day: Mariners 8, Angels 4 (10). I clicked the box and saw what stands a good chance of being the greatest Opening Day of all-time (non-Bob Feller Division). Seattle's Jim Presley hit a two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game, then won the game with a grand slam with two outs in the bottom of the tenth.

Presley's WPA of .907 is great, but just two days ago, Cincinnati's Ramon Hernandez had a higher WPA (.929), going 4-for-5, with a three-run, game-winning dong with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. Before his at-bat, the Reds trailed 6-4 and had a 9% win expectancy.

Hernandez's WPA ranks 157th among all players in all games since 1919. The worst WPAs in that time period are here (84 players at -.600 and worse).

Lou Gorman (1929-2011)

Lou Gorman, who grew up as a Red Sox fan in Rhode Island and was the team's general manager from 1984-1993, died yesterday at the age of 82. From the Globe's obit:

In a baseball career that spanned more than four decades, beginning with the Orioles, then with the Royals, Mariners (as their first general manager), and Mets, Mr. Gorman help build World Series winners. He oversaw player development for Baltimore when it won the title in 1966, and worked as the player personnel director with the Mets from 1980 to 1983, helping to build the team that would take down his own Sox in that 1986 World Series.

Back in 1987, an angry Roger Clemens (who was in a contract dispute) walked out of spring training camp. Gorman was asked for his opinion. "The sun will rise, the sun will set, and I'll have lunch."

Adrian Gonzalez stole the second base of his career yesterday, not even drawing a throw from Texas catcher Yorvit Torrealba. His first theft -- which occurred on April 28, 2009 -- was also against Torrealba -- and Torrealba did not make a throw that time, either. In his next at-bat, leading off the sixth, Gonzalez had this conversation with Torrealba:

"Do you realize my only two career stolen bases are against you?"

"Dang."

"That's why I like you so much."

Jon Lester, on giving up a home run to Ian Kinsler, the first batter he faced this season:

Second pitch of the game, I'm going to throw a fastball. I'm not going to screw around. I'd rather give up a solo home run than a walk.

If Lester had wasted a pitch, the count would have been 2-0; a walk is not guaranteed. In 2010, Lester had a 2-0 count on 118 batters, and he ended up walking 37 of them (31.3%). Lester has had 522 2-0 counts in his career, with 160 eventual walks (30.6%).

And I would think you would ALWAYS rather put someone on first base -- even the leadoff hitter of the inning -- than allow a run. From 1952-2009, a leadoff walk scored 38% of the time, while a leadoff home run scored 100% of the time.

Yesterday's losing pitcher, John Lackey Daniel Bard:

Take out the walk and I think I threw the ball well. I know it's a cliché, but I'm happy with the pitches I made. They're a really tough offense. They put together some good at-bats. I'm not overly upset with how I threw the ball.

After the walk, the next five batters went: single, double, K, double, double.

I just saw the cover of the Daily News Baseball Preview:

On Opening Day in the Bronx, Yankee fans enjoyed a tasty lunch: Pasta Diving Jeter.

G1: Rangers 9, Red Sox 5

Red Sox - 202 000 010 - 5  7  1
Rangers - 110 300 04x - 9 10  1

Adrian Gonzalez drove in three of Boston's first four runs (and stole the second base of his eight-year career!), Jacoby Ellsbury reached base four times and scored twice, and David Ortiz tied the game with an opposite-field home run off Darren Oliver in the eighth.

But Daniel Bard (0.2-4-4-1-1, 32) allowed four runs in the home half of the eighth. After a fly out, he walked Mike Napoli, and gave up a single to Yorbit Torrealba and a two-run double to pinch-hitter David Murphy. After a strikeout -- the game's only K among Boston's six pitchers -- back-to-back doubles from Elvis Andrus and Josh Hamilton pushed the score to 9-5. The Red Sox went in order in the ninth against Neftali Feliz.

Ellsbury doubled, singled, walked, and stole a base; he began the game (and the season) by reaching second when his routine fly ball was dropped for a two-base error. He scored on Kevin Youkilis's double. ... The bottom third of the lineup went 0-for-11, with a walk.

Lester (5.1-6-5-1-0, 88) allowed three home runs in a game for the first time in his career. (He has allowed two dongs 16 times, including five times each in 2009 and 2010.)

Jon Lester / C.J. Wilson

Opening Day!

Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
Dustin Pedroia, 2B
Carl Crawford, LF
Kevin Youkilis, 3B
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
David Ortiz, DH
Mike Cameron, RF
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
Marco Scutaro, SS

There was some fuss in the past week about Terry Francona balancing the honour of starting on Opening Day with sitting some of his left-handed hitters against a tough lefty like Wilson. Lefties batted .144 with a .400 OPS against Wilson in 2010. Drew is 1-for-6 and Ortiz is 1-for-10.

Those samples seem quite small. And Boston's right-handed hitters haven't exactly feasted on Wilson either: Scutaro is 2-for-16, Crawford is 2-for-15, Youkilis is 2-for-7 (with two walks). Cameron, starting in place of Drew, is 0-for-3. The current Boston roster is a combined 11-for-73 against Wilson (.151/.244/.219/.463).

Baseball Reference says there have been only two complete games pitched on Opening Day in the last seven years (2004-10). The last Red Sox OD CG was pitched in NYC by the TCM, on April 7, 1992: 8-8-4-1-5, 100 - Yankees 4, Red Sox 3.

More than one pundit has said the the Red Sox could win 100 games this year. No Boston team has reached that milestone since 1946. Theo Epstein sets an annual goal of at least 95 wins -- which will usually result in a playoff spot. It's easier said than done, though. In the 110-year history of the Red Sox, only nine teams have ended the regular season with more than 95 victories:

Year   GP    W   L   T  Finish
1912  154   105  47  2  1st in AL, Won World Series
1946  156   104  50  2  1st in AL, Lost World Series
1915  155   101  50  4  1st in AL, Won World Series
1978  163    99  64     2nd in ALE
2004  162    98  64     2nd in ALE, Won World Series
1977  161    97  64     2nd in ALE
2007  162    96  66     1st in ALE, Won World Series
1949  155    96  58  1  2nd in AL
1948  155    96  59     2nd in AL

In the Red Sox's other three championship seasons, their win totals were: 91 (1903), 91 (1916), and 75 (1918; shortened-season).

Terry Francona:

We talk all the time about trying to keep the line moving and not having easy innings. I think we have a group of guys that should make pitchers work. We have some speed, we have some power, we have some switch hitters. ... [But] If you don't pitch, it's really tough to be a good team. ...

I don't ever base my optimism on the pundits. I like our team. I like the way we worked in spring training. I like our talent. It's 162 games -- it's a long year. A lot of things happen, but we're excited. Now we have to go show it.

Entries For 2011 W-L Contest

UPDATED WITH CHARTS!

Here are the entries in the 2011 W-L Contest.

Many of the entries are very similar. In two separate cases, they are identical. ... If you don't see your entry, reply to my "thanks!" email and I'll correct my mistake. ... The prize is a copy of Marty Dobrow's "Knocking on Heaven's Door". Good luck!

                               Ellsbury +
                W-L    AG OPS  Crawford SB
Gregory L     117-45    1.042      142

Allan W       102-60                        allan
Mike B        102-60    1.062       87
Jere S        102-60     .975      102
Justin M      102-60     .965      123
Joseph G      102-60     .947       66      joegrav
Laura K       102-60     .930      110      laura k

Stephen S     101-61    1.001      101
Kristen       101-61    1.001      101      redsoxdiehard
Tim L         101-61     .943      127      tim
John Q        101-61     .940       80

James C       100-62    1.001       73
Rick          100-62    1.000      100      fka westcoastsox
Sean O        100-62     .989      112
Rob F         100-62     .911       89

Jake M         99-63    1.004      120
Steve S        99-63    1.002      144
Ofer C         99-63     .983       98      ofer
Jim G          99-63     .980      110      woti 
Jeff F         99-63     .952       76      JFett
Mike B         99-63     .951      113
Jacob L        99-63     .922       99      Jake of All Trades
Edward N       99-63     .899      129
Charlie P      99-63     .833       95      pioli12
 
Matthew B      98-64    1.043      115
Mike Z         98-64     .980       98
Jeffrey D      98-64     .980       75
Patrick K      98-64     .969       89
Jeff M         98-64     .948      110      FenFan
Dan C          98-64     .934      113
Conor D        98-64     .931       92

Philip H       97-65    1.027      127      aka/fka vrictare
Jeff L         97-65    1.015       83      Zenslinger
Kathryn L      97-65     .999       94      Mrs.GotRibe
Franco B       97-65     .970       97
Alan C         97-65     .969       88
Andrew B       97-65     .949       96      seawolvesfan

Ruben L        96-68     .988       68
Rich G         96-66     .986      111
Jonathan I     96-66     .970      129
Matt K         96-66     .968       82      mattymatty2000
Billy          96-66     .960       82      redsauce
Jeff A         96-66     .925      100      Dr. Jeff
Drew B         96-66     .925      100      Pokerwolf

Jonathan M     95-67     .927       76  
Lewis S        95-67     .924       74

Matt M         94-68     .938       79
Nick R         94-68     .927      122      nick
Peter L        94-68     .881       90      Lord Lynch
"truth"        94-68     .880      112

Danie          93-69     .895      119

Bryan E        90-72     .881       87

We also have some cool charts of the data created by Dr. Jeff.

The average entry was: 98-64, .959, 100.