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February 18, 2004

Thirty Seasons. In a Sox Therapy thread about the possibility of getting Soriano to play 2B in Boston, "SG" writes: "I've been running some Diamond Mind sims with Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections disk, and here are the results after 15 seasons":
                 Yankees     Red Sox

Avg Wins: 99.6 98.5
Avg Losses: 62.4 63.5
Actual Win%: .615 .608
Pythag Win%: .619 .614
High Wins: 113 111
High Losses: 71 81
Avg Runs Scored: 906.5 882.1
Avg Runs Allowed: 710.7 [blank?]
High Runs Scored: 988 939
Low Runs Scored: 822 823
High Runs Allowed: 776 798
Low Runs Allowed: 670 629
Division Titles: 8 7
Wild Cards: 6 5
Missed Playoffs: 1 3
SG's comments: "Obviously, these don't mean much, but it's kind of interesting to look at. It looks like the Yankees are projected to be a little better on offense, and a little worse on defense (pitching + fielding). About one game separates these teams, even after getting Rodriguez. As Joe C. said, the Yankees may have the higher ceiling, but the risk of implosion is also greater. ... Incidentally, Rodriguez averaged .291/.380/.550 [and] 41.7 HR, with a low of 32 and a high of 51. Best Avg. was .348, worst was .254 (think Steinbrenner would like that?). ... OK, I ran another 15 simulations, putting the total at 30 seasons. Here's the AL East data" [he includes all 5 teams in the thread]:
                  Yankees    Red Sox

Avg Wins: 99.9 99.2
Avg Losses: 62.1 62.8
Actual Win%: .617 .612
Pythag Win%: .620 .617
High Wins: 113 111
High Losses: 76 81
Avg Runs Scored: 905.4 884.1
Avg Runs Allowed: 708.7 696.2
High Runs Scored: 1022 939
Low Runs Scored: 800 823
High Runs Allowed: 780 798
Low Runs Allowed: 654 629
Division Titles: 16 14
Wild Cards: 11 13
Missed Playoffs: 3 3
99.9 to 99.2?!? That is close. ... Also, I have to read up on Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system [I didn't pay that much attention to it last season], because it sure loves the Red Sox pitching staff.

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