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April 5, 2004

Predictions, Part 7.

Diamond Mind. Projected standings, based on the average of 100 simulated seasons run on March 17 (so Nomar, Kim and Nixon were presumably included). I've posted only the AL East (RF & RA: avg. runs for and against; #DIV & #WC: number of division titles and wild cards won (fractions given for ties)):
AL East         W   L   Pct  GB   RF   RA  #DIV   #WC

Boston 102 60 .630 - 890 680 54.5 42.0
New York 101 61 .623 1 899 703 45.5 46.5
Toronto 79 83 .488 23 819 845 1.0
Baltimore 75 87 .463 27 829 872
Tampa Bay 64 98 .395 38 706 874
Tom Tippett reports that both the Red Sox and Yankees "reached the postseason in over 90% of our simulated seasons ... Even so, because the other two division races are much closer, only three AL teams were completely shut out of the postseason in our 100 simulations. ... In our simulations, almost 40% of the races were decided by two games or less, with seven ties for first place. ... For the second year in a row, 13 of 16 National League teams qualified for postseason play at least once."

I'd like to see the best and worst seasons for each team. Which reminds me of a story in one Bill James's early Abstracts, in which he ran simulations of 1,000 seasons for Joe DiMaggio and Willie Mays and (as I recall) found that DiMaggio hit anywhere between .240 and .360, based purely on random chance. I'll have to dig that article out.

Sports Illustrated. Boston is ranked 3rd in MLB behind the Cubs and Yankees.
ALE    ALC    ALW    NLE    NLC    NLW

MFY Min Oak Phi Cub Arz
Bos CWS Ana Fla Hou SFG
Tor KCR Sea Atl StL SDP
Bal Cle Tex Mtl Cin LAD
TBD Det NYM Mil Col
Pit

ALDS: Red Sox over Oakland, Yankees over Twins
NLDS: Cubs over Arizona, Astros over Phillies
ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox
NLCS: Cubs over Astros
World Series: Cubs over Yankees
The Hardball Times. Predictions from 10 writers, including divisional standings, major awards and what happens in October.
AL East          1st   2nd   3rd   4th   5th

Alex Belth BOS NYY TOR TAM BAL
Craig Burley BOS NYY TOR BAL TAM
Joe Dimino NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM
Robert Dudek NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM
Aaron Gleeman NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM
Ben Jacobs BOS NYY TOR BAL TAM
Vinay Kumar NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM
Matthew Namee NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM
Studes NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM
Steve Treder NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM

Consensus NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM

October AL Champs NL Champs WS Champs
Alex Belth Yankees Giants Yankees
Craig Burley Red Sox Astros Astros
Joe Dimino Yankees Astros Astros
Robert Dudek A's Cubs A's
Aaron Gleeman Red Sox Cubs Red Sox
Ben Jacobs Red Sox Astros Red Sox
Vinay Kumar Red Sox Astros Red Sox
Matthew Namee Red Sox Dodgers Red Sox
Studes Red Sox Cubs Cubs
Steve Treder Yankees Cubs Yankees

Consensus Red Sox Astros/Cubs Red Sox
The Baseball Crank. Yankees win the East; Red Sox take the wild card. Schilling wins the Cy Young. Boston loses to the A's in the ALDS. World Series: Yankees over Cubs.

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