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May 17, 2004

Waiting and Pedro. Michael Silverman offers some anonymous quotes about waiting until the end of the season to decide whether to resign Martinez:

NL scout: "I wouldn't sign him until the season is almost over. Make him earn every cent. ... I think he's hurt and I have concerns about him. I'd look at that other crop of free agents and see who I could bring in."

AL scout: "He's not going to blow you away anymore and his secondary stuff is not as sharp anymore. He used to be the guy you'd build a club around -- he's not that guy anymore."

MLB executive not employed by the Red Sox: "I have real doubts about his arm but I have no doubts about the quality of his pitches. He still may be the best pitcher in baseball, it's just determining how much he's worth. ... [L]et's say it's $35, $40 or $45 million for three years and you get only 350 or 400 innings in that time -- you have to win the World Series with him to justify that. ... I've got no sense of the market with him. Everyone is assuming that the Yankees will be in on him because Steinbrenner is supposedly getting loopier than ever and if the Yankees don't win it this year, he wants one more championship before he dies and you know he likes signing ex-Red Sox."

The Boston media has been talking about Pedro being string in his last 3 starts (21 IP, 7 ER) so I looked at his game log:
Date Opp Score Dec  IP   H  R ER HR BB  K   W  L  IP    ERA  BAA

0404 BAL L 2-7 L 6.0 7 3 2 1 1 5 0 1 6.0 3.00 .269
0410 TOR W 4-1 W 7.2 4 1 1 1 2 7 1 1 13.2 1.98 .204
0415 BAL L 7-12 - 5.0 8 7 7 2 4 3 1 1 18.2 4.82 .250
0420 TOR W 4-2 W 7.0 5 2 1 0 2 6 2 1 25.2 3.86 .233
0425 NYY W 2-0 W 7.0 4 0 0 0 1 7 3 1 32.2 3.03 .219
0501 TEX L 5-8 L 4.0 9 6 6 1 1 3 3 2 36.2 4.17 .250
0506 CLE W 5-2 W 7.0 4 2 2 1 3 8 4 2 43.2 3.92 .238
0511 CLE W 5-3 - 7.0 5 2 2 0 2 11 4 2 50.2 3.73 .232
0516 TOR L 1-3 L 7.0 6 3 3 1 1 6 4 3 57.2 3.75 .231
Total 57.2 52 26 24 7 17 56
Martinez has had only two truly bad outings: April 15 and May 1. In every other start -- 7 out of 9 -- Pedro allowed 3 or fewer runs -- which should be good enough to give the Red Sox a shot at victory. However, run support for Pedro has been puny -- less than 4 runs per 9 innings. Martinez and the Red Sox have had the misfortune of going up against a very solid pitcher nearly every time out. In 8 of Martinez's 9 starts, Boston's batted against Halladay 3 times, Ponson and Sabathia twice, and Vazquez once.

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