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December 8, 2006

More Lineup Fun

David Pinto at Baseball Musings has a very cool toy called "Lineup Analysis". You plug in the OBP and SLG for nine players and generate the 30 best and worst run-scoring lineups.

I put in the nine starters for the 2006 Red Sox.
Best (5.728 R/G)   Worst (5.289 R/G)
Youkilis Gonzalez
Ramirez Crisp
Varitek Nixon
Ortiz Varitek
Lowell Loretta
Crisp Ramirez
Nixon Lowell
Gonzalez Youkilis
Loretta Ortiz
In 25 of the 30 best lineups, Manny was batting #2; Ortiz was #2 in the other 5. Youkilis or Nixon was the leadoff guy in all 30 best lineups. ... In every one of the 30 worst lineups, Gonzo was #1 and Ortiz was #9.

I input the 2006 numbers for the probable 2007 lineup:
Probable    Best        Worst
5.674 R/G 5.856 R/G 5.210 R/G

Lugo Youkilis Pedroia
Youkilis Ramirez Crisp
Ortiz Lugo Lowell
Ramirez Ortiz Lugo
Drew Drew Varitek
Lowell Lowell Youkilis
Varitek Varitek Drew
Crisp Pedroia Ramirez
Pedroia Crisp Ortiz
I have to admit I'm pretty amazed that Tito's probable lineup is so similar to the most productive lineup (based on the players' 2006 performance).

Once again, Manny is at #2 in 25 of the best 30 lineups. In the other 5, he's leading off. (There are obvious many flaws in this exercise -- no accounting for speed or a player's comfort level or jeering from the media -- but it's fun.)

My campaign to get Manny into the 2-hole begins now!

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