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October 31, 2019

Looking Back At 2019's Predictions ... Or, Why Baseball Is Smarter (And More Clever) Than Everyone

On October 3, "Postseason Predictions Are (It Is Agreed) A Fool's Errand" collected the opinions of a lot of "experts" as to who would win the World Series.

All of them were wrong, except for one unnamed person at ESPN (numbers are total picks for that team):

ESPN:
NLDS: Dodgers 26, Nationals 4
NLCS: Dodgers 23, Atlanta 3, Nationals 3, Cardinals 1
World Series: Astros 19, Dodgers 6, Twins 1, Nationals 1 [Not named], Cardinals 1, Atlanta 1, Yankees 1
USA Today:
Astros: over Dodgers in 4 ... over Dodgers in 6 ... over Nationals in 5 ... over Atlanta in 6 ... over Atlanta in 6.
CBS Sports:
NLWC: Nationals 4, Brewers 1
NLDS: Dodgers 5
NLDS: Atlanta 5
NLCS: Dodgers 4, Atlanta 1
World Series: Astros 4, Yankees 1
NBC Sports:
NLWC: Nationals 2, Brewers 1
NLDS: Dodgers 3
NLDS: Atlanta 3
NLCS: Atlanta 2, Dodgers 1
World Series: Astros 2, Atlanta 1
Yahoo Sports:
NLDS: Dodgers 5, Nationals 1
NLCS: Dodgers 4, Nationals 1, Atlanta 1
World Series: Astros 5, Dodgers 1
The Sporting News:
NLCS: Atlanta 4, Dodgers 3, Cardinals 1, Nationals 1
World Series: Astros 8, Dodgers 1
Only 1 out of 58 people picked the Nationals (1.7%) to win the World Series. And 43 picked the Astros (74.1%).


But what were people saying way back in the spring?

They weren't saying "Nationals", I'll tell you that. .... Except for:
Alex Speier at the Boston Globe
Bob Nightengale and Gabe Lacques at USA Today
Tom Gatto and Jordan Shusterman at The Sporting News
3 people at ESPN
1 person at NBC
Street & Smith's 2019 Baseball Preview
ALDS: Red Sox over Cleveland; Astros over Yankees
NLDS: Atlanta over Nationals; Cardinals over Dodgers
ALCS: Astros over Red Sox
NLCS: Atlanta over Cardinals
World Series: Astros over Atlanta
Athlon Sports 2019 Baseball Preview
ALCS: Astros over Red Sox
NLCS: Dodgers over Cardinals
World Series: Dodgers over Astros
Lindy's Sports 2019 Baseball Annual
AL Division Winners: Yankees, Cleveland, Astros
NL Division Winners: Nationals, Cardinals, Dodgers
AL Pennant: Astros
NL Pennant: Cardinals
[No World Series pick]
Boston Globe:
ALCS: Red Sox 2, Astros 2, Cleveland 2
NLCS: Cubs 3, Dodgers 2, Nationals 1
World Series: Red Sox 2, Dodgers, 1, Cleveland 1, Astros 1, Nationals 1 [Alex Speier]
Sean McAdam, Boston Sports Journal:
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees
NLCS: Cubs over Dodgers
World Series: Cubs over Red Sox
AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
NL MVP: Anthony Rendon
Jim Bowden, The Athletic:
AL East: Boston Red Sox
MVP: Aaron Judge
Manager of the Year: A.J. Hinch, Astros
Comeback Player of the Year: Gary Sanchez, Yankees
New York Post:
ALCS: Astros 4, Yankees 3
NLCS: Dodgers 3, Nationals 1, Brewers 1, Cardinals 1, Padres 1
World Series: Yankees 2, Astros 1, Brewers 1, Cardinals 1, Padres 1, Dodgers 1
AL MVP: Judge 3, Betts 1, Trout 1, Bregman 1, Stanton 1
MLB.com:
ALCS: Astros 27, Yankees 20, Red Sox 5
NLCS: Dodgers 14, Nationals 12 (26 votes missing)
World Series: Astros 28, Yankees 15 (9 votes missing)
MLB Network Radio:
ALCS: Yankees 11, Astros 7
NLCS: Nationals 6, Cubs 5, Rockies 3, Phillies 2, Dodgers 1, Cardinals 1
World Series: Yankees 10, Astros 6, Rockies 1, Phillies 1
ESPN:
ALCS: Astros 15, Yankees 7, Red Sox 5, A's 3, Cleveland 1
NLCS: Dodgers 10, Nationals 6, Cardinals 4, Phillies 3, Brewers 3, Cubs 2, Atlanta 2, Rockies 1
World Series: Astros 14, Dodgers 4, Yankees 4, Red Sox 3, Nationals 3 [Not listed], A's 2, Cardinals 1
Sports Illustrated:
ALCS: Astros 5, Yankees 2, Red Sox 1, Cleveland 1
NLCS: Nationals 4, Dodgers 2, Brewers 1, Phillies 1, Cubs 1
World Series: Astros 4, Yankees 2, Dodgers 2, Phillies 1
USA Today:
ALCS: Yankees 3, Astros 2, Red Sox 1, Cleveland 1
NLCS: Nationals 3, Dodgers 2, Phillies 1, Cardinals 1
World Series: Nationals 2 [Bob Nightengale, Gabe Lacques], Dodgers 1, Astros 1, Cleveland 1, Cardinals 1, Yankees 1
NBC Sports:
ALCS: Astros 4, Yankees 3
NLCS: Nationals 4, Dodgers 1, Rockies 1, Cardinals 1
World Series: Astros 3, Yankees 2, Dodgers 1, Nationals 1 [Not listed]
Todd Dybas: "The Yankees [have] multiple guys who could hit 40 homers." [No MFY hit more than 38 dongs.]
Tony Andracki: "There's no way the Red Sox will miss the playoffs ..." [Uh-huh.]
CBS Sports:
ALCS: Astros 3, Yankees 2
NLCS: Nationals 3, Cubs 1, Dopdgers 1
World Series: Astros 3, Yankees 2
The Sporting News:
ALCS: Yankees 6, Astros 4, Red Sox 2, Cleveland 1
NLCS: Nationals 4, Cardinals 3, Cubs 2, Brewers 2, Phillies 1, Dodgers 1
World Series: Yankees 4, Astros 2, Nationals 2 [Tom Gatto, Jordan Shusterman], Red Sox 1, Phillies 1, Brewers 1, Dodgers 1
Baseball America
World Series: Dodgers 3, Astros 2, Yankees 2, Red Sox 1 [One pick for Nationals in WS, losing to MFY]

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