October 11, 2007

ALCS/NLCS Predictions

Update: NLCS 1 Game Thread here (8:30)!

NL begins tonight in Arizona. Joe Sheehan, BP:
The Rockies and Diamondbacks are evenly matched teams with comparable strengths and weaknesses, and each has a number of young stars or stars-in-waiting well worth watching. Both swept more experienced opponents in the first round, striking a blow against the notion that experience is a determinant of postseason fate. This is simply a terrific series ahead of us, one that despite the locations —- both teams' home parks are among the better hitters' parks in the game -- could feature more low-scoring games than its AL counterpart. ... Diamondbacks in seven.
Rockies in 7.
Red Sox in 6.

And I'm sticking with my months-long assertion that Slügö will be the ALCS MVP.

51 comments:

nixon33 said...

why lugo, though? just curious

redsock said...

ESPN's simulations have Coloradio winning the pennant 693 times out of 1,000. When the Rockies won Game 1, their chnaces improved to 84.6%. When they lost Game 1, they still won the pennant 55% of the time.

s1c said...

Rockies in 5!!

tim said...

I also had Sox in 6 (as I voted in the poll) - I was in the minority that voted for a sweep in the DS :-D

But I'm thinking Rockies in 6 as well, they'll split the first two, rockies will take the next two then lose before heading back to AZ to capture the pennant. That's my guess. They might not even lose that much with the way they've been playing recently.

ish said...

So... Anybody up for an NLCS game thread tonight?

Zenslinger said...

Slugo for MVP is a very clever ploy by RS. If he's right, he's a genius. If not, just a quirky prediction.

It may be a variation on my feeling / hope that some of our pooped-upon guys will step up. I felt a little vindicated when Drew drew first blood in the ALDS with that 2-RBI single.

redsock said...

Anybody up for an NLCS game thread tonight?

We're watching the game (except from 10:30 to 11:00 for a new Sarah Silverman show).

L said she will mod. I'm scoring, but not typing.

So thread away!

Soxy Lady said...

I'm for the Sox in 6 too. Especially since I have tickets to that game!

redsock said...

Slugo for MVP is a very clever ploy by RS. If he's right, he's a genius. If not, just a quirky prediction.

It was something I was saying back in June/July. He sucks now, but he'll be the ALCS MVP. More of a have-faith-dammit statement, but I can't back down now!

ish said...

4,000 seats available for tonight's game in Phoenix as of Midnight last night. Can you believe that?! They might not sell out Game 1. 2,800 seats available for Game 2.

Even if I was not a fan of the Red Sox... if I was a fan of the MARLINS, I'd still be surprised they're not selling out for the NLCS.

What was the attendance like in Miami in 2003?

tim said...

I felt a little vindicated when Drew drew first blood in the ALDS with that 2-RBI single.

train whistleDREEEWWWW! DREEEWWWW!chugg-a-chugg-a-chugg-a
chugg-a, chugg-a-chugg-a-chugg-a-chugg-a, DREEEWWWW! DREEEWWWW!

/idiocy

this is what im doing instead of studying!

Zenslinger said...

SI.com's Jacob Luft says Cleveland in 6...wha-ho!

Jere said...

"SI.com's Jacob Luft says Cleveland in 6."

Fenway McGee goes with the Sox in 5.

chief said...

Since this is serving as the game thread for tonight, we can post and discuss random things right?

Good:

THE "BLOG" OF "UNNECESSARY" QUOTATION MARKS

Go "Rockies." Or "DiamondBacks."

ish said...

FINALLY!!!!!

After three LONG, EXCRUCIATING days, we have LIVE baseball!

ish said...

"It is NOT a sellout here tonight. There are 3 to 4 thousand empty seats here tonight."

-ESPN Radio

ish said...

and Guess Who is the home plate umpire. Tim McClelland.

ish said...

Not much of a game thread tonight, it seems. Ah well. Wait 'til tomorrow night, I guess.

SoSock said...

It IS a little slow tonight, isnt it?

Wondering how in the HELL you can have a playoff game that doesn't sell out!

Damn non-baseball loving, non-appreciative Southwesterners ;)

redsock said...

L is off to bed, so I am modding. Anyone still out there?

ish said...

L is off to bed, so I am modding. Anyone still out there?

I check in between commericals.

redsock said...

I do not have much of a stake in this series, but I do know that if Arizona ended up playing the Sox in the WS, we'd see a lot of anti-Dback venom from L (becuz of 2001). That would be fun.

redsock said...

Jeff Francis -- Canadian.

redsock said...

is posada catching for arizona?

ish said...

The Red Sox played both of these teams in Interleague this season, if you remember.

Sox took 2 out of 3 against Arizona... Josh Beckett beating Doug Davis 10-3 in game 1, game 2 was won in the 8th inning by the Red Sox, 4-3. Tavarez vs. Owings.

Game 3 the Sox lost that one, Randy Johnson beating Daisuke.

redsock said...

All I remember from that series is that it was on the weekend and I did not have NESN for any of the games. Some Dbacks TV crap. Think I got to watch most of them though.

ish said...

Then you look at Colorado, and it gets dicier.

Remember they played each other at Fenway this year, and Colorado took 2 out of 3.

Tim Wakefield beat Aaron Cook (who is on the NLCS roster) 2-1, so the Sox didn't give Wakefield many runs, but they gave him enough.

Things went downhill from there. Josh Fogg beat Schilling in game 2 by a score of 12-2. Schilling gave up 5 earned runs in that game. That's why Fogg is called the Dragon Slayer. He tends to beat the good pitchers, strangely enough.

Game 3 was Beckett's first loss of the season, allowing 6 runs on 10 hits in 5 innings. Francis wasn't much better from a hits and innings standpoint, but he kept the Sox from scoring. 5 IP, 7 H. The bullpen took it from there, giving up 1 run in 4 innings.

But it's been a long time since they've seen each other, though. Who would have the edge now? I think the Red Sox would. Maybe we'll see. Maybe not. Long ways to go.

Jere said...

They're booing this much and throwing crap on the field after a totally correct call? Terrible job.

redsock said...

hurdle has got those gerbil cheeks going, doesn't he?

ish said...

Well, this is what happens when a team is in the playoffs that doesn't usually draw a lot of fans. The bandwagoning fans go to the game and they don't KNOW the game so they think they're correct in their booing.

And their throwing crap on the field. Oh yeah, that's fine, too.

Good job by Clint Hurdle to pull his team off the field, though. That really not only protects the players, but sends a message that he will not play in this nonsense.

Jere said...

They should be booing their own guy. Had he not made the attempt to break it up, the guy would've been safe at first because they wouldn't have even thrown to first.

redsock said...

upton was quite pissed about being hit -- like it was intentional????

probably led him to go into kaz extra hard.

ish said...

So this will be a 9.5 inning game.

ish said...

Yeah, he threw his arm out and clearly interfered. You can go in with your legs to take out the fielder as long as you touch the base, but you can't use your arms.

redsock said...

"must be a bunch of red sox fans at this game"

(/national media circa 1999 alcs)

ish said...

RIGHT THERE. That's the best play you can do. Jeff Cirillo not only bunted to get himself on, but now the crowd isn't booing anymore! Positivity!

And then they boo again.

Classy.

Jere said...

Yeah, imagine what these fans would do if the umps made some '99 ALCS type calls.

ish said...

They should be booing their own guy. Had he not made the attempt to break it up, the guy would've been safe at first because they wouldn't have even thrown to first.

I just wonder how many of them know the game well enough to distinguish that fact. Probably not many. When you're not selling out a game in the playoffs, the fans you do get are not going to be very knowledgeable ones, I don't think.

redsock said...

When you're not selling out a game in the playoffs, the fans you do get are not going to be very knowledgeable ones, I don't think.

Wouldn't it be the opposite? No extra psuedo fans hogging the tix.

Any diehard who wants to go can get a seat.

redsock said...

young with the millar "home run"

redsock said...

pitching change to face On Fire, The Younger.

redsock said...

On Buffyvision, Gregg Zaun says Upton play was a case of the ump overreacting. Good clean slide, he says.

ish said...

Any diehard who wants to go can get a seat.

I don't think so. First of all, the Diamondbacks are not going to have a lot of diehards. The problem with Phoenix is that people move to Phoenix from other places around the country and already are fans of other teams. Look at the Red Sox fans who turned out from around the area when the Sox played in Phoenix.

It just looks like to me that they'd need to do some serious advertising to get the people in the ballpark for this game. I don't know how exactly they do it, but the fans in Arizona are clearly displaying their baseball knowledge.

Certainly gives people a pretty good reason to root for Colorado, I guess.

ish said...

On Buffyvision, Gregg Zaun says Upton play was a case of the ump overreacting. Good clean slide, he says.

Are they analyzing from the studio? Or did they send a crew down to Phoenix?

redsock said...

OFTY pops to RF on the first pitch. Snakes leave 3.

redsock said...

studio. not on site. periodic blabs during breaks.

ish said...

9th inning. Good thing because I want to go to bed soon.

redsock said...

7-8-9 for the Snakes in the 9th

redsock said...

montero doubles with 2 outs and boneheadedly overslides second and is easily tagged out to end the game.

ish said...

Yep, one of the more interesting ways to end the game. See ya tomorrow.

tim said...

All I remember from that series is that it was on the weekend and I did not have NESN for any of the games. Some Dbacks TV crap.

Hey! I was gonna say, thats about all I remember from that series too, bitching about their shitty announcers on Joy. Ohhh how I bitch.

What a brutal way to end the game. Meh.