G35: Blue Jays 3, Red Sox 2

Blue Jays - 000 010 200 - 3  6  0
Red Sox   - 000 000 002 - 2  6  0

See that red square on the left? That was the pitch that home plate umpire Dale Scott called David Ortiz out on in the bottom of the ninth inning. It should have been Ball 4.

Here is Gameday (pitch 7):
The blown call changed the dynamics of the inning tremendously. With one out and the Red Sox down by three runs, facing Kevin Gregg, Kevin Youkilis singled and J.D. Drew doubled Yook in to make it 3-1. Ortiz was the potential tying run, but instead of having men at first and second and one out, Boston had the one runner at second and two outs.

[Also, a called Strike 2 to Drew on the pitch before his double was almost as bad. That also should have been Ball 4. As SoSHer radsoxfan put it, "This ump is approaching NBA level referee incompetence out there." (Read)

It makes you wonder, especially when you can see how much Scott favoured the Toronto pitchers all afternoon, on both sides of the plate, in this graphic. Jays pitchers got 18 calls on pitches outside the strike zone to Boston's 2. Is Scott BFF with Joe West?]

How much did the obviously wrong call hurt? In nearly 30 years of data found here, home teams down by 2 in the bottom of the 9th, with 1st/2nd and 1 out -- the situation Boston should have had if Scott had made the right call -- came back and won 17.1% of the games (101 of 509). In the situation the Red Sox were put in -- down by 2, man on 2nd, 2 outs -- only 4.2% of teams rallied to win (34 of 810).

Over at FanGraphs, Drew's double increased Boston's chances of winning from 5.5% to 13.7%. The strikeout of Ortiz dropped the odds back down to 5.5%.

Adrian Beltre followed Flo to the plate and checked his swing on a 1-1 pitch. Scott said Beltre swung and refused Beltre's request to check with the first base umpire. It seemed obvious to me that Scott was ignoring Beltre because of Ortiz's complaints about the farcical called strike 3. If so, Scott was punishing one team for being angry at his own mistake, which seriously hurt their chances in the game. He seemingly decided to put his own emotions ahead of doing his job.

Terry Francona, who had come out to guide Tiz back to the dugout, was out again -- the second time in four pitches -- and this time, after he was ejected, he gave Scott an earful. Beltre lined Gregg's next pitch into center for a single and Drew scored to make it 3-2. But Darnell McDonald popped up to the second baseman down the right field line to end the game.

Did Ortiz see a replay of the pitch/call?

I don't have to. Thank God I wasn't hitting righthanded because that would have hit me in the ribs.

Wakefield (7-5-3-1-5, 102) allowed a run in the fifth on doubles by Lyle Overbay and Travis Snider. Snider hit a two-run homer in the seventh.

Boston could do very little with Marcum (7-2-0-1-6, 103). The Sox had 1st/3rd with one out in the second, but Beltre and Jeremy Hermida could not deliver. That was their only scoring threat until the ninth.

Shaun Marcum / Tim Wakefield

Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Drew, RF
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
Hermida, LF
Van Every, CF

Wakefield makes his 5th start of the year and his first since April 25. He has made three recent relief appearances: 6 runs and 7 hits (including 3 HR) in 6.1 innings. He last pitched on Sunday night, throwing 10 pitches in an inning against the Yankees.

Other than an April 27 start against the Red Sox at Skydome, Marcum (7-4-1-3-5, 103) has not faced Boston since August 2008.

The Rays play the Angels at 7 PM and the Yankees have a day-night doubleheader (1 & 7 PM) in Detroit.