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March 8, 2011

Everybody Loves A Contest #8

It's time for the Red Sox W-L Contest!

Correctly guess the team's 2011 regular season record and win a copy of Marty Dobrow's "Knocking On Heaven's Door", which follows the minor league journeys of six players during the 2005 season, including Red Sox farmhands Brad Baker, Manny Delcarmen, and Charlie Zink. (I am reading the book now and will write more about it before the season starts.)

Entries must be emailed to me and include the following:

1. Predicted W/L record
2. Tiebreaker A: Adrian Gonzalez's OPS
3. Tiebreaker B: Total SBs by Ellsbury/Crawford

Tiebreakers will be the closest guess, either over or under. If there is a tie after (A), we'll go to (B). Deadline: Friday, April 1, 12:01 AM.

*And I'm repeating the grand [sic] prize! The winner is invited to watch a 2012 Red Sox game+ at Chez L-Sock. Game night will include -- free! -- dinner and drinks, copious canine attention, and overnight accommodations. Transportation to the general Toronto area is not included. [+: Monday-Thursday only]
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22 comments:

  1. Conor DuffyMarch 8, 2011 at 7:12 AM

    I say 98-64

    ReplyDelete
  2. laura kMarch 8, 2011 at 7:20 AM

    Conor, don't forget to read the post carefully.

    ReplyDelete
  3. JereMarch 8, 2011 at 8:13 AM

    I'm in that book! (Meaning some photos I took of Zink.)

    ReplyDelete
  4. ZenslingerMarch 8, 2011 at 10:05 AM

    I say 97 wins. You 100+ people are dreaming that we play in another division.

    Doesn't mean we're not going all the way, however.

    ReplyDelete
  5. PokerwolfMarch 8, 2011 at 10:11 AM

    Listening to the Cardinals/Sox game and they had Bob Gibson on the broadcast before the game. Ellsbury just stole a base! Woo!

    Go Sox!

    ReplyDelete
  6. allanMarch 8, 2011 at 10:24 AM

    Jere, I saw that! Zink's crazy debut!

    I said 102 in that Pepper Q&A, so I'm sticking with that. Why not!

    ReplyDelete
  7. allanMarch 8, 2011 at 10:27 AM

    I had considered asking everyone to list the order of finish of the AL East teams as if your life depended on it.

    I was hoping for an honest look at the division. ... Would everyone have Boston at #1?

    ReplyDelete
  8. PokerwolfMarch 8, 2011 at 10:50 AM

    I think a lot of people would have Boston #1 even if they weren't Sox fans, Allan. Looking at the division, here's what I see:

    MFYs - Tons of questions for pitching. Difficult to see how they'll play out. Their record will completely depend on their offense.

    TB - Just as many if not more questions than the MFYs for pitching because of the exodus of free agents. They'll be a tough team to beat, because they usually are, but they seem destined to live and die by 1 run games.

    TOR - A quality upgrade to the team this year. They have a decent chance of cracking the top 3 best teams in the division, but it'll take a lot to hurdle the MFYs.

    BAL - An improved team that played well at the end of last season. If they get over .500 this year, it'll be a great year.

    See what I mean? Boston is the only team, on paper anyway, that seems to be solid across the board in the division.

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  9. ZenslingerMarch 8, 2011 at 11:13 AM

    Pokerwolf, you list flaws in the AL East opponents. I see four teams that are *all* solid.

    Beckett v. Koby Clemens: two ABs require only two pitches for two outs.

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  10. ZenslingerMarch 8, 2011 at 11:14 AM

    There's one to deprive Allan of some sleep: has there ever been instances of a starting pitcher getting the same batter on one pitch per out throughout a game?

    ReplyDelete
  11. laura kMarch 8, 2011 at 1:24 PM

    I'm going 100+ too. WTH. I can't win anyway. Or I can win, but the "grand" prize is not too exciting.

    Very cool that Jere has photos in that book!

    I cannot see how Boston is the only team on paper unless your paper is written by a Sox fan.

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  12. allanMarch 8, 2011 at 1:54 PM

    has there ever been instances of a starting pitcher getting the same batter on one pitch per out throughout a game?

    Well, you could start by going through Nomar's game logs!

    I would assume, like a batter who come up after two guys have made out on the first pitch of an inning, that if someone had seen only two pitches in two PAs, he would be practically under orders to take at least one pitch the third time up.

    (I recently saw a note I had made about a Sox game in which Ichiro saw only 8 pitches in 5 AB.)

    To use Nomar as an example, check out this box score from April 12, 2000. It includes pitches seen -- and Nomar saw 12 in his 4 PA. I checked his 2000 logs and the # of pitches is not included. I checked Varitek's 2010 logs for a more recent year, but nope, not included there either.

    If you look through the game logs of a hacker, you would have to focus on games where they went 0-4 but had no K.

    (Matt Treanor saw 6 pitches in 3 AB on April 18, 2010. Same game, Nick Swisher saw 8 pitches in 4 AB.)

    I'd also be curious about the most pitches seen in a game.

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  13. mattymattyMarch 8, 2011 at 2:33 PM

    JoS W/L Contest = Baseball Season!! Yay!!

    ReplyDelete
  14. allanMarch 8, 2011 at 4:33 PM

    12 entries so far!

    # of entries
    2004 - 25
    2005 - 17
    2006 - 24
    2007 - 46
    2008 - 72 !
    2009 - 55
    2010 - 32

    ReplyDelete
  15. mattymattyMarch 8, 2011 at 10:23 PM

    If I win I'm selling the prize on e-bay.

    ReplyDelete
  16. allanMarch 9, 2011 at 5:13 AM

    If I win I'm selling the prize on e-bay.

    I assume you mean game night at our house and not the easy-to-find-and-buy book. (I'd be curious to see what that would go for...)

    ReplyDelete
  17. allanMarch 9, 2011 at 5:22 AM

    Boston is the only team, on paper anyway, that seems to be solid across the board in the division.

    Well ... offensive question marks at catcher and shortstop, a center fielder who missed almost all of 2010 with several rib injuries, a good hitting 1B who is coming over to a stronger league and a beast of a division (and coming back from shoulder surgery), two starters who have talent but turned in meh to bad years last year, a new mix in the bullpen, the fear that our total awesomeness may overwhelm us ...

    ReplyDelete
  18. JFettMarch 9, 2011 at 7:47 AM

    For tie breaker B, is it combined stolen bases for the entire season, or only while in a Red Sox uniform? I still feel Ells might not be in Boston when the season ends.

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  19. allanMarch 9, 2011 at 8:12 AM

    Boston-only SBs.

    ReplyDelete
  20. laura kMarch 9, 2011 at 12:44 PM

    Well, you could start by going through Nomar's game logs!

    LOL

    Please don't anybody sell dinner at our house on eBay. I have enough trolls in my life!

    ReplyDelete
  21. BryanMarch 15, 2011 at 10:54 AM

    emailed. long time reader. first post. let's bring this thing home!

    ReplyDelete
  22. allanMarch 15, 2011 at 12:47 PM

    welcome aboard!

    ReplyDelete