March 23, 2018

A Common Refrain: Yankees Will Edge Past Red Sox In AL East

There is a consistent theme to almost all of these 2018 predictions: the Red Sox will finish in second place in the AL East.

Boston Globe:
Dan Shaughnessy: AL East: Yankees. ... AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Angels. ... ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox. ... World Series: Nationals over Yankees.

Tara Sullivan: AL East: Red Sox. ... AL Wild Cards: Yankees, Mariners. ... ALCS: [Cleveland] over Red Sox. ... World Series: [Cleveland] over Dodgers.

Peter Abraham: AL East: Red Sox. #SaleWinsCy ... AL Wild Cards: Twins, Yankees. #StantonStruggles ... ALCS: Red Sox over [Cleveland]. #PriceIsRight ... World Series: Dodgers over Red Sox. #KershawIsKing

Nick Cafardo: AL East: Yankees. Haven't heard one good reason why not. ... AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Twins. ... World Series: Yankees over Nationals. Not even the great Max Scherzer can tame Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

Alex Speier: AL East: Yankees. ... AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Angels. ... ALCS: [Cleveland] over Red Sox. ... World Series: Nationals over [Cleveland].

Chad Finn: AL East: Red Sox. ... AL Wild Cards: Yankees, Angels. Judge and Stanton could match Mantle and Maris's 117 homers in '61 ... World Series: Astros over Cubs.
Stanton and Judge could combine for 117 home runs? Yes, it is possible (like it's possible a team could go 162-0), but Finn is smarter than that. (After totaling 111 last year, they won't reach 100 this season.) And Cafardo has not heard "one good reason" why the Yankees could lose the division because he refuses to remove the pinstriped cotton balls from his ears. (Or, more likely, doesn't even realize they are in there.)

Grant Brisbee posted his predictions at SB Nation. He has the Red Sox finishing second to New York, but beating the A's in the Wild Card Game and losing the ALDS to the Yankees. Brisbee's World Series pick: Yankees over Cardinals. ... SB Nation's Red Sox preview is here.

Bleacher Report has the Yankees winning 100 games and the AL East, with the Red Sox close behind with 96 wins. A second Bleacher Report article also has the Yankees (95 wins) and Red Sox (90 wins) finishing 1-2.

Baseball America picks the Yankees to win the division, with Boston second (and grabbing the Wild Card). Here are the World Series predictions for the eight BA writers:
Cleveland over Nationals in 6
Cleveland over Dodgers in 7
Cubs over Cleveland in 6
Cubs over Astros in 7
Dodgers over Yankees in 6
Dodgers over Cleveland in 7
Yankees over Nationals in 6
Yankees over Cubs in 7
USA Today has the Yankees (93) and Red Sox (89) in the East. "It's the Yankees, but not by much. Would adding Martinez put the Red Sox over the top? Their fate may more likely hinge on health and performance of their starting pitchers."

The Sporting News says the Yankees will win the East, but Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge will not combine for 100 homers. (Smart pick on the dongs, TSN.)

Sports Illustrated picks the Nationals to beat the Yankees in the 2018 World Series. The Red Sox are listed #5 among 10 teams that SI believes could win it all:
The Red Sox will bring back most of the same team that won 93 games in 2017 and should definitely be in the postseason conversation, even if it's only a Wild Card spot. ... Even stronger than the Boston starting lineup is the Boston starting rotiation [sic]. David Price and Chris Sale need no introduction, and Rick Porcello is only a single season removed from winning the Cy Young in 2016. Knuckleballer Steven Wright was fantastic in 2016, but missed most of 2017 with a knee injury. His return should be a serious boost to the Red Sox on the mound (assuming he's 100% healthy). Drew Pomeranz also won 17 games in 2017, giving the Red Sox a lights out pitching staff. Closer Craig Kimbrel is also one of the best in the business. However, the Red Sox might have to go through their most iconic rivals to get to the World Series...
Rotochamp's projected standings are "a composite of Baseball Prospectus, Davenport, and FanGraphs". The Yankees are atop the division with 95 wins, with the second-place Red Sox at 92.

I don't know what COED is, but it also has the Yankees-Red Sox atop the AL East.

1 comment:

FenFan said...

Regardless of whether Stanton and Judge combined for 17 home runs, 117 home runs, or 1,117 home runs, baseball is not one dimensional. My personal (okay, biased) opinion is that the Red Sox have the more balanced lineup: good starting pitching, a GREAT bullpen, and a solid offense that should perform better than a season ago. The Yankees have a good bullpen, decent starting pitching, and an offense that is relying too much on power to win the day. I see little reason to doubt that the Sox can win a third straight division title.