September 16, 2021

Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees Tied For Two AL Wild Card Spots

A six-run tenth inning on Wednesday night gave the Red Sox a 9-4 win in the rubber game of their three-game series against the Mariners. It was the first time Boston had come out on top in a series in Seattle since 2013.

No series wins in almost eight seasons? That doesn't sound very good. But how bad was it?

You can check all-time head-to-head games at Baseball Reference. Here is Red Sox-Mariners.

2013: July 8-11: Lost the first game 4-11, won the next three 11-8, 11-4, 8-7 (10).

2014: June 23-25: Lost the first two games 3-12 and 2-8, won the finale 5-4.

2015: May 14-17: Split a four-game set: 2-1, 1-2, 4-2, 0-5.

2016: August 1-4: Split a four-game set: 2-1, 4-5, 1-3, 3-2 (11).

2017: July 24-26: Lost the first two games 0-4 and 5-6 (13), won the finale 4-0.

2018: June 14-17: Split a four-game set: 2-1, 6-7, 0-1, 9-3.

2019: March 28-31: Lost three of four: 4-12, 7-6, 5-6, 8-10.

2021: September 13-15: Won two of three: 4-5, 8-4, 9-4 (10).

In the games between those two series wins (i.e., 2014-19), the Red Sox went 9-13 (.409) in Seattle, splitting three of the six series.

They also played a series at Fenway in each of those seasons. From 2013-21, Boston went 16-9 (.640).

Total record against Seattle, 2013-21: 30-24 (.556).

The Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees are tied for the two AL wild card spots. All three teams are 8 GB the Rays.

AL WC                         RUNDIFF  EXPWL
Blue Jays  82-64  .562  ---    +175    90-56
Yankees    82-64  .562  ---    + 34    77-69
Red Sox    83-65  .561  ---    + 60    80-68
Athletics  78-67  .538  3.5    + 60    79-66
Mariners   78-68  .534  4.0    - 65    66-80

The Blue Jays are eight games worse than their expected record. Toronto's run differential is second-best in the AL (Houston +190) and 4th best in MLB (Dodgers +244, Giants +184). Toronto "should" have a one-game lead over the Rays (+169) right now. Instead, they might not make the postseason. (The Mariners, 12 games better than their expected record, have no business being where they are.)

Boston, New York, Oakland, and Seattle are all 4-6 in their last 10 games. Toronto is 8-2.

The only AL East game today is MFY at Orioles. At 6:00 PM ET, New York leads 2-0 (T3).

2 comments:

Paul Hickman said...

Allan, can you please clarify what happens if Sox, Tor & MFY all finish tied ? I know it's unlikely, but not impossible

I presume the Team with the "best" record ( v the other 2 ) may well "avoid" the 1 game playoff ..... before the other 1 game playoff ? Although I can never keep up with the Tiebreaker Rules these days

Paul Hickman said...

Buck's Boffinheads came back to win ....... in the 10th !!!!!

And took 8 off MFY for the season

How do you like that "Blog Boy" ?