Gathering 2023 predictions from around the web:
ESPN:
According to 28 ESPN writers, analysts and editors:
AL East: Yankees (16 votes), Blue Jays (11), Rays (1)
AL Central: Guardians (15), White Sox (7), Twins (6)
AL West: Astros (26), Mariners (2)
AL Wild Cards: Mariners (20), Rays (17), Jays (16), Yankees (13), Angels (10), Texas (3), Astros (2), Twins (2), White Sox (1)
AL Champion: Astros (11), Yankees (8), Jays (6), Mariners (3)
NL East: Atlanta (21), Mets (6), Phillies (1)
NL Central: Cardinals (25), Brewers (3)
NL West: Padres (16), Dodgers (12)
NL Wild Cards: Phillies (22), Mets (21), Dodgers (16), Padres (11), Atlanta (7), Brewers (5), Cardinals (1), Giants (1)
NL Champion: Padres (11), Atlanta (10), Mets (5), Dodgers (1), Phillies (1)
World Series Champion: Padres (7), Atlanta (7), Yankees (5), Astros (4), Mets (2), Dodgers (1), Phillies (1), Blue Jays (1)
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani (25), Yordan Alvarez (1), Julio Rodriguez (1), Vladimir Guerrero (1)
NL MVP: Ronald Acuña (8), Juan Soto (6), Trea Turner (5), Manny Machado (4), Freddie Freeman (2), Mookie Betts (1), Nolan Arenado (1), Matt Olson (1)
AL Rookie of the Year: Gunnar Henderson (11), Masataka Yoshida (11), Anthony Volpe (6), Hunter Brown (1)
NL Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll (18), Miguel Vargas (5), Jordan Walker (4), Kodai Senga (1)
AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole (6), Kevin Gausman (3), Shohei Ohtani (3), Jacob deGrom (3), Alek Manoah (3), Cristian Javier (3), Dylan Cease (2), Shane Bieber (2), Shane McClanahan (1), Framber Valdez (1), Michael King (1)
NL Cy Young: Corbin Burnes (6), Julio Urias (4), Spencer Strider (4), Sandy Alcantara (3), Max Fried (3), Justin Verlander (2), Max Scherzer (2), Joe Musgrove (1), Aaron Nola (1), Logan Webb (1)
The Sporting News projection model:
works by using player projections from Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA and Fangraphs' Depth Charts, along with data on past team performances [and] uses that data, along with park factors, to simulate the 2023 season 20,000 times and logs each team's record and postseason performance. The results of the simulations are used to determine most likely records, division standings, playoff performances and World Series winners. The predicted standings shown in the article are the average wins and losses from the simulations.
AL East
Yankees 90-72
Blue Jays 90-72
Rays 81-81
Orioles 80-82
Red Sox 80-82There are some who might look at the Red Sox and be surprised by the number of projected wins. After all, this is a team that won just 78 games last year, and will now move forward without Xander Bogaerts. But bear in mind, last year's biggest issue for Boston was its pitching staff. In 2023, the Red Sox will have ace Chris Sale back and added veteran Corey Kluber to help provide some stability to what was a shaky rotation last year. Rafael Devers is one of the league's biggest stars and Masataka Yoshida is expected to have a productive first year in MLB. If Adalberto Mondesi can stay healthy — he has played in just 109 games since 2019 and has never played in more than 102 contests in a season — he could help reduce the blows of losing Bogaerts in free agency and Trevor Story to a long-term injury.
Team Win division Make playoffs First-round bye
Yankees 43.3% 82.3% 37.5%
Blue Jays 40.2% 79.4% 37.2%
Rays 6.7% 34.1% 5.2%
Orioles 5.1% 26.7% 3.8%
Red Sox 4.8% 26.1% 3.3%AL Central: Guardians (84-78), Twins (82-80), White Sox (81-81), Royals (75-87), Tigers (67-95)
AL West: Astros (90-72), Mariners (84-78), Angels (84-78), Texas (80-82), Athletics (63-99)
NL East: Atlanta (90-72), Mets (89-73), Phillies (87-75), Marlins (74-88), Nationals (71-91)
NL Central: Cardinals (87-75), Brewers (83-79), Cubs (78-84), Pirates (73-89), Reds (73-89)
NL West: Dodgers (89-73), Padres (88-74), Giants (80-82), Diamondbacks (79-83), Rockies (77-85)
AL Playoff Predictions
First-round byes: Yankees, Astros
Remaining playoff teams: Guardians, Blue Jays, Mariners, AngelsTeam Win pennant
Yankees 19.4%
Astros 19.2%
Blue Jays 18.9%
Guardians 7.6%
Mariners 7.2%
Angels 6.7%
Twins 4.9%
Rays 4.1%
White Sox 3.4%
Orioles 2.8%
Red Sox 2.7%
Texas 2.6%
Royals 0.7%
Tigers 0.0%
Athletics 0.0%NL Playoff Predictions
First-round byes: Atlanta, Dodgers
Remaining playoff teams: Cardinals, Mets, Padres, PhilliesTeam Win PennantWorld Series Prediction
Atlanta 17.4%
Dodgers 15.1%
Padres 14.6%
Mets 13.8%
Cardinals 11.7%
Phillies 11.3%
Brewers 6.2%
Giants 3.1%
Diamondbacks 2.1%
Cubs 1.8%
Rockies 1.4%
Marlins 0.6%
Reds 0.3%
Pirates 0.3%
Nationals 0.2%Team Win World Series
Yankees 10.5%
Astros 10.1%
Blue Jays 10.0%
Atlanta 9.3%
Dodgers 8.1%
Padres 7.6%
Mets 7.3%
Phillies 5.9%
Cardinals 5.8%
Guardians 3.4%
Mariners 3.2%
Angels 3.0%
Brewers 2.9%
Twins 2.0%
Rays 1.8%
Giants 1.3%
White Sox 1.3%
Orioles 1.2%
Red Sox 1.2%
Texas 1.1%
Diamondbacks 0.9%
Cubs 0.8%
Rockies 0.5%
Marlins 0.2%
Royals 0.2%
Reds 0.1%
Pirates 0.1%
Nationals 0.1%
Tigers 0.0%
Athletics 0.0%
World Series winner?
Padres 19.40%
Atlanta 16.10%
Blue Jays 16.10%
Astros 12.90%
Mariners 9.70%Also receiving multiple votes: New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals
Jim Bowden: I am a strong believer that you can't buy a championship. However, the Padres . . . They have three strong starters at the top of their rotation with Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. They have two impact closers with Josh Hader and Robert Suarez. And, most importantly, they have four special hitters — Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts — stacked in their lineup . . . all four can hit the elite pitching they’ll face in October.
Jayson Stark: Maybe it's because I've seen a lot of the Blue Jays this spring, but they have a lineup that keeps coming at you. They have better left-right balance in the lineup than in the past and the ability to use their legs to exploit the new rules. . . . Easily one of the five most talented teams in the game.
Katie Woo: It's incredibly hard to win back-to-back titles, and it hasn't been done in over two decades. Still, the Astros look poised to repeat. . . . Houston retained the majority of its World Series-winning roster from last season. . . . [T]he Astros are, once again, a team built for the long run.
Sam Blum: For the Mariners, it comes down to the starting rotation. It's a deep rotation with proven pitchers. Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, Marco Gonzales and George Kirby make up arguably the best rotation in the game. The Mariners also have a superstar in Julio Rodríguez, and a generally decent offense.
Most Overrated Team?
Yankees 25.80%Andrew Baggarly: The Yankees' lineup . . . looks brittle without much depth. And the pitching is already leaking oil in spring training. A team with Aaron Judge plus a healthy Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón will contend, but that's a pretty low bar for a franchise that hasn't won an AL pennant in 14 years.
Mets 19.40%
Dodgers 9.70%
Phillies 9.70%
Padres 9.70%
Cardinals 9.70%
Blue Jays 9.70%Sahadev Sharma: The injuries during spring have me legitimately concerned for their starting pitching group, which could derail their chances this year.
Who will win each division?
AL EastBlue Jays 45.2%Chad Jennings: There's a real chance four teams in this division make the playoffs.
Yankees 32.3%
Rays 12.9%
Orioles 9.7%
Red Sox 0.0%
Jim Bowden: I think the Blue Jays will win the AL East if they stay healthy. Their starting pitching is now deeper than the Yankees' (due to injuries to the Yankees' rotation), and they're now better defensively at most spots.
AL CentralCBS SportsGuardians 54.8%AL West
Twins 29.0%
White Sox 16.1%
Tigers 0.0%
Royals 0.0%Astros 83.9%NL East
Mariners 12.9%
Angels 3.2%
Texas 0.0%
Athletics 0.0%Atlanta 74.2%NL Central
Mets 12.9%
Phillies 12.9%
Marlins 0.0%
Nationals 0.0%Cardinals 87.1%NL West
Brewers 9.7%
Cubs 3.2%
Reds 0.0%
Pirates 0.0%Padres 61.3%AL MVP
Dodgers 38.7%
Diamondbacks 0.0%
Rockies 0.0%
Giants 0.0%Shohei Ohtani 58.1%NL MVP
Julio Rodríguez 9.7%
Mike Trout 9.7%
Aaron Judge 6.5%Juan Soto 25.8%AL Cy Young
Trea Turner 22.6%
Nolan Arenado 12.9%
Manny Machado 12.9%
Ronald Acuña 9.7%
Mookie Betts 9.7%Shane McClanahan 19.4%NL Cy Young
Luis Castillo 12.9%
Jacob deGrom 12.9%
Dylan Cease 9.7%
Alek Manoah 9.7%
Shohei Ohtani 9.7%Corbin Burnes 41.9%AL Rookie of the Year
Spencer Strider 12.9%
Sandy Alcantara 9.7%Gunnar Henderson 61.3%Chad Jennings: Masataka Yoshida looked good in spring training. Looked great in the World Baseball Classic. The Red Sox believe in his power enough to hit him cleanup.
Masataka Yoshida 22.6%
Anthony Volpe 12.9%
Triston Casas 3.2%
NL Rookie of the YearCorbin Carroll 58.1%
Jordan Walker 29.0%
Garrett Mitchell 6.5%
RJ Anderson: As always, my goal is to not look stupid rather than to look smart. . . . [T]his is as wide open a field in the National League as we've had in some time, and I'm excited to watch that three-team race in the East play out. . . . I went with the Padres over the Astros in the end, but I can foresee any number of other teams making it to and winning the Fall Classic.
Mike Axisa: I think the Astros are the best team in the AL but, honestly, I'm bored of picking them to go to the World Series every year, so I'm going with Toronto. . . . I like the way they're built for a short postseason series and believe this is the year they break through and advance in October. . . . [Atlanta has] so much youth and upside, plus they're great already. They're the best team in the league . . . I'm expecting and looking forward to a[n Atlanta]-Padres NLCS, and then Atlanta besting Toronto in a 1992 World Series rematch.
Kate Feldman: I have no intention of looking at these predictions again . . . so I'm winging it. I'm also going all in on the Angels. . . . [T]he NL East is by far the most interesting division and I think it's going to come down to the wire again . . .
Dayn Perry: I still default to the Astros being the best team in the AL in absence of additional major injuries. The Padres have the most loaded lineup in baseball once Tatis returns, and . . . they'll be aggressive in fortifying the rotation leading up to the trade deadline. Ohtani will set the tone for his upcoming free agency by topping 40 home runs at the plate and 200 strikeouts on the mound.
Stephen Pianovich: Is picking the Angels to make the playoffs so we get to watch Shohei Ohtani play meaningful high-stakes baseball again after his thunderous World Baseball Classic wishful thinking? . . . Probably.Matt Snyder: So many of these were very close . . . and yes, I'm a sucker for picking the Angels to make the playoffs. I'm aware. They always fail me, but I'm going back to the well. . . . I think the Astros are the number one team in baseball, but it's a bit boring to pick a repeat champ and I have the Padres as number two.
Yahoo
MLB.comHannah Keyser, Zach Crizer, Jack Baer, Chris Cwik and Liz Roscher:
World Series
Hannah Keyser: Astros over Mets
Zach Crizer: Atlanta over Yankees
Jack Baer: Mets over Astros
Chris Cwik: Blue Jays over Cardinals
Liz Roscher: Astros over MetsMVPs
Hannah Keyser: Wander Franco, Trea Turner
Zach Crizer: Jose Ramirez, Ronald Acuña
Jack Baer: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts
Chris Cwik: Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuña
Liz Roscher: Shohei Ohtani, Trea TurnerCy YoungsHannah Keyser: Cristian Javier, Aaron Nola
Zach Crizer: Luis Castillo, Zac Gallen
Jack Baer: Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer
Chris Cwik: Shane Bieber, Aaron Nola
Liz Roscher: Jacob deGrom, Aaron NolaOhtani HR and ERA
Hannah Keyser: 40 / 2.80
Zach Crizer: 36 / 3.17
Jack Baer: 43 / 3.30
Chris Cwik: 38 / 2.25
Liz Roscher: 35 / 2.60Also
Masataka Yoshida: AL Rookie of Year (Zach Crizer, Chris Cwik)
Brayan Bello: AL Breakout Pitcher (Keyser, Baer)
USA Today"87 MLB.com voters . . . weigh in on which teams they foresee winning the divisions, the Wild Card spots, the league pennants and, ultimately, which club will emerge as the World Series champion":
AL Divisions: Yankees, Guardians, Astros
AL Wild Cards: Mariners, Blue Jays and RaysAlthough he'll start the season on the injured list due to a left elbow strain, the addition of Carlos Rodón to a starting rotation already featuring Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes makes the Yankees even more of a force to be reckoned with . . . It's World Series or bust in the Bronx, with the Yanks not having reached the Fall Classic since 2009 – the 14 years since then is the second-longest period between World Series appearances in franchise history (1981-96 is the longest). They'll have to weather injuries early . . .
NL Divisions: Atlanta, Cardinals, Padres
NL Wild Cards: Dodgers, Phillies, Mets
World Series: Padres over Astros
AwardsMVP
AL: Shohei Ohtani
If not for a historic Aaron Judge season, Ohtani would already have multiple MVP Awards, with a chance for a three-peat this year. . . . Ohtani has been incredible the past two seasons, combining the production of an elite slugger (80 homers, 151 OPS+) and an ace pitcher (156 ERA+, 11.4 K/9) while putting up 9+ WAR in each year. And it's possible we haven't even seen his peak yet. . . . Ohtani was the overwhelming favorite in our poll.
NL: Juan Soto, Padres
Entering his age-24 season, Soto has two Top 5 MVP finishes on his résumé, placing fifth in 2020 and second in 2021. . . . In what was a "down" year for Soto, he still produced a 149 OPS+ with 27 homers and an MLB-leading 135 walks in 2022.
CY YOUNG
AL: Shohei Ohtani, Angels
If MLB.com's expert predictions come to fruition, Ohtani would be just the 12th player to win the MVP and Cy Young Awards in the same season, though none of the previous 11 were pulling double duty as a full-time hitter and pitcher. Ohtani made major strides on the mound last season, recording a 2.33 ERA with 219 strikeouts and a 1.01 WHIP over 166 innings. The performance, which included a 1.67 ERA over his final 19 starts, earned him a fourth-place finish in the AL Cy Young voting.
NL: Corbin Burnes, Brewers
Burnes won the NL Cy Young Award in 2021 and has earned votes in each of the past three years, including a seventh-place finish last season. The right-hander reached the 200-inning plateau for the first time in 2022, recording a 2.94 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP with an NL-leading 243 K's.. . . Our voters see this as a close race – Burnes, Max Fried, Sandy Alcantara and Spencer Strider all received at least 10 votes, while Urías and Verlander got eight apiece.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
AL: Gunnar Henderson, Orioles
MLB Pipeline’s No. 1 overall prospect, Henderson fared well after making his MLB debut late last season, showing a discerning eye at the plate and demonstrating the ability to consistently produce hard contact. He recorded a 123 OPS+ over 34 games for the O's and is set to hold an everyday role in 2023. With Pipeline's No. 5 prospect Anthony Volpe set to be on the Yankees' Opening Day roster and Japanese star Masataka Yoshida joining the Red Sox, the AL Rookie of the Year race should be competitive, but the majority of our voters like the 21-year-old Henderson to win it.
NL: Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks
A potential five-tool star, Carroll lived up to the hype in his first taste of MLB action after debuting last August. In addition to recording the fastest average sprint speed (30.7 ft/sec) in the Majors, Carroll (MLB Pipeline's No. 2 overall prospect) produced 15 extra-base hits (four homers) in 104 at-bats and posted a 133 OPS+. The D-backs were evidently so impressed by his performance that they signed him to an eight-year, $111 million extension.
Batting Average
AL: Yordan Alvarez, Astros
NL: Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
Freeman has hit .300 or better in six of the past seven seasons . . . Freeman came up just short of the NL lead last season, finishing at .325 while Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil led the league with a .326 average. Freeman's constant production at the plate – he led the National League in runs and the Majors in hits last season – was why our voters chose him to top the NL in batting average in 2023.
Home Runs
AL: Aaron Judge, Yankees
NL: Pete Alonso, Mets
Stolen Bases
AL: Bobby Witt, Royals
Witt was the fastest player in the AL last season – tied with [Texas'] Bubba Thompson and the Rays' Jose Siri – with a recorded sprint speed of 30.4 ft/sec. The Royals ran more than most clubs, stealing 104 bases, third most in the league. . . .
NL: Trea Turner, Phillies and Ronald Acuña, Atlanta (tie)
ERA
AL: Shohei Ohtani, Angels
Ohtani posted a sparkling 2.33 ERA as part of another outstanding 2022 campaign, but competition for the AL's ERA title was fierce, and it was ultimately Justin Verlander (1.75) who won out. Ohtani's likely to face a similar battle this season as the pool of AL Cy Young hopefuls continues to grow (and now includes Jacob deGrom).
NL: Sandy Alcantara, Marlins
Alcantara pitched a Major League-leading 228 2/3 innings and captured the 2022 NL Cy Young Award, but his ERA (2.28) was second in the league to that of the Dodgers' Julio Urías (2.16). Our panel projected Alcantara, whose 2022 ERA was below 2.00 as late as Aug. 21, to claim the NL ERA crown this season. The last eight seasons have seen eight different pitchers lead the NL in ERA; Clayton Kershaw (2011-14) was the last to repeat.
Bob Nightengale
AL Divisions: Blue Jays, Guardians, Astros
AL Wild Cards: Mariners, Rays, YankeesNL Divisions: Atlanta, Cardinals, Padres
NL Wild Cards: Phillies, Mets, DodgersWorld Series: Guardians over Phillies
AL MVP: Mike Trout, Angels
NL MVP: Trea Turner, PhilliesAL Cy Young: Emmanuel Clase, Guardians
NL Cy Young: Zac Gallen, DiamondbacksAL Rookie: Gunnar Henderson, Orioles
NL Rookie: Corbin Carroll, DiamondbacksGabe Lacques
AL Divisions: Yankees, Guardians, Astros
AL Wild Cards: Rays, Blue Jays, MarinersNL Divisions: Atlanta, Cardinals, Padres
NL Wild Cards: Dodgers, Phillies, MetsWorld Series: Padres over Yankees
AL MVP: Kyle Tucker, Astros
NL MVP: Juan Soto, PadresAL Cy Young: Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays
NL Cy Young: Spencer Strider, AtlantaAL Rookie:Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles
NL Rookie: Corbin Carroll, DiamondbacksSteve Gardner
AL Divisions: Blue Jays, Guardians, Astros
AL Wild Cards: Yankees, Mariners, AngelsNL Divisions: Atlanta, Cardinals, Padres
NL Wild Cards: Dodgers, Phillies, MetsWorld Series: Atlanta over Blue Jays
MVPs: Shohei Ohtani, Angels / Juan Soto, Padres
Cy Youngs: Shohei Ohtani, Angels / Aaron Nola, Phillies
Rookies: Gunnar Henderson, Orioles / NL Rookie: Corbin Carroll, DiamondbacksBobby Nightengale
AL Divisions: Blue Jays, White Sox, Astros
AL Wild Cards: Mariners, Yankees, TexasNL Divisions: Atlanta, Cardinals, Padres
NL Wild Cards: Dodgers, Phillies, MetsWorld Series: Mariners over Atlanta
MVPs: Shohei Ohtani, Angels / Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
Cy Youngs: Luis Castillo, Mariners / Aaron Nola, Phillies
Rookies: Gunnar Henderson, Orioles / Garrett Mitchell, BrewersStephen Borelli
AL Divisions: Yankees, Guardians, Astros
AL Wild Cards: Blue Jays, Rays, MarinersNL Divisions: Atlanta, Cardinals, Dodgers
NL Wild Cards: Padres, Mets, PhilliesWorld Series: Padres over Astros
MVPs: Jose Ramirez, Guardians / Ronald Acuña, Atlanta
Cy Youngs: Gerrit Cole, Yankees / Yu Darvish, Padres
Rookies: Gunnar Henderson, Orioles / Corbin Carroll, DiamondbacksScott Boeck
AL Divisions: Yankees, White Sox, Astros
AL Wild Cards: Blue Jays, Angels, GuardiansNL Divisions: Atlanta, Cardinals, Padres
NL Wild Cards: Dodgers, Mets, PhilliesWorld Series: Padres over Astros
MVPs: Shohei Ohtani, Angels / Manny Machado, Padres
Cy Youngs: Framber Valdez, Astros / Spencer Strider, Atlanta
Rookies: Gunnar Henderson, Orioles / Miguel Vargas, DodgersJesse Yomtov
AL Divisions: Yankees, Guardians, Astros
AL Wild Cards: Rays, Mariners, TwinsNL Divisions: Atlanta, Cardinals, Dodgers
NL Wild Cards: Padres, Mets, PhilliesWorld Series: Astros over Padres
MVPs: Julio Rodriguez, Mariners / Trea Turner, Phillies
Cy Youngs: Framber Valdez, Astros / Julio Urias, Dodgers
Rookies: Josh Jung, Texas / Garrett Mitchell, Brewers
FiveThirtyEight
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